Probability, propensity and probabilities of propensities (and of probabilities)

The process of doing Science in condition of uncertainty is illustrated with a toy experiment in which the inferential and the forecasting aspects are both present. The fundamental aspects of probabilistic reasoning, also relevant in real life applications, arise quite naturally and the resulting discussion among non-ideologized, free-minded people offers an opportunity for clarifications.Comment: Invited contribution to the proceedings MaxEnt 2016 based on the talk given at the workshop (Ghent, Belgium, 10-15 July 2016), supplemented by work done within the program Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science at the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridg

Multivariate Juggling Probabilities

We consider refined versions of Markov chains related to juggling introduced by Warrington. We further generalize the construction to juggling with arbitrary heights as well as infinitely many balls, which are expressed more succinctly in terms of Markov chains on integer partitions. In all cases, we give explicit product formulas for the stationary probabilities. The normalization factor in one case can be explicitly written as a homogeneous symmetric polynomial. We also refine and generalize enriched Markov chains on set partitions. Lastly, we prove that in one case, the stationary distribution is attained in bounded time.Comment: 28 pages, 5 figures, final versio

Multivariate winning probabilities

The research reported in this paper has been supported by Project TIN2014-59543-

On the inclusion probabilities in some unequal probability sampling plans without replacement

Comparison results are obtained for the inclusion probabilities in some unequal probability sampling plans without replacement. For either successive sampling or H\'{a}jek's rejective sampling, the larger the sample size, the more uniform the inclusion probabilities in the sense of majorization. In particular, the inclusion probabilities are more uniform than the drawing probabilities. For the same sample size, and given the same set of drawing probabilities, the inclusion probabilities are more uniform for rejective sampling than for successive sampling. This last result confirms a conjecture of H\'{a}jek (Sampling from a Finite Population (1981) Dekker). Results are also presented in terms of the Kullback--Leibler divergence, showing that the inclusion probabilities for successive sampling are more proportional to the drawing probabilities.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/10-BEJ337 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Transient handover blocking probabilities in road covering cellular mobile networks

This paper investigates handover and fresh call blocking probabilities for subscribers moving along a road in a traffic jam passing through consecutive cells of a wireless network. It is observed and theoretically motivated that the handover blocking probabilities show a sharp peak in the initial part of a traffic jam roughly at the moment when the traffic jam starts covering a new cell. The theoretical motivation relates handover blocking probabilities to blocking probabilities in the M/D/C/C queue with time-varying arrival rates. We provide a numerically efficient recursion for these blocking probabilities. \u