Cutset Sampling for Bayesian Networks

The paper presents a new sampling methodology for Bayesian networks that samples only a subset of variables and applies exact inference to the rest. Cutset sampling is a network structure-exploiting application of the Rao-Blackwellisation principle to sampling in Bayesian networks. It improves convergence by exploiting memory-based inference algorithms. It can also be viewed as an anytime approximation of the exact cutset-conditioning algorithm developed by Pearl. Cutset sampling can be implemented efficiently when the sampled variables constitute a loop-cutset of the Bayesian network and, more generally, when the induced width of the networks graph conditioned on the observed sampled variables is bounded by a constant w. We demonstrate empirically the benefit of this scheme on a range of benchmarks

Rao-Blackwellised Particle Filtering via Data Augmentation

In this paper, we extend the Rao-Blackwellised particle filtering method to more complex hybrid models consisting of Gaussian latent variables and discrete observations. This is accomplished by augmenting the models with artificial variables that enable us to apply Rao-Blackwellisation. Other improvements include the design of an optimal importance proposal distribution and being able to swap the sampling an selection steps to handle outliers. We focus on sequential binary classifiers that consist of linear combinations of basis functions, whose coecients evolve according to a Gaussian smoothness prior. Our results show significant improvements