Re-establishing glacier monitoring in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, Central Asia

Glacier mass loss is among the clearest indicators of atmospheric warming. The observation of these changes is one of the major objectives of the international climate monitoring strategy developed by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). Long-term glacier mass balance measurements are furthermore the basis for calibrating and validating models simulating future runoff of glacierised catchments. This is essential for Central Asia, which is one of the driest continental regions of the Northern Hemisphere. In the highly populated regions, water shortage due to decreased glacierisation potentially leads to pronounced political instability, drastic ecological changes and endangered food security. As a consequence of the collapse of the former Soviet Union, however, many valuable glacier monitoring sites in the Tien Shan and Pamir Mountains were abandoned. In recent years, multinational actors have re-established a set of important in situ measuring sites to continue the invaluable long-term data series. This paper introduces the applied monitoring strategy for selected glaciers in the Kyrgyz and Uzbek Tien Shan and Pamir, highlights the existing and the new measurements on these glaciers, and presents an example for how the old and new data can be combined to establish multi-decadal mass balance time series. This is crucial for understanding the impact of climate change on glaciers in this region

Surface-sensible and latent heat fluxes over the Tibetan Plateau from ground measurements, reanalysis, and satellite data

Abstract. Estimations from meteorological stations over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) indicate that since the 1980s the surface-sensible heat flux has been decreasing continuously, and modeling studies suggest that such changes are likely linked to the weakening of the East Asian Monsoon through exciting Rossby wave trains. However, the spatial and temporal variations in the surface-sensible and latent heat fluxes over the entire TP remain unknown. This study aims to characterize the spatial and seasonal variability of the surface-sensible and latent heat fluxes at 0.5° over the TP from 1984 to 2007 by synthesizing multiple data sources including ground measurements, reanalysis products, and remote-sensing products. The root mean square errors (RMSEs) from cross validation are 14.3 Wm−2 and 10.3 Wm−2 for the monthly fused sensible and latent heat fluxes, respectively. The fused sensible and latent heat-flux anomalies are consistent with those estimated from meteorological stations, and the uncertainties of the fused data are also discussed. The associations among the fused sensible and latent heat fluxes and the related surface anomalies such as mean temperature, temperature range, snow cover, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in addition to atmospheric anomalies such as cloud cover and water vapor show seasonal dependence, suggest that the land–biosphere–atmosphere interactions over the TP could display nonuniform feedbacks to the climate changes. It would be interesting to disentangle the drivers and responses of the surface-sensible and latent heat-flux anomalies over the TP in future research from evidences of modeling results. </jats:p

A novel approach to estimate glacier mass balance in the Tien Shan and Pamir based on transient snowline observations

