Beyond A/B Testing: Sequential Randomization for Developing Interventions in Scaled Digital Learning Environments

Randomized experiments ensure robust causal inference that are critical to effective learning analytics research and practice. However, traditional randomized experiments, like A/B tests, are limiting in large scale digital learning environments. While traditional experiments can accurately compare two treatment options, they are less able to inform how to adapt interventions to continually meet learners' diverse needs. In this work, we introduce a trial design for developing adaptive interventions in scaled digital learning environments -- the sequential randomized trial (SRT). With the goal of improving learner experience and developing interventions that benefit all learners at all times, SRTs inform how to sequence, time, and personalize interventions. In this paper, we provide an overview of SRTs, and we illustrate the advantages they hold compared to traditional experiments. We describe a novel SRT run in a large scale data science MOOC. The trial results contextualize how learner engagement can be addressed through inclusive culturally targeted reminder emails. We also provide practical advice for researchers who aim to run their own SRTs to develop adaptive interventions in scaled digital learning environments

Randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial of 40 mg/day of atorvastatin in reducing the severity of sepsis in ward patients (ASEPSIS Trial)

Introduction: Several observational studies suggest that statins modulate the pathophysiology of sepsis and may prevent its progression. The aim of this study was to determine if the acute administration of atorvastatin reduces sepsis progression in statin naïve patients hospitalized with sepsis. Methods: A single centre phase II randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial. Patients with sepsis were randomized to atorvastatin 40 mg daily or placebo for the duration of their hospital stay up to a maximum of 28-days. The primary end-point was the rate of sepsis progressing to severe sepsis during hospitalization. Results: 100 patients were randomized, 49 to the treatment with atorvastatin and 51 to placebo. Patients in the atorvastatin group had a significantly lower conversion rate to severe sepsis compared to placebo (4% vs. 24% p = 0.007.), with a number needed to treat of 5. No significant difference in length of hospital stay, critical care unit admissions, 28-day and 12-month readmissions or mortality was observed. Plasma cholesterol and albumin creatinine ratios were significantly lower at day 4 in the atorvastatin group (p < 0.0001 and p = 0.049 respectively). No difference in adverse events between the two groups was observed (p = 0.238). Conclusions: Acute administration of atorvastatin in patients with sepsis may prevent sepsis progression. Further multi-centre trials are required to verify these findings. Trial Registration: International Standard Randomized Control Trial Registry ISRCTN64637517

Failure to Preserve β-Cell Function With Mycophenolate Mofetil and Daclizumab Combined Therapy in Patients With New- Onset Type 1 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE This trial tested whether mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) alone or with daclizumab (DZB) could arrest the loss of insulin-producing β-cells in subjects with new-onset type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A multi-center, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-masked trial was initiated by Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet at 13 sites in North America and Europe. Subjects diagnosed with type 1 diabetes and with sufficient C-peptide within 3 months of diagnosis were randomized to either MMF alone, MMF plus DZB, or placebo, and then followed for 2 years. The primary outcome was the geometric mean area under the curve (AUC) C-peptide from the 2-h mixed meal tolerance test. RESULTS One hundred and twenty-six subjects were randomized and treated during the trial. The geometric mean C-peptide AUC at 2 years was unaffected by MMF alone or MMF plus DZB versus placebo. Adverse events were more frequent in the active therapy groups relative to the control group, but not significantly. CONCLUSIONS Neither MMF alone nor MMF in combination with DZB had an effect on the loss of C-peptide in subjects with new-onset type 1 diabetes. Higher doses or more targeted immunotherapies may be needed to affect the autoimmune process

WISDOM: history and early demise - was it inevitable?

In 1989, the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) agreed that, if feasible, a randomized controlled trial to assess the long-term risks and benefits of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) was a priority. Feasibility work began in 1990 and demonstrated that a large-scale multicenter trial was possible. An application for funding for a main trial was submitted to MRC in 1993 and, after extensive review, funding was released in late 1996. Set-up work for the trial - the Women's International Study of long Duration Oestrogen after Menopause (WISDOM) - began in 1997 with recruitment in 1999. In October 2002, following the early discontinuation of one arm of the US Women's Health Initiative HRT trial, the MRC decided to stop the WISDOM trial. This article, by the principal UK investigators of WISDOM, sets out the background and history of the trial

Lee Silverman voice treatment versus standard NHS speech and language therapy versus control in Parkinson's disease (PD COMM pilot):study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background: Parkinson’s disease is a common movement disorder affecting approximately 127,000 people in the UK, with an estimated two thirds having speech-related problems. Currently there is no preferred approach to speech and language therapy within the NHS and there is little evidence for the effectiveness of standard NHS therapy or Lee Silverman voice treatment. This trial aims to investigate the feasibility and acceptability of randomizing people with Parkinson’s disease-related speech or voice problems to Lee Silverman voice treatment or standard speech and language therapy compared to a no-intervention control. Methods/Design: The PD COMM pilot is a three arm, assessor-blinded, randomized controlled trial. Randomization will be computer-generated with participants randomized at a ratio of 1:1:1. Participants randomized to intervention arms will be immediately referred to the appropriate speech and language therapist. The target population are patients with a confirmed diagnosis of idiopathic Parkinson’s disease who have problems with their speech or voice. The Lee Silverman voice treatment intervention group will receive the standard regime of 16 sessions between 50 and 60 minutes in length over four weeks, with extra home practice. The standard speech and language therapy intervention group will receive a dose determined by patients’ individual needs, but not exceeding eight weeks of treatment. The control group will receive standard care with no speech and language therapy input for at least six months post-randomization. Outcomes will be assessed at baseline (pre-randomization) and post- randomization at three, six, and 12 months. The outcome measures include patient-reported voice measures, quality of life, resource use, and assessor-rated speech recordings. The recruitment aim is at least 60 participants over 21 months from 11 sites, equating to at least 20 participants in each arm of the trial. This trial is ongoing and recruitment commenced in May 2012. Discussion: This study will provide information on the feasibility and acceptability of randomizing participants to different speech and language therapies or control/deferred treatment. The findings relating to recruitment, treatment compliance, outcome measures, and effect size will inform a future phase III randomized controlled trial