"A New Approach to Modeling Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises : can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?"

This paper presents a hybrid model for predicting the occurrence of currency crises by using the neuro fuzzy modeling approach. The model integrates the learning ability of neural network with the inference mechanism of fuzzy logic. The empirical results show that the proposed neuro fuzzy model leads to a better prediction of crisis. Significantly, the model can also construct a reliable causal relationship among the variables through the obtained knowledge base. Compared to the traditionally used techniques such as logit, the proposed model can thus lead to a somewhat more prescriptive modeling approach towards finding ways to prevent currency crises.

A New Approach to Modeling Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises : can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?

This paper presents a hybrid model for predicting the occurrence of currency crises by using the neuro fuzzy modeling approach. The model integrates the learning ability of neural network with the inference mechanism of fuzzy logic. The empirical results show that the proposed neuro fuzzy model leads to a better prediction of crisis. Significantly, the model can also construct a reliable causal relationship among the variables through the obtained knowledge base. Compared to the traditionally used techniques such as logit, the proposed model can thus lead to a somewhat more prescriptive modeling approach towards finding ways to prevent currency crises.

Alarm-Based Prescriptive Process Monitoring

Predictive process monitoring is concerned with the analysis of events produced during the execution of a process in order to predict the future state of ongoing cases thereof. Existing techniques in this field are able to predict, at each step of a case, the likelihood that the case will end up in an undesired outcome. These techniques, however, do not take into account what process workers may do with the generated predictions in order to decrease the likelihood of undesired outcomes. This paper proposes a framework for prescriptive process monitoring, which extends predictive process monitoring approaches with the concepts of alarms, interventions, compensations, and mitigation effects. The framework incorporates a parameterized cost model to assess the cost-benefit tradeoffs of applying prescriptive process monitoring in a given setting. The paper also outlines an approach to optimize the generation of alarms given a dataset and a set of cost model parameters. The proposed approach is empirically evaluated using a range of real-life event logs

How do top- and bottom-performing companies differ in using business analytics?

Purpose Business analytics (BA) has attracted growing attention mainly due to the phenomena of big data. While studies suggest that BA positively affects organizational performance, there is a lack of academic research. The purpose of this paper, therefore, is to examine the extent to which top- and bottom-performing companies differ regarding their use and organizational facilitation of BA. Design/methodology/approach Hypotheses are developed drawing on the information processing view and contingency theory, and tested using multivariate analysis of variance to analyze data collected from 117 UK manufacture companies. Findings Top- and bottom-performing companies differ significantly in their use of BA, data-driven environment, and level of fit between BA and data-drain environment. Practical implications Extensive use of BA and data-driven decisions will lead to superior firm performance. Companies wishing to use BA to improve decision making and performance need to develop relevant analytical strategy to guide BA activities and design its structure and business processes to embed BA activities. Originality/value This study provides useful management insights into the effective use of BA for improving organizational performance

The design research pyramid: a three layer framework

To support knowledge-based design development, considerable research has been conducted from various perspectives at different levels. The research on knowledge-based design support systems, generic design artefact and design process modelling, and the inherent quality of design knowledge itself are some examples of these perspectives. The structure underneath the research is not a disparate one but ordered. This paper provides an overview of some ontologies of design knowledge and a layered research framework of knowledge-based engineering design support. Three layers of research are clarified in this pattern: knowledge ontology, design knowledge model, and application. Specifically, the paper highlights ontologies of design knowledge by giving a set of classifications of design knowledge from different points of view. Within the discussion of design knowledge content ontology, two topologies, i.e., teleology and evolutionary, are identified

ESTIMATING THE VALUE OF SEQUENTIAL UPDATING SOLUTIONS FOR INTRAYEAR CROP MANAGEMENT

Results of comparing updating versus nonupdating modeling assumptions call into question the use of models based on nonupdating strategies as valid representations of actual farmer actions. If farmers are sequential updaters, the results indicate that models assuming no updating are inaccurate. The degree of this inaccuracy ranges between 4% and 10% of profits for the study area. Further, the results indicate that updating appears to be important for both descriptive and prescriptive studies of farmer behavior.Crop Production/Industries,