The demand for money, financial innovation, and the welfare cost of inflation: an analysis with household data

We use microeconomic data on households to estimate the parameters of the demand for currency derived from a generalized Baumol-Tobin model. Our data set contains information on average currency, deposits, and other interest-bearing assets; the number of trips to the bank; the size of withdrawals; and ownership and use of ATM cards. We model the demand for currency accounting for adoption of new transaction technologies and the decision to hold interest-bearing assets. The interest rate and expenditure flow elasticities of the demand for currency are close to the theoretical values implied by standard inventory models. However, we find significant differences between individuals with an ATM card and those without. The estimates of the demand for currency allow us to calculate a measure of the welfare cost of inflation analogous to Bailey's triangle, but based on a rigorous microeconometric framework. The welfare cost of inflation varies considerably within the population but never turns out to be very large (about 0.1 percent of consumption or less). Our results are robust to various changes in the econometric specification. In addition to the main results based on the average stock of currency, the model receives further support from the analysis of the number of trips to and average withdrawals from the bank and the ATM

The demand for money, financial innovation, and the welfare cost of inflation: an analysis with household data

We use microeconomic data on households to estimate the parameters of the demand for currency derived from a generalized Baumol-Tobin model. Our data set contains information on average currency, deposits, and other interest-bearing assets; the number of trips to the bank; the size of withdrawals; and ownership and use of ATM cards. We model the demand for currency accounting for adoption of new transaction technologies and the decision to hold interest-bearing assets. The interest rate and expenditure flow elasticities of the demand for currency are close to the theoretical values implied by standard inventory models. However, we find significant differences between individuals with an ATM card and those without. The estimates of the demand for currency allow us to calculate a measure of the welfare cost of inflation analogous to Bailey's triangle, but based on a rigorous microeconometric framework. The welfare cost of inflation varies considerably within the population but never turns out to be very large (about 0.1 percent of consumption or less). Our results are robust to various changes in the econometric specification. In addition to the main results based on the average stock of currency, the model receives further support from the analysis of the number of trips to and average withdrawals from the bank and the ATM

The Demand for Money, Financial Innovation, and the Welfare Cost of Inflation: An Analysis with Households' Data

How far can shoe-leather go in explaining the welfare cost of inflation? Using a unique set of microeconomic data on households, we estimate the parameters of the demand for money derived from a generalized Baumol-Tobin model. Our data set contains information on average holdings of cash, on deposits and other interest bearing accounts, on the number of trips to the bank, on the size of withdrawals and on the ownership and use of ATM cards. We model the adoption of new transaction technologies and use these estimates to correct for the selectivity bias induced by some households choosing to hold no interest bearing assets and some to use an ATM card. The interest rate and expenditure flow elasticities of the demand for cash are close to the theoretical values implied by standard inventory models. However, we find significant differences between the individuals with an ATM card and those without. The estimates of the demand for cash allow us to calculate a measure of the welfare cost of inflation analogous to Bailey's triangle, but based on a rigorous microeconometric framework. The welfare cost of inflation varies considerably within the population, but never turns out to be very large (about 0.1 percent of consumption or less). Our results are robust to various changes in the specification. In addition to the main results based on the average stock of cash held, we provide some evidence based on the number of trips to the bank and on the average withdrawals that confirm our basic findings.demand for money, financial innovation, welfare cost of inflation

Bank mergers and the dynamics of deposit interest rates

Despite extensive research interest in the last decade, the banking literature has not reached a consensus on the impact of bank mergers on deposit rates. In particular, results on the dynamics of deposit rates surrounding bank mergers vary substantially across studies. In this paper, we aim for a comprehensive empirical analysis of a bank merger’s impact on deposit rate dynamics. We base the analysis on a unique dataset comprising deposit rates of 624 U.S. banks with a monthly frequency for the time period 1997–2006. These data are matched with individual bank and local market characteristics and the complete list of bank mergers in the United States. The data allow us to track the dynamics of bank mergers while controlling for the rigidity of the deposit rates and for a range of merger, bank, and local market features. An innovation of our work is the introduction of an econometric approach for estimating the change of the deposit rates given their rigidity.Bank mergers ; Bank deposits