Glaciers are recognised as an excellent proxy for climate change and their centennial massloss has accelerated during the past decades. The Central Asian mountain ranges Tien Shan and Pamir host over 25,000 glaciers that have been observed to respond heterogeneous to climate change. Glacier changes in the region have very important consequences on the water availability for the densely populated lowlands. Despite the significance and severity that climate change exerts on the Central Asian water towers, the glacier response is still poorly understood, hampering sound interpretations and predictions of future threats and opportunities. A significant data gap in the field measurement series from the mid-1990s to around 2010, limits the analysis of long-term trends. Despite the recent efforts to re-established the historical cryospheric monitoring network, continuous long-term glacier mass balance time series remain sparse for Central Asia. Thus, improved temporal and spatial coverage of glacier monitoring is essential. Remote sensing techniques are a powerful tool to study a large number of remotely located and unmeasured glaciers and provide a possibility to partly bridge the aforementioned deficit in data availability. However, the coarse temporal resolution of geodetic mass balance assessments is not suitable to improve the understanding of ongoing processes. This accentuates the indispensable need for improved and extended annual to seasonal observations of mass change of inaccessible and remote glaciers on a cost and labour effective basis as well as for a more elaborated and enhanced, process-orientated methodology. This work provides a combination of detailed in situ measurements and remote sensing based glacier mass change observation from local to regional scale. A multi-level strategy is applied to complement data from long-term glaciological surveys and remote sensing (snowline observations and geodetic mass balance measurements) with numerical modelling to obtain information at high temporal and spatial resolution for individual glaciers. Through modelling constrained with transient snowlines, annual mass balance time series for a large amount of glaciers located in the Tien Shan and Pamir were made available. Such mass balance estimates provide valuable baseline data for climate change assessments, runoff projection, hazard evaluation and enhance process understanding. A better understanding of the regional annual variability of glacier response to climate change in the Pamir and Tien Shan became possible based on the outcome of this thesis. In the presented thesis the results are discussed in detail, the weaknesses and strengths of the developed methodology are unfolded and the relevant perspective and future research outlined.Gletscher sind ausgezeichnete Indikatoren für den Klimawandel. Ihr langjähriger Massen- verlust hat sich in den letzten Jahrzehnten weltweit akzentuiert. Die zentralasiatischen Bergketten Tien Shan und Pamir beherbergen u¨ber 25’000 Gletscher. Studien zeigen, dass diese Gletscher heterogen auf den Klimawandel reagieren. Gletscherver¨anderungen in der Region haben wichtige Auswirkungen auf die Wasserverfügbarkeit für das dicht besiedelte Flachland. Trotz den bedeutenden Konsequenzen welche durch den Klimawandel auf diese regionalen Wasserspeicher ausgeübt wird, ist die Veränderung der Gletscher im Tien Shan und Pamir immer noch relativ unbekannt, was fundierte Interpretationen und Vorhersagen zukünftiger Gefahren und Chancen erschwert. Eine prägnante Datenlücke in den existierenden Messreihen von Mitte der 1990er Jahren bis ca. 2010 schränkt eine detaillierte Analyse langfristiger Entwicklungen weiter ein. Trotz der jüngsten Bemühungen, das historische Kryosphäremessnetz wieder herzustellen, bleiben kontinuierliche Langzeitmessungen für die Gletscher in Zentralasien limitiert. Eine verbesserte zeitliche und räumliche Abdeckung der Gletscherbeobachtungen ist daher unerlässlich. Fernerkundungstechniken sind gängige Methoden, um eine große Anzahl abgelegener und unerforschter Gletscher zu untersuchen. Mit solchen Methoden kann das Defizit an Datenverfügbarkeit der Region teilweise kompensiert werden. Die grobe zeitliche Auflösung der geodätischen Massenbilanzberechnungen und das somit limitierte Prozessverständnis unterstreichen jedoch den unabdingbaren Bedarf nach verbesserten und erweiterten jährlichen bis saisonalen Massenbilanzbeobachtungen. Ab- schätzungen auf ausgedehnter räumlicher Skala, sowie eine stärkere Prozess orientierte Forschung sind nötig. Die vorliegende Arbeit beschreibt eine Kombination aus detaillierten Feldmessungen und Fernerkundungsbeobachtungen der Gletschermassenänderung im Tien Shan und Pamir. Die angewandte Strategie basiert auf mehreren Ebenen aus lokalen bis regionalen Studien. Mit dieser Strategie werden Daten aus langzeit-glaziologischen Feldmessungen und aus der Fernerkundung (Schneelinienbeobachtungen, geodätische Massenbilanzmessungen) mit numerischen Modellierungen komplementieren. Dabei werden Informationen für ausgewählte Gletscher mit hoher zeitlicher und räumlicher Auflösung extrahiert. Durch das Modellieren mit wiederholten Schneelinienbeobachtungen, welche zur Kalibrierung verwendet werden, konnten jährliche Massenbilanzzeitreihen für eine große Anzahl von Gletschern im Studiengebiet berechnet werden. Solche grossräumigen und zeitlich hochaufgelösten Abschätzungen liefern wertvolle Grundlagen für detaillierte Studien über die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels, ermöglichen fundierte Abflussprojektionen und erlauben verbesserte Gefahrenanalysen. Basierend auf den Ergebnissen dieser Arbeit, wird ein besseres Verständnis der regionalen jährlichen Variabilität der Gletscherreaktionen auf den Klimawandel im Pamir und Tien Shan ermöglicht. In der hier vorgelegten Arbeit werden die Resultate im Detail diskutiert, die Schwächen und Stärken der entwickelten Methodik offengelegt und die relevanten Perspektiven abgefasst

