A Novel Method for Landslide Displacement Prediction by Integrating Advanced Computational Intelligence Algorithms

Landslide displacement prediction is considered as an essential component for developing early warning systems. The modelling of conventional forecast methods requires enormous monitoring data that limit its application. To conduct accurate displacement prediction with limited data, a novel method is proposed and applied by integrating three computational intelligence algorithms namely: the wavelet transform (WT), the artificial bees colony (ABC), and the kernel-based extreme learning machine (KELM). At first, the total displacement was decomposed into several sub-sequences with different frequencies using the WT. Next each sub-sequence was predicted separately by the KELM whose parameters were optimized by the ABC. Finally the predicted total displacement was obtained by adding all the predicted sub-sequences. The Shuping landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China was taken as a case study. The performance of the new method was compared with the WT-ELM, ABC-KELM, ELM, and the support vector machine (SVM) methods. Results show that the prediction accuracy can be improved by decomposing the total displacement into sub-sequences with various frequencies and by predicting them separately. The ABC-KELM algorithm shows the highest prediction capacity followed by the ELM and SVM. Overall, the proposed method achieved excellent performance both in terms of accuracy and stability

Empirical validation of ELM trained neural networks for financial modelling

The purpose of this work is to compare predictive performance of neural networks trained using the relatively novel technique of training single hidden layer feedforward neural networks (SFNN), called Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), with commonly used backpropagation-trained recurrent neural networks (RNN) as applied to the task of financial market prediction. Evaluated on a set of large capitalisation stocks on the Australian market, specifically the components of the ASX20, ELM-trained SFNNs showed superior performance over RNNs for individual stock price prediction. While this conclusion of efficacy holds generally, long short-term memory (LSTM) RNNs were found to outperform for a small subset of stocks. Subsequent analysis identified several areas of performance deviations which we highlight as potentially fruitful areas for further research and performance improvement