Analysis of WIMAX/BWA Licensing in India: A real option approach

Indian Internet and broadband market has experienced very slow growth and limited penetration till now. The introduction of Broadband Wireless Access (BWA) is expected to aid in increasing the penetration of internet and broadband in India. The report sheds light on the guidelines and procedure used in 4G/BWA spectrum auction and presents comparative analysis of the competing technologies, providing the information about suitability of each technology available. Recently held 4G/ BWA spectrum auction saw enthusiastic participation by the industry and even saw some new entrants in Indian broadband market. Government benefited by Rs, 385bn that it earned as revenue from the auction of the spectrum and projected it as successful auction. However, the question remains if the auctions were efficient and whether they led to creation of value or will it prove to be burden to the telecom operators and will depress their balance sheet for years to come. The report uses both traditional valuation methods such as Discounted Cash Flow as well as Real Option approach to answer such questions. Using DCF analysis, the broadband subscribers have been forecasted to grow from present 13.77mn to 544mn by the end of 2025. The wireless subscribers are forecasted to be 70% of the total broadband subscribers after 5 years of roll out as it will be difficult to replace all wireline subscribers with wireless subscribers in India due to the high cost of wireless broadband and new technology. WiMAX is expected to increase its presence with time and reach 90mn subscribers from meager 0.35mn subscribers by 2025. Using industry wide cost of capital as 12.05%, the Net Present Value has been found Rs 221bn aggregate with an IRR of 17.1%. Using Real option approach, the value of license has been calculated as Rs 437bn which is 13.5% more than the spectrum fees paid by the operators. This mismatch, between the auction value and the correct value that should have been discovered by supply-demand dynamics, can be due to limited participants in BWA spectrum auctions and companies such as TATA and Reliance opting out of the auction process midway as well as uncertainty about acceptance of new technology with Indian subscribers.WiMAX, broadband, 3G spectrum, 4G,broadband wireless access, valuation, licensing, real option

Incentive Design and Market Evolution of Mobile User-Provided Networks

An operator-assisted user-provided network (UPN) has the potential to achieve a low cost ubiquitous Internet connectivity, without significantly increasing the network infrastructure investment. In this paper, we consider such a network where the network operator encourages some of her subscribers to operate as mobile Wi-Fi hotspots (hosts), providing Internet connectivity for other subscribers (clients). We formulate the interaction between the operator and mobile users as a two-stage game. In Stage I, the operator determines the usage-based pricing and quota-based incentive mechanism for the data usage. In Stage II, the mobile users make their decisions about whether to be a host, or a client, or not a subscriber at all. We characterize how the users' membership choices will affect each other's payoffs in Stage II, and how the operator optimizes her decision in Stage I to maximize her profit. Our theoretical and numerical results show that the operator's maximum profit increases with the user density under the proposed hybrid pricing mechanism, and the profit gain can be up to 50\% in a dense network comparing with a pricing-only approach with no incentives.Comment: This manuscript serves as the online technical report of the article published in IEEE Workshop on Smart Data Pricing (SDP), 201

Innovation in the Wireless Ecosystem: A Customer-Centric Framework

The Federal Communications Commission’s Notice of Inquiry in GN 09-157 Fostering Innovation and Investment in the Wireless Communications Market is a significant event at an opportune moment. Wireless communications has already radically changed the way not only Americans but people the world over communicate with each other and access and share information, and there appears no end in sight to this fundamental shift in communication markets. Although the wireless communications phenomenon is global, the US has played and will continue to play a major role in the shaping of this market. At the start of a new US Administration and important changes in the FCC, it is most appropriate that this proceeding be launched.

Valuation of 3G spectrum license in India: A real option approach

India is about to enter a new technological phase as far as mobile technology is concerned. After almost a decade of existence, Third Generation (3G) mobile technology will be rolled out in India. The licenses for the same were auctioned in April – May 2010 and 3G licenses were allocated to the winners in September 2010. Nine private telecom operators entered the bidding for the license and eventually seven won the licenses. The bidding was intense and eventually the aggregate fees of the license as received by the government were almost twice the expected amount. In the backdrop of experience of 3G auction winners in UK and Germany who paid huge sums to acquire the 3G licenses and later lost their market capitalization as the markets perceived that the price paid for the license was more than the actual value of the license, analysts in India were concerned if the operators had paid too much for the licenses. In this report aggregate value of the 3G licenses is calculated using both traditional discounted cash flow approach and real options approach. We find that the rollout of 3G services gives an internal rate of return of 14.2%over the life of the license. If we assume an internal rate of return of 15% for the telecom operators then the aggregate license value comes out to be INR 594 Billion which is 12% lower than what the operators have paid to acquire the license. We also found out that the value of the license as calculated from the real options methodology is INR 798 Billion which is 17.8% higher than the aggregate value paid by the operators. Hence we see that DCF valuation suggests that the licenses were overvalued while Real Options methodology suggests that the licenses were undervalued. The report discusses the reasons for differences between real option valuation and DCF valuation of the license, the possible challenges that the 3Goperators might face in the short to long term and what are the key enablers for the growth of3G services if they want to extract the maximum mileage out of the 3G technology. The report recommends that in future while allocating telecom licenses or licenses in sectors where high and irreversible investment is required and there is a scope for the licensees to invest in phases or in modules, the government should consider real options methodology for setting the price of the license., or the base price of the licenses in case the government decides to follow an auction methodology3G spectrum, mobile technology, valuation, real options, DCF

