Specious rules: an efficient and effective unifying method for removing misleading and uninformative patterns in association rule mining

We present theoretical analysis and a suite of tests and procedures for addressing a broad class of redundant and misleading association rules we call \emph{specious rules}. Specious dependencies, also known as \emph{spurious}, \emph{apparent}, or \emph{illusory associations}, refer to a well-known phenomenon where marginal dependencies are merely products of interactions with other variables and disappear when conditioned on those variables. The most extreme example is Yule-Simpson's paradox where two variables present positive dependence in the marginal contingency table but negative in all partial tables defined by different levels of a confounding factor. It is accepted wisdom that in data of any nontrivial dimensionality it is infeasible to control for all of the exponentially many possible confounds of this nature. In this paper, we consider the problem of specious dependencies in the context of statistical association rule mining. We define specious rules and show they offer a unifying framework which covers many types of previously proposed redundant or misleading association rules. After theoretical analysis, we introduce practical algorithms for detecting and pruning out specious association rules efficiently under many key goodness measures, including mutual information and exact hypergeometric probabilities. We demonstrate that the procedure greatly reduces the number of associations discovered, providing an elegant and effective solution to the problem of association mining discovering large numbers of misleading and redundant rules.Comment: Note: This is a corrected version of the paper published in SDM'17. In the equation on page 4, the range of the sum has been correcte

Pruning Derivative Partial Rules During Impact Rule Discovery

Abstract. Because exploratory rule discovery works with data that is only a sample of the phenomena to be investigated, some resulting rules may appear interesting only by chance. Techniques are developed for automatically discarding statistically insignificant exploratory rules that cannot survive a hypothesis with regard to its ancestors. We call such insignificant rules derivative extended rules. In this paper, we argue that there is another type of derivative exploratory rules, which is derivative with regard to their children. We also argue that considerable amount of such derivative partial rules can not be successfully removed using existing rule pruning techniques. We propose a new technique to address this problem. Experiments are done in impact rule discovery to evaluate the effect of this derivative partial rule filter. Results show that the inherent problem of too many resulting rules in exploratory rule discovery is alleviated