Automatic Differentiation Variational Inference

Probabilistic modeling is iterative. A scientist posits a simple model, fits it to her data, refines it according to her analysis, and repeats. However, fitting complex models to large data is a bottleneck in this process. Deriving algorithms for new models can be both mathematically and computationally challenging, which makes it difficult to efficiently cycle through the steps. To this end, we develop automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI). Using our method, the scientist only provides a probabilistic model and a dataset, nothing else. ADVI automatically derives an efficient variational inference algorithm, freeing the scientist to refine and explore many models. ADVI supports a broad class of models-no conjugacy assumptions are required. We study ADVI across ten different models and apply it to a dataset with millions of observations. ADVI is integrated into Stan, a probabilistic programming system; it is available for immediate use

A Factor Graph Approach to Automated Design of Bayesian Signal Processing Algorithms

The benefits of automating design cycles for Bayesian inference-based algorithms are becoming increasingly recognized by the machine learning community. As a result, interest in probabilistic programming frameworks has much increased over the past few years. This paper explores a specific probabilistic programming paradigm, namely message passing in Forney-style factor graphs (FFGs), in the context of automated design of efficient Bayesian signal processing algorithms. To this end, we developed "ForneyLab" (https://github.com/biaslab/ForneyLab.jl) as a Julia toolbox for message passing-based inference in FFGs. We show by example how ForneyLab enables automatic derivation of Bayesian signal processing algorithms, including algorithms for parameter estimation and model comparison. Crucially, due to the modular makeup of the FFG framework, both the model specification and inference methods are readily extensible in ForneyLab. In order to test this framework, we compared variational message passing as implemented by ForneyLab with automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI) and Monte Carlo methods as implemented by state-of-the-art tools "Edward" and "Stan". In terms of performance, extensibility and stability issues, ForneyLab appears to enjoy an edge relative to its competitors for automated inference in state-space models.Comment: Accepted for publication in the International Journal of Approximate Reasonin

OBOE: Collaborative Filtering for AutoML Model Selection

Algorithm selection and hyperparameter tuning remain two of the most challenging tasks in machine learning. Automated machine learning (AutoML) seeks to automate these tasks to enable widespread use of machine learning by non-experts. This paper introduces OBOE, a collaborative filtering method for time-constrained model selection and hyperparameter tuning. OBOE forms a matrix of the cross-validated errors of a large number of supervised learning models (algorithms together with hyperparameters) on a large number of datasets, and fits a low rank model to learn the low-dimensional feature vectors for the models and datasets that best predict the cross-validated errors. To find promising models for a new dataset, OBOE runs a set of fast but informative algorithms on the new dataset and uses their cross-validated errors to infer the feature vector for the new dataset. OBOE can find good models under constraints on the number of models fit or the total time budget. To this end, this paper develops a new heuristic for active learning in time-constrained matrix completion based on optimal experiment design. Our experiments demonstrate that OBOE delivers state-of-the-art performance faster than competing approaches on a test bed of supervised learning problems. Moreover, the success of the bilinear model used by OBOE suggests that AutoML may be simpler than was previously understood