An Empirical Evaluation Of Social Influence Metrics

Predicting when an individual will adopt a new behavior is an important problem in application domains such as marketing and public health. This paper examines the perfor- mance of a wide variety of social network based measurements proposed in the literature - which have not been previously compared directly. We study the probability of an individual becoming influenced based on measurements derived from neigh- borhood (i.e. number of influencers, personal network exposure), structural diversity, locality, temporal measures, cascade mea- sures, and metadata. We also examine the ability to predict influence based on choice of classifier and how the ratio of positive to negative samples in both training and testing affect prediction results - further enabling practical use of these concepts for social influence applications.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figure

DeepInf: Social Influence Prediction with Deep Learning

Social and information networking activities such as on Facebook, Twitter, WeChat, and Weibo have become an indispensable part of our everyday life, where we can easily access friends' behaviors and are in turn influenced by them. Consequently, an effective social influence prediction for each user is critical for a variety of applications such as online recommendation and advertising. Conventional social influence prediction approaches typically design various hand-crafted rules to extract user- and network-specific features. However, their effectiveness heavily relies on the knowledge of domain experts. As a result, it is usually difficult to generalize them into different domains. Inspired by the recent success of deep neural networks in a wide range of computing applications, we design an end-to-end framework, DeepInf, to learn users' latent feature representation for predicting social influence. In general, DeepInf takes a user's local network as the input to a graph neural network for learning her latent social representation. We design strategies to incorporate both network structures and user-specific features into convolutional neural and attention networks. Extensive experiments on Open Academic Graph, Twitter, Weibo, and Digg, representing different types of social and information networks, demonstrate that the proposed end-to-end model, DeepInf, significantly outperforms traditional feature engineering-based approaches, suggesting the effectiveness of representation learning for social applications.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, to appear in KDD 2018 proceeding

Predicting Influencer Virality on Twitter

The ability to successfully predict virality on Twitter holds great potential as a resource for Twitter influencers, enabling the development of more sophisticated strategies for audience engagement, audience monetization, and information sharing. To our knowledge, focusing exclusively on tweets posted by influencers is a novel context for studying Twitter virality. We find, among feature categories traditionally considered in the literature, that combining categories covering a range of information performs better than models only incorporating individual feature categories. Moreover, our general predictive model, encompassing a range of feature categories, achieves a prediction accuracy of 68% for influencer virality. We also investigate the role of influencer audiences in predicting virality, a topic we believe to be understudied in the literature. We suspect that incorporating audience information will allow us to better discriminate between virality classes, thus leading to better predictions. We pursue two different approaches, resulting in 10 different predictive models that leverage influencer audience information in addition to traditional feature categories. Both of our attempts to incorporate audience information plateau at an accuracy of approximately 61%, roughly a 7% decrease in performance compared to our general predictive model. We conclude that we are unable to find experimental evidence to support our claim that incorporating influencer audience information will improve virality predictions. Nonetheless, the performance of our general model holds promise for the deployment of a tool that allows influencers to reap the benefits of virality prediction. As stronger performance from the underlying model would make this tool more useful in practice to influencers, improving the predictive performance of our general model is a cornerstone of future work

Using Linguistic Features to Estimate Suicide Probability of Chinese Microblog Users

If people with high risk of suicide can be identified through social media like microblog, it is possible to implement an active intervention system to save their lives. Based on this motivation, the current study administered the Suicide Probability Scale(SPS) to 1041 weibo users at Sina Weibo, which is a leading microblog service provider in China. Two NLP (Natural Language Processing) methods, the Chinese edition of Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) lexicon and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), are used to extract linguistic features from the Sina Weibo data. We trained predicting models by machine learning algorithm based on these two types of features, to estimate suicide probability based on linguistic features. The experiment results indicate that LDA can find topics that relate to suicide probability, and improve the performance of prediction. Our study adds value in prediction of suicidal probability of social network users with their behaviors

Joint Topic-Semantic-aware Social Recommendation for Online Voting

Online voting is an emerging feature in social networks, in which users can express their attitudes toward various issues and show their unique interest. Online voting imposes new challenges on recommendation, because the propagation of votings heavily depends on the structure of social networks as well as the content of votings. In this paper, we investigate how to utilize these two factors in a comprehensive manner when doing voting recommendation. First, due to the fact that existing text mining methods such as topic model and semantic model cannot well process the content of votings that is typically short and ambiguous, we propose a novel Topic-Enhanced Word Embedding (TEWE) method to learn word and document representation by jointly considering their topics and semantics. Then we propose our Joint Topic-Semantic-aware social Matrix Factorization (JTS-MF) model for voting recommendation. JTS-MF model calculates similarity among users and votings by combining their TEWE representation and structural information of social networks, and preserves this topic-semantic-social similarity during matrix factorization. To evaluate the performance of TEWE representation and JTS-MF model, we conduct extensive experiments on real online voting dataset. The results prove the efficacy of our approach against several state-of-the-art baselines.Comment: The 26th ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management (CIKM 2017