Towards a Method of Building Causal Bayesian Networks for Prognostic Decision Support

We describe a method of building a decision support system for clinicians deciding between interventions, using Bayesian Networks (BNs). Using a case study of the amputation of traumatically injured extremities, we explain why existing prognostic models used as decision aids have not been successful in practice. A central idea is the importance of modeling causal relationships, both so that the model confiorms to the clinician's way of reasoning and so that we can predict the probable effect of the available interventions. Since we cannot always depend on data from controlled trials, we depend instead on 'clinical knowledge' and it is therefore vital that this elicited rigorously. We propose three stages of knowledge modeling covering the treatment process, the information generated by the process and the causal relationship. These stages lead to a causal Bayesian network, which is used to predict the patient outcome under different treatment options

What is Computational Intelligence and where is it going?

What is Computational Intelligence (CI) and what are its relations with Artificial Intelligence (AI)? A brief survey of the scope of CI journals and books with ``computational intelligence'' in their title shows that at present it is an umbrella for three core technologies (neural, fuzzy and evolutionary), their applications, and selected fashionable pattern recognition methods. At present CI has no comprehensive foundations and is more a bag of tricks than a solid branch of science. The change of focus from methods to challenging problems is advocated, with CI defined as a part of computer and engineering sciences devoted to solution of non-algoritmizable problems. In this view AI is a part of CI focused on problems related to higher cognitive functions, while the rest of the CI community works on problems related to perception and control, or lower cognitive functions. Grand challenges on both sides of this spectrum are addressed

Bayesian Estimation of White Matter Atlas from High Angular Resolution Diffusion Imaging

We present a Bayesian probabilistic model to estimate the brain white matter atlas from high angular resolution diffusion imaging (HARDI) data. This model incorporates a shape prior of the white matter anatomy and the likelihood of individual observed HARDI datasets. We first assume that the atlas is generated from a known hyperatlas through a flow of diffeomorphisms and its shape prior can be constructed based on the framework of large deformation diffeomorphic metric mapping (LDDMM). LDDMM characterizes a nonlinear diffeomorphic shape space in a linear space of initial momentum uniquely determining diffeomorphic geodesic flows from the hyperatlas. Therefore, the shape prior of the HARDI atlas can be modeled using a centered Gaussian random field (GRF) model of the initial momentum. In order to construct the likelihood of observed HARDI datasets, it is necessary to study the diffeomorphic transformation of individual observations relative to the atlas and the probabilistic distribution of orientation distribution functions (ODFs). To this end, we construct the likelihood related to the transformation using the same construction as discussed for the shape prior of the atlas. The probabilistic distribution of ODFs is then constructed based on the ODF Riemannian manifold. We assume that the observed ODFs are generated by an exponential map of random tangent vectors at the deformed atlas ODF. Hence, the likelihood of the ODFs can be modeled using a GRF of their tangent vectors in the ODF Riemannian manifold. We solve for the maximum a posteriori using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm and derive the corresponding update equations. Finally, we illustrate the HARDI atlas constructed based on a Chinese aging cohort of 94 adults and compare it with that generated by averaging the coefficients of spherical harmonics of the ODF across subjects

Rotationally-invariant mapping of scalar and orientational metrics of neuronal microstructure with diffusion MRI

We develop a general analytical and numerical framework for estimating intra- and extra-neurite water fractions and diffusion coefficients, as well as neurite orientational dispersion, in each imaging voxel. By employing a set of rotational invariants and their expansion in the powers of diffusion weighting, we analytically uncover the nontrivial topology of the parameter estimation landscape, showing that multiple branches of parameters describe the measurement almost equally well, with only one of them corresponding to the biophysical reality. A comprehensive acquisition shows that the branch choice varies across the brain. Our framework reveals hidden degeneracies in MRI parameter estimation for neuronal tissue, provides microstructural and orientational maps in the whole brain without constraints or priors, and connects modern biophysical modeling with clinical MRI.Comment: 25 pages, 12 figures, elsarticle two-colum