Reliability analysis of distribution systems with photovoltaic generation using a power flow simulator and a parallel Monte Carlo approach

This paper presents a Monte Carlo approach for reliability assessment of distribution systems with distributed generation using parallel computing. The calculations are carried out with a royalty-free power flow simulator, OpenDSS (Open Distribution System Simulator). The procedure has been implemented in an environment in which OpenDSS is driven from MATLAB. The test system is an overhead distribution system represented by means of a three-phase model that includes protective devices. The paper details the implemented procedure, which can be applied to systems with or without distributed generation, includes an illustrative case study and summarizes the results derived from the analysis of the test system during one year. The goal is to evaluate the test system performance considering different scenarios with different level of system automation and reconfiguration, and assess the impact that distributed photovoltaic generation can have on that performance. Several reliability indices, including those related to the impact of distributed generation, are obtained for every scenario.Postprint (published version

Estimation of summary protective efficacy using a frailty mixture model for recurrent event time data.

Recurrent event time data are common in experimental and observational studies. The analytic strategy needs to consider three issues: within-subject event dependence, between-subject heterogeneity in event rates, and the possibility of a nonsusceptible fraction. Motivated by the need to estimate the summary protective efficacy from recurrent event time data as seen in many infectious disease clinical trials, we propose a two-part frailty mixture model that simultaneously accommodates all the three issues. In terms of vaccine action models, the proposed model is a combination of the 'all-or-none' and the 'leaky' models, and the summary protective efficacy is a unified measure of the vaccine's twofold effects in completely or partially protecting the vaccinated individuals against the study event. The model parameters of interest are estimated using the expectation-maximization algorithm with their respective variances estimated using Louis's formula for the expectation-maximization algorithm. The summary protective efficacy is estimated by a composite estimand with its variance estimated using the delta method. The performance of the proposed estimation approach is investigated by a simulation study. Data from a trial of malaria prophylaxis conducted in Ghana are reanalyzed

Spatio-temporal correlations can drastically change the response of a MAPK pathway

Multisite covalent modification of proteins is omnipresent in eukaryotic cells. A well-known example is the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) cascade, where in each layer of the cascade a protein is phosphorylated at two sites. It has long been known that the response of a MAPK pathway strongly depends on whether the enzymes that modify the protein act processively or distributively: distributive mechanism, in which the enzyme molecules have to release the substrate molecules in between the modification of the two sites, can generate an ultrasensitive response and lead to hysteresis and bistability. We study by Green's Function Reaction Dynamics, a stochastic scheme that makes it possible to simulate biochemical networks at the particle level and in time and space, a dual phosphorylation cycle in which the enzymes act according to a distributive mechanism. We find that the response of this network can differ dramatically from that predicted by a mean-field analysis based on the chemical rate equations. In particular, rapid rebindings of the enzyme molecules to the substrate molecules after modification of the first site can markedly speed up the response, and lead to loss of ultrasensitivity and bistability. In essence, rapid enzyme-substrate rebindings can turn a distributive mechanism into a processive mechanism. We argue that slow ADP release by the enzymes can protect the system against these rapid rebindings, thus enabling ultrasensitivity and bistability

Distribution System Outage Detection using Consumer Load and Line Flow Measurements

An outage detection framework for power distribution networks is proposed. Given the tree structure of the distribution system, a method is developed combining the use of real-time power flow measurements on edges of the tree with load forecasts at the nodes of the tree. A maximum a posteriori detector {\color{black} (MAP)} is formulated for arbitrary number and location of outages on trees which is shown to have an efficient detector. A framework relying on the maximum missed detection probability is used for optimal sensor placement and is solved for tree networks. Finally, a set of case studies is considered using feeder data from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratories. We show that a 10\% loss in mean detection reliability network wide reduces the required sensor density by 60 \% for a typical feeder if efficient use of measurements is performed.Comment: Complete rework of result

Deployment mechanisms on Pioneer Venus probes

Deployment mechanisms were developed to position scientific instruments during probe descent into the Venus atmosphere. Each mechanism includes a provision for pyrotechnic release of the enclosure door, negator springs for positive deployment torque, and an active damper using a shunted dc motor. The deployment time requirement is under 2 seconds, and the deployment shock must be less than 100 g's. The mechanism is completely dry lubricated and constructed mainly of titanium for high strength and high temperature stability. The mechanism was qualified for descent decelerations up to 565 g's and for instrument alignment up to 940 F. The mechanism requirements, the hardware design details, the analytical simulations, and the qualification testing are described