Denoising diffusion probabilistic models for probabilistic energy forecasting

Scenario-based probabilistic forecasts have become vital for decision-makers in handling intermittent renewable energies. This paper presents a recent promising deep learning generative approach called denoising diffusion probabilistic models. It is a class of latent variable models which have recently demonstrated impressive results in the computer vision community. However, to our knowledge, there has yet to be a demonstration that they can generate high-quality samples of load, PV, or wind power time series, crucial elements to face the new challenges in power systems applications. Thus, we propose the first implementation of this model for energy forecasting using the open data of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014. The results demonstrate this approach is competitive with other state-of-the-art deep learning generative models, including generative adversarial networks, variational autoencoders, and normalizing flows.Comment: Version accepted to Powertech 2023. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2106.09370, arXiv:2107.0103

DiffECG: A Generalized Probabilistic Diffusion Model for ECG Signals Synthesis

In recent years, deep generative models have gained attention as a promising data augmentation solution for heart disease detection using deep learning approaches applied to ECG signals. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach based on denoising diffusion probabilistic models for ECG synthesis that covers three scenarios: heartbeat generation, partial signal completion, and full heartbeat forecasting. Our approach represents the first generalized conditional approach for ECG synthesis, and our experimental results demonstrate its effectiveness for various ECG-related tasks. Moreover, we show that our approach outperforms other state-of-the-art ECG generative models and can enhance the performance of state-of-the-art classifiers.Comment: under revie

Deep Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting using Augmented Recurrent Input for Dynamic Systems

The demand of probabilistic time series forecasting has been recently raised in various dynamic system scenarios, for example, system identification and prognostic and health management of machines. To this end, we combine the advances in both deep generative models and state space model (SSM) to come up with a novel, data-driven deep probabilistic sequence model. Specially, we follow the popular encoder-decoder generative structure to build the recurrent neural networks (RNN) assisted variational sequence model on an augmented recurrent input space, which could induce rich stochastic sequence dependency. Besides, in order to alleviate the issue of inconsistency between training and predicting as well as improving the mining of dynamic patterns, we (i) propose using a hybrid output as input at next time step, which brings training and predicting into alignment; and (ii) further devise a generalized auto-regressive strategy that encodes all the historical dependencies at current time step. Thereafter, we first investigate the methodological characteristics of the proposed deep probabilistic sequence model on toy cases, and then comprehensively demonstrate the superiority of our model against existing deep probabilistic SSM models through extensive numerical experiments on eight system identification benchmarks from various dynamic systems. Finally, we apply our sequence model to a real-world centrifugal compressor sensor data forecasting problem, and again verify its outstanding performance by quantifying the time series predictive distribution.Comment: 25 pages, 7 figures, 4 tables, preprint under revie