Evaluation of climate and hydrological models for impact projections in the Upper Indus basin

Ph. D. ThesisWater resources in the Indus basin are under acute and growing stress. How climate change will affect this situation in the coming decades depends substantially on responses in the datasparse mountains of the upper basin. However, model projections of changes in the cryosphere-dominated hydrology here are highly uncertain. Integral to this uncertainty are challenges in: characterising near-surface climate fields needed for model input; selecting appropriate model structures to balance process fidelity with data availability; and understanding the wide spread in climate model projections used in impact assessments. As such, this thesis aims to identify pathways for refined hydrological projections in the upper Indus basin through in-depth evaluation of climate, cryospheric and hydrological models. Firstly, using the High Asia Refined Analysis (HAR), the study assesses how relatively high resolution regional climate modelling can help describe spatiotemporal variability in nearsurface climate. The HAR exhibits substantial skill in many respects, but particularly in capturing the complex patterns of precipitation in the basin. Some seasonally varying biases in temperature and incoming radiation suggest deficiencies in snow and cloud representations that are likely resolvable. Secondly, the Factorial Snowpack Model (FSM) is driven with the HAR to examine the feasibility and required structure of process-based snowpack modelling. Model correspondence with local observations and remote sensing is good for a subset of FSM configurations using a prognostic albedo parameterisation, as well as a representation of liquid water retention, drainage and melt/refreezing cycles in the snowpack. The multiphysics approach additionally highlights the inputs and processes needing further investigation, which include the atmospheric stability adjustment. Thirdly, using an adapted FSM program and TOPKAPI-ETH, simplified representations of cryospheric processes are compared with more process-based approaches. This helps to identify where systematic differences in hydrological response occur and their connection with spatial and temporal scales. It is found that an enhanced temperature index (ETI) model exhibits behaviour and climate sensitivity more akin to energy balance formulations than a classical temperature index model. However, there may be structural limits to the fidelity of the ETI formulation under cloudy conditions, while further attention is needed on the translation of surface melt to runoff, especially at high elevations. ii The study then moves to examine controls on regional trends and variability simulated by climate models, focusing on temperature in CMIP5 GCMs. While the models partly reproduce key regional atmospheric circulation influences, variation in summer temperature responses depends on differing snow and albedo representations. Ultimately this may offer some potential to constrain temperature projections. Finally, using CMIP5 and HAPPI GCM outputs, the study explores climate and hydrological projections under selected global warming stabilisation scenarios. This shows that shifts in the timing of runoff are discernible even for low warming targets. Overall water availability may depend particularly on natural variability in precipitation, but in dry years the pressures on water resources in the basin could worsen in future. Further efforts to constrain the range of projections using observations and process-based reasoning are required, but effective water resources management in the basin is likely to depend on increasing resilience to a wide range of climatic and hydrological variability

Controls on Spatial and Temporal Variation in Snow Accumulation on Glaciers in the Southern Alps, New Zealand

