Probabilities on Sentences in an Expressive Logic

Automated reasoning about uncertain knowledge has many applications. One difficulty when developing such systems is the lack of a completely satisfactory integration of logic and probability. We address this problem directly. Expressive languages like higher-order logic are ideally suited for representing and reasoning about structured knowledge. Uncertain knowledge can be modeled by using graded probabilities rather than binary truth-values. The main technical problem studied in this paper is the following: Given a set of sentences, each having some probability of being true, what probability should be ascribed to other (query) sentences? A natural wish-list, among others, is that the probability distribution (i) is consistent with the knowledge base, (ii) allows for a consistent inference procedure and in particular (iii) reduces to deductive logic in the limit of probabilities being 0 and 1, (iv) allows (Bayesian) inductive reasoning and (v) learning in the limit and in particular (vi) allows confirmation of universally quantified hypotheses/sentences. We translate this wish-list into technical requirements for a prior probability and show that probabilities satisfying all our criteria exist. We also give explicit constructions and several general characterizations of probabilities that satisfy some or all of the criteria and various (counter) examples. We also derive necessary and sufficient conditions for extending beliefs about finitely many sentences to suitable probabilities over all sentences, and in particular least dogmatic or least biased ones. We conclude with a brief outlook on how the developed theory might be used and approximated in autonomous reasoning agents. Our theory is a step towards a globally consistent and empirically satisfactory unification of probability and logic.Comment: 52 LaTeX pages, 64 definiton/theorems/etc, presented at conference Progic 2011 in New Yor

Semantics, Modelling, and the Problem of Representation of Meaning -- a Brief Survey of Recent Literature

Over the past 50 years many have debated what representation should be used to capture the meaning of natural language utterances. Recently new needs of such representations have been raised in research. Here I survey some of the interesting representations suggested to answer for these new needs.Comment: 15 pages, no figure

If P, Then P!

The Identity principle says that conditionals with the form 'If p, then p' are logical truths. Identity is overwhelmingly plausible, and has rarely been explicitly challenged. But a wide range of conditionals nonetheless invalidate it. I explain the problem, and argue that the culprit is the principle known as Import-Export, which we must thus reject. I then explore how we can reject Import-Export in a way that still makes sense of the intuitions that support it, arguing that the differences between indicative and subjunctive conditionals play a key role in solving this puzzle

Stochastic Relational Presheaves and Dynamic Logic for Contextuality

Presheaf models provide a formulation of labelled transition systems that is useful for, among other things, modelling concurrent computation. This paper aims to extend such models further to represent stochastic dynamics such as shown in quantum systems. After reviewing what presheaf models represent and what certain operations on them mean in terms of notions such as internal and external choices, composition of systems, and so on, I will show how to extend those models and ideas by combining them with ideas from other category-theoretic approaches to relational models and to stochastic processes. It turns out that my extension yields a transitional formulation of sheaf-theoretic structures that Abramsky and Brandenburger proposed to characterize non-locality and contextuality. An alternative characterization of contextuality will then be given in terms of a dynamic modal logic of the models I put forward.Comment: In Proceedings QPL 2014, arXiv:1412.810

Real-time and Probabilistic Temporal Logics: An Overview

Over the last two decades, there has been an extensive study on logical formalisms for specifying and verifying real-time systems. Temporal logics have been an important research subject within this direction. Although numerous logics have been introduced for the formal specification of real-time and complex systems, an up to date comprehensive analysis of these logics does not exist in the literature. In this paper we analyse real-time and probabilistic temporal logics which have been widely used in this field. We extrapolate the notions of decidability, axiomatizability, expressiveness, model checking, etc. for each logic analysed. We also provide a comparison of features of the temporal logics discussed