Dropout Model Evaluation in MOOCs

The field of learning analytics needs to adopt a more rigorous approach for predictive model evaluation that matches the complex practice of model-building. In this work, we present a procedure to statistically test hypotheses about model performance which goes beyond the state-of-the-practice in the community to analyze both algorithms and feature extraction methods from raw data. We apply this method to a series of algorithms and feature sets derived from a large sample of Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). While a complete comparison of all potential modeling approaches is beyond the scope of this paper, we show that this approach reveals a large gap in dropout prediction performance between forum-, assignment-, and clickstream-based feature extraction methods, where the latter is significantly better than the former two, which are in turn indistinguishable from one another. This work has methodological implications for evaluating predictive or AI-based models of student success, and practical implications for the design and targeting of at-risk student models and interventions

Capturing "attrition intensifying" structural traits from didactic interaction sequences of MOOC learners

This work is an attempt to discover hidden structural configurations in learning activity sequences of students in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). Leveraging combined representations of video clickstream interactions and forum activities, we seek to fundamentally understand traits that are predictive of decreasing engagement over time. Grounded in the interdisciplinary field of network science, we follow a graph based approach to successfully extract indicators of active and passive MOOC participation that reflect persistence and regularity in the overall interaction footprint. Using these rich educational semantics, we focus on the problem of predicting student attrition, one of the major highlights of MOOC literature in the recent years. Our results indicate an improvement over a baseline ngram based approach in capturing "attrition intensifying" features from the learning activities that MOOC learners engage in. Implications for some compelling future research are discussed.Comment: "Shared Task" submission for EMNLP 2014 Workshop on Modeling Large Scale Social Interaction in Massively Open Online Course

Can Feature Predictive Power Generalize? Benchmarking Early Predictors of Student Success across Flipped and Online Courses

Early predictors of student success are becoming a key tool in flipped and online courses to ensure that no student is left behind along course activities. However, with an increased interest in this area, it has become hard to keep track of what the state of the art in early success prediction is. Moreover, prior work on early success prediction based on clickstreams has mostly focused on implementing features and models for a specific online course (e.g., a MOOC). It remains therefore under-explored how different features and models enable early predictions, based on the domain, structure, and educational setting of a given course. In this paper, we report the results of a systematic analysis of early success predictors for both flipped and online courses. In the first part, we focus on a specific flipped course. Specifically, we investigate eight feature sets, presented at top-level educational venues over the last few years, and a novel feature set proposed in this paper and tailored to this setting. We benchmark the performance of these feature sets using a RF classifier, and we provide and discuss an ensemble feature set optimized for the target flipped course. In the second part, we extend our analysis to courses with different educational settings (i.e., MOOCs), domains, and structure. Our results show that (i) the ensemble of optimal features varies depending on the course setting and structure, and (ii) the predictive performance of the optimal e

Predicting Paid Certification in Massive Open Online Courses

Massive open online courses (MOOCs) have been proliferating because of the free or low-cost offering of content for learners, attracting the attention of many stakeholders across the entire educational landscape. Since 2012, coined as “the Year of the MOOCs”, several platforms have gathered millions of learners in just a decade. Nevertheless, the certification rate of both free and paid courses has been low, and only about 4.5–13% and 1–3%, respectively, of the total number of enrolled learners obtain a certificate at the end of their courses. Still, most research concentrates on completion, ignoring the certification problem, and especially its financial aspects. Thus, the research described in the present thesis aimed to investigate paid certification in MOOCs, for the first time, in a comprehensive way, and as early as the first week of the course, by exploring its various levels. First, the latent correlation between learner activities and their paid certification decisions was examined by (1) statistically comparing the activities of non-paying learners with course purchasers and (2) predicting paid certification using different machine learning (ML) techniques. Our temporal (weekly) analysis showed statistical significance at various levels when comparing the activities of non-paying learners with those of the certificate purchasers across the five courses analysed. Furthermore, we used the learner’s activities (number of step accesses, attempts, correct and wrong answers, and time spent on learning steps) to build our paid certification predictor, which achieved promising balanced accuracies (BAs), ranging from 0.77 to 0.95. Having employed simple predictions based on a few clickstream variables, we then analysed more in-depth what other information can be extracted from MOOC interaction (namely discussion forums) for paid certification prediction. However, to better explore the learners’ discussion forums, we built, as an original contribution, MOOCSent, a cross- platform review-based sentiment classifier, using over 1.2 million MOOC sentiment-labelled reviews. MOOCSent addresses various limitations of the current sentiment classifiers including (1) using one single source of data (previous literature on sentiment classification in MOOCs was based on single platforms only, and hence less generalisable, with relatively low number of instances compared to our obtained dataset;) (2) lower model outputs, where most of the current models are based on 2-polar iii iv classifier (positive or negative only); (3) disregarding important sentiment indicators, such as emojis and emoticons, during text embedding; and (4) reporting average performance metrics only, preventing the evaluation of model performance at the level of class (sentiment). Finally, and with the help of MOOCSent, we used the learners’ discussion forums to predict paid certification after annotating learners’ comments and replies with the sentiment using MOOCSent. This multi-input model contains raw data (learner textual inputs), sentiment classification generated by MOOCSent, computed features (number of likes received for each textual input), and several features extracted from the texts (character counts, word counts, and part of speech (POS) tags for each textual instance). This experiment adopted various deep predictive approaches – specifically that allow multi-input architecture - to early (i.e., weekly) investigate if data obtained from MOOC learners’ interaction in discussion forums can predict learners’ purchase decisions (certification). Considering the staggeringly low rate of paid certification in MOOCs, this present thesis contributes to the knowledge and field of MOOC learner analytics with predicting paid certification, for the first time, at such a comprehensive (with data from over 200 thousand learners from 5 different discipline courses), actionable (analysing learners decision from the first week of the course) and longitudinal (with 23 runs from 2013 to 2017) scale. The present thesis contributes with (1) investigating various conventional and deep ML approaches for predicting paid certification in MOOCs using learner clickstreams (Chapter 5) and course discussion forums (Chapter 7), (2) building the largest MOOC sentiment classifier (MOOCSent) based on learners’ reviews of the courses from the leading MOOC platforms, namely Coursera, FutureLearn and Udemy, and handles emojis and emoticons using dedicated lexicons that contain over three thousand corresponding explanatory words/phrases, (3) proposing and developing, for the first time, multi-input model for predicting certification based on the data from discussion forums which synchronously processes the textual (comments and replies) and numerical (number of likes posted and received, sentiments) data from the forums, adapting the suitable classifier for each type of data as explained in detail in Chapter 7

Clickstream-based outcome prediction in short video MOOCs

In this paper, we present a data mining approach for analysing students’ clickstream data logged by an e-learning platform and we propose a machine learning procedure to predict course completion of students. For this, we used data from a short MOOC course which was motivated by the teachers of elementary schools. We show that machine learning approaches can accurately predict the course outcome based on clickstream data and also highlight patterns in data which provide useful insights to MOOC developers