Prediction of the MSCI EURO index based on fuzzy grammar fragments extracted from European central bank statements

We focus on predicting the movement of the MSCI EURO index based on European Central Bank (ECB) statements. For this purpose we learn and extract fuzzy grammars from the text of the ECB statements. Based on a set of selected General Inquirer (GI) categories, the extracted fuzzy grammars are grouped around individual content categories. The frequency at which these fuzzy grammars are encountered in the text constitute input to a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS). The FIS maps these frequencies to the levels of the MSCI EURO index. Ultimately, the goal is to predict whether the MSCI EURO index will exhibit upward or downward movement based on the content of ECB statements, as quantified through the use of fuzzy grammars and GI content categories

Prediction of the MSCI EURO index based on fuzzy grammar fragments extracted from European central bank statements

We focus on predicting the movement of the MSCI EURO index based on European Central Bank (ECB) statements. For this purpose we learn and extract fuzzy grammars from the text of the ECB statements. Based on a set of selected General Inquirer (GI) categories, the extracted fuzzy grammars are grouped around individual content categories. The frequency at which these fuzzy grammars are encountered in the text constitute input to a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS). The FIS maps these frequencies to the levels of the MSCI EURO index. Ultimately, the goal is to predict whether the MSCI EURO index will exhibit upward or downward movement based on the content of ECB statements, as quantified through the use of fuzzy grammars and GI content categories

News Analytics for Financial Decision Support

This PhD thesis contributes to the newly emerged, growing body of scientific work on the use of News Analytics in Finance. Regarded as the next significant development in Automated Trading, News Analytics extends trading algorithms to incorporate information extracted from textual messages, by translating it into actionable, valuable knowledge. The thesis addresses one main theme: the incorporation of news into trading algorithms. This relates to three main tasks: i) the extraction of the information contained in news, ii) the representation of the information contained in news, and iii) the aggregation of this information into actionable knowledge. We validate our approach by designing and implementing three semantic systems: a system for the computational content analysis of European Central Bank statements, a system for incorporating news in stock trading strategies, and a time-aware system for trading based on analyst recommendations. The approach we choose for addressing these tasks is an interdisciplinary one. For the extraction of information from news we rely on approaches borrowed from Computer Science and Linguistics. The representation of the information contained in news is realized by using, and extending, the state-of-the-art in Semantic Web technology. We do this by bringing together insights from Logics, Metaphysics, and Computational Semantics. The aggregation of information is done by using techniques and results from Computational Intelligence and Financ