Bank mergers and the dynamics of deposit interest rates

Despite extensive research interest in the last decade, the banking literature has not reached a consensus on the impact of bank mergers on deposit rates. In particular, results on the dynamics of deposit rates surrounding bank mergers vary substantially across studies. In this paper, we aim for a comprehensive empirical analysis of a bank merger's impact on deposit rate dynamics. We base the analysis on a unique dataset comprising deposit rates of 624 US banks with a monthly frequency for the time period 1997-2006. These data are matched with individual bank and local market characteristics and the complete list of bank mergers in the US. The data allow us to track the dynamics of bank mergers while controlling for the rigidity of the deposit rates and for a range of merger, bank and local market features. An innovation of our work is the introduction of an econometric approach of estimating the change of the deposit rates given their rigidity. --Deposit rate dynamics,bank mergers,deposit rate rigidity

Prospects for immigrant-native wealth assimilation: evidence from financial market participation

Because financial transactions are important for wealth accumulation, and rely on trust and confidence in institutions, the financial market behavior of immigrants can provide important insights into the assimilation process. Compared to the native-born, immigrants are less likely to own savings and checking accounts and these differences tend to persist over time. Our results suggest that a large share of the immigrant-native gap in financial market participation is driven by group differences in education, income, and geographic location. For a given immigrant, the likelihood of financial market participation decreases with higher levels of ethnic concentration in the metropolitan area.Financial institutions ; Immigrants ; Wealth

Giving children a better start: preschool attendance and school-age profiles

We study the effect of pre-primary education on children's subsequent school outcomes by exploiting a unique feature of the Uruguayan household survey (ECH) that collects retrospective information on preschool attendance. A rapid expansion in the supply of pre-primary places over the last decade generates sufficient variation in the data to warrant identification. Using a within household estimator that only exploits differences in exposure across siblings, we find small gains from preschool attendance at early ages that magnify as children grow up. By age 16, children that attended preschool have accumulated more than 1 extra year of education and are 27 percentage points more likely to be in school compared to their siblings with no preschool education. We speculate that early grade repetition harms subsequent school progression and that pre-primary education appears as a successful policy option to prevent early grade failure and its long lasting consequences

Competitiveness and the external trade performance of Greece in the 1990s: a cross-sectoral investigation.

We examine Greece’s external trade following accession to the EU, placing particular emphasis on the 1990s. A large part of our analysis is based on unpublished, disaggregated data sets. Our main findings are: (i) in the 1990s Greece sustained heavy competitiveness losses in those sectors where she traditionally held a comparative advantage; (ii) Greek trade becomes increasingly intra-industry, especially in those sectors where Greece holds a comparative advantage; (iii) regarding imports, EU participation has caused mutually offsetting, stable over time, trade creation for the EU and trade diversion for third countries; (iv) EU participation has not boosted Greek exports. A negative structural break in exports to the Netherlands and Germany (Greece’s most important exporting market) has occurred in the 1990s (v) Demand for Greek exports is highly sensitive to movements of the real exchange rate and presents high income-elasticity. Hence, the deterioration of Greece’s trade deficit in the 1990s is related to the strong-drachma policy and unfavourable external conditions. Overall, our findings indicate that the real sector of the Greek economy has not yet closed the performance gap dividing it from the EMU’s hard core. JEL Classification: F02, F10, F15 Keywords: Greece, EU, trade, competitiveness, 1990s. We would like to thank Christos Ioannidis, Yannis Georgellis and Kul Luintel for useful suggestions and comments. The usual disclaimer applies. *Corresponding author: Michael Arghyrou, Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University, Uxbridge, London, UB8 3PH; United Kingdom. – e-mail: [email protected]

Technological change and the demand for currency: An analysis with household data

Advances in transaction technology allow agents to economize on the cost of cash management. We argue that accounting for the impact of new transaction technologies on currency holding behaviour is important to obtain theoretically consistent estimates of the demand for money. We modify a standard inventory model to study the effect of withdrawal technology on the demand for currency. An empirical specification for households’ demand schedule is suggested, in which both the level of currency holdings and the interest rate elasticity of demand depend on the withdrawal technology available to agents (e.g. ATM card ownership or a high/low density of bank branches, ATMs). The theoretical implications are tested using a unique panel of Italian household data (on currency holdings, deposit interest rates, consumption, development of banking services, etc.) for the period 1989-2004.money demand, inventory models, technological change