House prices and credit constraints: making sense of the U.S. experience

Most U.S. house price models break down in the mid-2000s due to the omission of exogenous changes in mortgage credit supply (associated with the subprime mortgage boom) from house price-to-rent ratio and inverted housing demand models. Previous models lack data on credit constraints facing first-time homebuyers. Incorporating a measure of credit conditions—the cyclically adjusted loan-to-value ratio for first-time buyers—into house price-to-rent ratio models yields stable long-run relationships, more precisely estimated effects, reasonable speeds of adjustment and improved model fits.Housing - Prices ; Subprime mortgage ; Credit ; Rent

Credit conditions and tenure choice: A cross-country examination [on housing market]. ESRI WP582, December 2017

An understanding of the house price to rent ratio and its determinants is important in assessing housing market developments and tenure choice therein. While the ratio is most usually explained by the user cost of capital, the influence of credit conditions on it has been added to econometric assessments in recent years. Using a new cross-country panel, we estimate the impact of variations in credit conditions on the house price to rent ratio between 1994 and 2015 on both a panel and country-by-country basis. This period was one of substantial cross-country house price movements as developments in standard explanatory variables, such as income levels, interest rates and demographics, were accompanied by major changes in credit markets. In line with other recent studies, our results establish the relevance of credit conditions to the house price to rent ratio at both panel and country levels. Moreover, the evidence points to credit conditions dominating the user cost of capital over the sample period, emphasising the need to include credit analysis when evaluating housing market developments

Owner-Occupied Housing as a Hedge Against Rent Risk

Many people assume that the most significant risk in the housing market is that homeowners are exposed to fluctuations in house values. However, homeownership also provides a hedge against fluctuations in future rent payments. This paper finds that, even though house price risk endogenously increases with rent risk, the latter empirically dominates for most households so housing market risk actually increases homeownership rates and house prices. Further, the net effect of rent risk on the demand for homeownership increases with a household's expected length of stay in its home, as the cumulative rent volatility rises and the discounted house price risk falls. Using CPS data, the difference in the probability of homeownership between households with long and short expected lengths of stay is 2.9 to 5.4 percentage points greater in high rent variance places than low rent variance places. The sensitivity to rent risk is greatest for households that devote a larger share of their budgets to housing, and thus face a bigger gamble. Similarly, the elderly who live in high rent variance places are more likely to own their own homes, and their probability of homeownership falls faster with age (as their horizon shortens). This aversion to rent risk might help explain why older households do not consume much of their housing wealth. Finally, we find that house prices capitalize not only expected future rents, but also the associated rent risk premia. At the MSA level, a one standard deviation increase in rent variance increases the house price-to-rent ratio by 2 to 4 percent.

The Rent-Price Ratio for the Aggregate Stock of Owner-Occupied Housing

We construct a time series of the rent-price ratio for the owner- occupied stock of housing, starting in 1960:1, by merging micro data from the last five Decennial Censuses of Housing with price indexes for house prices and rents.House Prices, Housing, Rents, CMHPI, Capitalization Rates

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregressive process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The Öltered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidenced for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets

Optimal monetary policy with durable services: user cost versus purchase price

This paper investigates the inflation rate that should be set as the target for the central bank. To this end, we develop a two-sector economy model in the existence of long-lived durables. In contrast to recent studies that have been conducted on how monetary policy can affect the role of durable goods, which examine only the production sector, we introduce a service market. Accordingly, we can endogenously derive the traditional user cost equation and the price-rent ratio. Our main findings are as follows: First, even in cases where both service and production sectors are equally sticky, the user cost is more important than the purchase price, from the perspective of welfare loss. Second, in contrast to the situation in the economy that includes only nondurables, a temporary shock persistently influences output fluctuations. However, this does not mean that welfare loss increases as the degree of durability increases. Third, welfare is found to be a strictly increasing function of durability.Durables; User cost; Price-rent ratio; Optimal monetary policy

Estimating Estate-Specific Price-to-Rent Ratios in Shanghai and Shenzhen: A Bayesian Approach

The price-to-rent ratio, a common yardstick for the value of housing, is difficult to estimate when rental properties are poor substitutes of owner-occupied homes. In this study, we estimate price-to-rent ratios of residential properties in two major cities in China, where urban high-rises (estates) comprise both rental and owner-occupied units. We conduct Bayesian inference on estate-specific parameters by using information of rental units to elicit priors of the unobserved rents of units sold in the same estate. We find that the price-to-rent ratios tend to be higher for low-end properties. We discuss economic explanations for the phenomenon and the policy implications.

Estimating Estate-Specific Price-to-Rent Ratios in Shanghai and Shenzhen: A Bayesian Approach

The price-to-rent ratio, a common yardstick for the value of housing, is difficult to estimate when rental properties are poor substitutes of owner-occupied homes. In this study we estimate price-to-rent ratios of residential properties in two major cities in China, where urban high-rises (estates) comprise both rental and owner-occupied units. We conduct Bayesian inference on estate-specific parameters, using information of rental units to elicit priors of the unobserved rents of units sold in the same estate. We find that the price-to-rent ratios tend to be higher for low-end properties. We discuss economic explanations for the phenomenon and the policy implications

The Key to Stabilizing House Prices: Bring Them Down

This report states that bringing about the rapid adjustment of house prices to trend levels is the best means of returning stability to the housing market. The paper also calls for the restriction of GSE capital in bubble-inflated markets, with the intent of forcing house prices in these areas to return to trend level. The removal of capital from bubble markets and the consequent infusion of loans into non-bubble markets would stabilize prices in these areas, thus preventing a downward price spiral and overshooting of trend-level prices on the negative side. The report also advocates mortgage appraisal based on a price-to-rent ratio of 15 to 1. As well, the paper suggests giving families facing foreclosure the right to rent their homes both to keep them in their houses and offer banks real incentives to avoid foreclosure

House price developments and fundamentals in the United States

This paper discusses the limitations of the price-income ratio, the price-rent ratio, and of affordability measures as indicators of housing market conditions. For the purpose of assessing whether house prices are misaligned, the most sensible approach is to calculate the user cost of ownership and the implied theoretical ratio of house prices to rents, and compare the latter with the observed ratio. On the basis of this methodology, US house prices appear to have departed from fundamentals since 2004, cumulating an overvaluation of between 25 and 30 per cent by the third quarter of 2006.house prices, affordability, user cost, fundamentals, bubbles