8,385 research outputs found
Long-Term Load Forecasting Considering Volatility Using Multiplicative Error Model
Long-term load forecasting plays a vital role for utilities and planners in
terms of grid development and expansion planning. An overestimate of long-term
electricity load will result in substantial wasted investment in the
construction of excess power facilities, while an underestimate of future load
will result in insufficient generation and unmet demand. This paper presents
first-of-its-kind approach to use multiplicative error model (MEM) in
forecasting load for long-term horizon. MEM originates from the structure of
autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model where conditional
variance is dynamically parameterized and it multiplicatively interacts with an
innovation term of time-series. Historical load data, accessed from a U.S.
regional transmission operator, and recession data for years 1993-2016 is used
in this study. The superiority of considering volatility is proven by
out-of-sample forecast results as well as directional accuracy during the great
economic recession of 2008. To incorporate future volatility, backtesting of
MEM model is performed. Two performance indicators used to assess the proposed
model are mean absolute percentage error (for both in-sample model fit and
out-of-sample forecasts) and directional accuracy.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures, 3 table
Development of Neurofuzzy Architectures for Electricity Price Forecasting
In 20th century, many countries have liberalized their electricity market. This power markets liberalization has directed generation companies as well as wholesale buyers to undertake a greater intense risk exposure compared to the old centralized framework. In this framework, electricity price prediction has become crucial for any market player in their decisionâmaking process as well as strategic planning. In this study, a prototype asymmetricâbased neuroâfuzzy network (AGFINN) architecture has been implemented for shortâterm electricity prices forecasting for ISO New England market. AGFINN framework has been designed through two different defuzzification schemes. Fuzzy clustering has been explored as an initial step for defining the fuzzy rules while an asymmetric Gaussian membership function has been utilized in the fuzzification part of the model. Results related to the minimum and maximum electricity prices for ISO New England, emphasize the superiority of the proposed model over wellâestablished learningâbased models
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