Business model requirements and challenges in the mobile telecommunication sector

The telecommunications business is undergoing a critical revolution, driven by innovative technologies, globalization, and deregulation. Cellular networks and telecommunications bring radical changes to the way telecom businesses are conducted. Globalization, on the other hand, is tearing down legacy barriers and forcing monopolistic national carriers to compete internationally. Moreover, the noticeable progress of many countries towards deregulation coupled with liberalization is significantly increasing telecom market power and allowing severe competition. The implications of this transition have changed the business rules of the telecom industry. In addition, entrants into the cellular industry have had severe difficulties due to inexistent or weak Business Models (BMs). Designing a BM for a mobile network operator is complex and requires multiple actors to balance different and often conflicting design requirements. Hence, there is a need to enhance operators’ ability in determining what constitutes the most viable business model to meet their strategic objectives within this turbulent environment. In this paper, the authors identify the main mobile BM dimensions along with their interdependencies and further analysis provides mobile network operators with insights to improve their business models in this new ‘boundary-less’ landscape

Efficient Proactive Caching for Supporting Seamless Mobility

We present a distributed proactive caching approach that exploits user mobility information to decide where to proactively cache data to support seamless mobility, while efficiently utilizing cache storage using a congestion pricing scheme. The proposed approach is applicable to the case where objects have different sizes and to a two-level cache hierarchy, for both of which the proactive caching problem is hard. Additionally, our modeling framework considers the case where the delay is independent of the requested data object size and the case where the delay is a function of the object size. Our evaluation results show how various system parameters influence the delay gains of the proposed approach, which achieves robust and good performance relative to an oracle and an optimal scheme for a flat cache structure.Comment: 10 pages, 9 figure

Auction-based Bandwidth Allocation Mechanisms for Wireless Future Internet

An important aspect of the Future Internet is the efficient utilization of (wireless) network resources. In order for the - demanding in terms of QoS - Future Internet services to be provided, the current trend is evolving towards an "integrated" wireless network access model that enables users to enjoy mobility, seamless access and high quality of service in an all-IP network on an "Anytime, Anywhere" basis. The term "integrated" is used to denote that the Future Internet wireless "last mile" is expected to comprise multiple heterogeneous geographically coexisting wireless networks, each having different capacity and coverage radius. The efficient management of the wireless access network resources is crucial due to their scarcity that renders wireless access a potential bottleneck for the provision of high quality services. In this paper we propose an auction mechanism for allocating the bandwidth of such a network so that efficiency is attained, i.e. social welfare is maximized. In particular, we propose an incentive-compatible, efficient auction-based mechanism of low computational complexity. We define a repeated game to address user utilities and incentives issues. Subsequently, we extend this mechanism so that it can also accommodate multicast sessions. We also analyze the computational complexity and message overhead of the proposed mechanism. We then show how user bids can be replaced from weights generated by the network and transform the auction to a cooperative mechanism capable of prioritizing certain classes of services and emulating DiffServ and time-of-day pricing schemes. The theoretical analysis is complemented by simulations that assess the proposed mechanisms properties and performance. We finally provide some concluding remarks and directions for future research

Valuation of spectrum for mobile broadband services: Engineering value versus willingness to pay

Radio spectrum is a vital asset and resource for mobile network operators. With spectrum in the 800 and 900 MHz bands coverage can be provided with fewer base station sites compared to higher frequency bands like 2.1 and 2.6 GHz. With more spectrum, i.e. wider bandwidth, operators can offer higher capacity and data rates. Larger bandwidths means that capacity can be provided with fewer base station sites, i.e. with lower cost. Operators that acquire more spectrum in existing or new bands can re-use existing sites for capacity build out. Engineering value is one way to estimate the marginal value of spectrum. The calculation of engineering value is based on comparison of different network deployment options using different amounts of spectrum. This paper compare estimates of engineering value of spectrum with prices paid at a number of spectrum auctions, with a focus on Sweden. A main finding is that estimated engineering value of spectrum is much higher than prices operators have paid at spectrum auctions during the last couple of years. The analysis also includes a discussion of drivers that determine the willingness to pay for spectrum.Radio spectrum,mobile communications,spectrum valuation,spectrum allocation,mobile broadband,marginal value of spectrum,engineering value

Fourth Generation Wireless Systems: Requirements and Challenges for the Next Frontier

Fourth generation wireless systems (4G) are likely to reach the consumer market in another 4-5 years. 4G comes with the promise of increased bandwidth, higher speeds, greater interoperability across communication protocols, and user friendly, innovative, and secure applications. In this article, I list the requirements of the 4G systems by considering the needs of the users in the future. These requirements can be met if technical and business challenges can be overcome. Technical challenges include mobility management, quality of service, interoperability, high data rate, security, survivability, spectrum, intelligent mobile devices, middleware, and network access. I discuss the most plausible solutions to these technical challenges in this paper. Business-related challenges include billing, payment methods, pricing, size of investments, content provision and mediation, and the trade-off between richness and reach. If these technical and business challenges can be met, then 4G will become the next frontier in data and voice communication infrastructure