Mountain glaciers are already responding to climatic warming, and are expected to make a substantial contribution to sea-level rise in the coming decades. The aim of this investigation in the New Zealand Southern Alps was to improve our understanding of snow accumulation variability on mid-latitude maritime glaciers, in order to allow for better estimation of future glacier mass balance. The specific aim was to investigate snow accumulation processes at a range of spatial and temporal scales, focussing on synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation influences, moisture sources for snow accumulation and local-scale dependencies of snow accumulation in relation to topography. A range of methods were utilised including direct measurement, snow and ice core analysis, statistical analysis and modelling. Snow accumulation in the Southern Alps was found to be derived predominantly from the Tasman Sea, and deposited during low pressure troughs and fronts. Although precipitation increased with elevation, wind processes redistributed this mass. On a ~monthly timescale this redistribution caused an unexpected result, namely that wind deflation of snow on Franz Josef Glacier countered the effects of greater accumulation, and total accumulation was similar at both Franz Josef and Tasman Glaciers over this period. These processes make it challenging to simulate snow accumulation patterns by simply extrapolating snowfall over an orographic barrier from lowland climate station data. On an inter-annual basis, temperature, especially during the ablation season, had most influence on net accumulation, and warm summers served to homogenise winter variability. Consequently, atmospheric circulation patterns that affect summer temperature, for example the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) also influence inter-annual variability in net accumulation. Together, these results highlight the dependence of maritime glaciers in the New Zealand Southern Alps on the prevailing westerly circulation. Although some uncertainty surrounds how global warming will affect atmospheric circulation and synoptic weather patterns, the results of this research indicate that New Zealand glaciers can be expected to lose significant mass in the coming decades if the current positive trend in the SAM continues, and if La Niña events (positive ENSO) become more frequent

Remote Sensing of Precipitation: Part II

Precipitation is a well-recognized pillar in the global water and energy balances. The accurate and timely understanding of its characteristics at the global, regional and local scales is indispensable for a clearer insight on the mechanisms underlying the Earth’s atmosphere-ocean complex system. Precipitation is one of the elements that is documented to be greatly affected by climate change. In its various forms, precipitation comprises the primary source of freshwater, which is vital for the sustainability of almost all human activities. Its socio-economic significance is fundamental in managing this natural resource effectively, in applications ranging from irrigation to industrial and household usage. Remote sensing of precipitation is pursued through a broad spectrum of continuously enriched and upgraded instrumentation, embracing sensors which can be ground-based (e.g., weather radars), satellite-borne (e.g., passive or active space-borne sensors), underwater (e.g., hydrophones), aerial, or ship-borne. This volume hosts original research contributions on several aspects of remote sensing of precipitation, including applications which embrace the use of remote sensing in tackling issues such as precipitation estimation, seasonal characteristics of precipitation and frequency analysis, assessment of satellite precipitation products, storm prediction, rain microphysics and microstructure, and the comparison of satellite and numerical weather prediction precipitation products

PICES Press, Vol. 26, No. 1, Winter 2018

PICES science in 2017: A note from the Science Board Chair. 2017 PICES awards. Capacity building: PICES scientists reach out to the next generation of oceanographers in Vladivostok. A MONITOR/TCODE Workshop on “The role of the northern Bering Sea in modulating the Arctic II”. New leadership in PICES. PICES Interns. An unusual gelatinous plankton event in the NE Pacific: The Great Pyrosome Bloom of 2017. Building international partnerships to enhance science-based ecosystem approaches. The Bering Sea: Current status and recent trends. The state of the western North Pacific during the 2017 warm season. Ocean acidification and carbon dioxide uptake in the global ocean. In remembrance of Dr. William T. Peterson. Call for Papers - William Peterson Commemorative Issue. Global Ocean Observing System – Biology and Ecosystems Panel report. OceanObs’19 call for Community White Paper abstracts. Calendar of events

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

This Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report focuses on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events, the impacts of such events, and the strategies to manage the associated risks. The IPCC was jointly established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), in particular to assess in a comprehensive, objective, and transparent manner all the relevant scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information to contribute in understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, the potential impacts, and the adaptation and mitigation options. Beginning in 1990, the IPCC has produced a series of Assessment Reports, Special Reports, Technical Papers, methodologies, and other key documents which have since become the standard references for policymakers and scientists.This Special Report, in particular, contributes to frame the challenge of dealing with extreme weather and climate events as an issue in decisionmaking under uncertainty, analyzing response in the context of risk management. The report consists of nine chapters, covering risk management; observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events; exposure and vulnerability to as well as losses resulting from such events; adaptation options from the local to the international scale; the role of sustainable development in modulating risks; and insights from specific case studies