Making the great transformation, November 13, 14, and 15, 2003

This repository item contains a single issue of the Pardee Conference Series, a publication series that began publishing in 2006 by the Boston University Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future. This Conference took place during November 13, 14, and 15, 2003. Co-organized by Cutler Cleveland and Adil Najam.The conference discussants and participants analyze why transitions happen, and why they matter. Transitions are those wide-ranging changes in human organization and well being that can be convincingly attributed to a concerted set of choices that make the world that was significantly and recognizably different from the world that becomes. Transition scholars argue that that history does not just stumble along a pre-determined path, but that human ingenuity and entrepreneurship have the ability to fundamentally alter its direction. However, our ability to ‘will’ such transitions remains in doubt. These doubts cannot be removed until we have a better understanding of how transitions work

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Military Defence and Security

The twenty-first century is now being shaped by a multipolar system characterized by techno-nationalism and a post-Bretton Woods order. In the face of a rapidly evolving digital era, international cooperation will be critical to ensuring peace and security. Information sharing, expert conferences and multilateral dialogue can help the world's nation-states and their militaries develop a better understanding of one another's capabilities and intentions. As a global middle power, Canada could be a major partner in driving this effort. This paper explores the development of military-specific capabilities in the context of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning. Building on Canadian defence policy, the paper outlines the military applications of AI and the resources needed to manage next-generation military operations, including multilateral engagement and technology governance

Scenarios and futures in the governance of sustainable innovation pathways: the case of hydrogen energy

Global climate change and other sustainability challenges demand a transition to more sustainable systems. The long-term and complex nature of such transitions invites longterm planning, but it also suggests that the future is unpredictable and contested. Moreover, the act of envisioning, forecasting and planning for possible futures itself influences transitions, because visions and expectations form part of the institutional environment that shapes the behaviour of policymakers, innovators and others. Futures activities are thus part of the process of transition. A key source of technological expectations and visions are published technology futures documents, and the processes that are used to develop them. How are such published futures created, and why are they produced? How can we assess the quality of published futures? What role do computer models play in shaping such futures, and how can computer models be used to open up futures to alternative framings and perspectives? How can published futures be improved in order to facilitate the governance of transitions to sustainability? These are the questions that motivate this PhD, and which are the subject of the portfolio of publications and this commentary. These questions are addressed through a case: hydrogen energy technologies. A key theme that runs throughout the publications is that the future is a contested space in which actors bid for their preferred futures, express their interests and their perspectives, and attempt to influence the processes of both appraisal of and commitment to particular futures. The thesis presents a variety of ways in which participatory scenario development can be combined with other methods to ‘open up’ futures and enable consideration and representation of diverse perspectives, deep uncertainty, and plural pathways