172,215 research outputs found
The Lifecycle and Cascade of WeChat Social Messaging Groups
Social instant messaging services are emerging as a transformative form with
which people connect, communicate with friends in their daily life - they
catalyze the formation of social groups, and they bring people stronger sense
of community and connection. However, research community still knows little
about the formation and evolution of groups in the context of social messaging
- their lifecycles, the change in their underlying structures over time, and
the diffusion processes by which they develop new members. In this paper, we
analyze the daily usage logs from WeChat group messaging platform - the largest
standalone messaging communication service in China - with the goal of
understanding the processes by which social messaging groups come together,
grow new members, and evolve over time. Specifically, we discover a strong
dichotomy among groups in terms of their lifecycle, and develop a separability
model by taking into account a broad range of group-level features, showing
that long-term and short-term groups are inherently distinct. We also found
that the lifecycle of messaging groups is largely dependent on their social
roles and functions in users' daily social experiences and specific purposes.
Given the strong separability between the long-term and short-term groups, we
further address the problem concerning the early prediction of successful
communities. In addition to modeling the growth and evolution from group-level
perspective, we investigate the individual-level attributes of group members
and study the diffusion process by which groups gain new members. By
considering members' historical engagement behavior as well as the local social
network structure that they embedded in, we develop a membership cascade model
and demonstrate the effectiveness by achieving AUC of 95.31% in predicting
inviter, and an AUC of 98.66% in predicting invitee.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, to appear in proceedings of the 25th
International World Wide Web Conference (WWW 2016
Predicting Community Evolution in Social Networks
Nowadays, sustained development of different social media can be observed
worldwide. One of the relevant research domains intensively explored recently
is analysis of social communities existing in social media as well as
prediction of their future evolution taking into account collected historical
evolution chains. These evolution chains proposed in the paper contain group
states in the previous time frames and its historical transitions that were
identified using one out of two methods: Stable Group Changes Identification
(SGCI) and Group Evolution Discovery (GED). Based on the observed evolution
chains of various length, structural network features are extracted, validated
and selected as well as used to learn classification models. The experimental
studies were performed on three real datasets with different profile: DBLP,
Facebook and Polish blogosphere. The process of group prediction was analysed
with respect to different classifiers as well as various descriptive feature
sets extracted from evolution chains of different length. The results revealed
that, in general, the longer evolution chains the better predictive abilities
of the classification models. However, chains of length 3 to 7 enabled the
GED-based method to almost reach its maximum possible prediction quality. For
SGCI, this value was at the level of 3 to 5 last periods.Comment: Entropy 2015, 17, 1-x manuscripts; doi:10.3390/e170x000x 46 page
Analysis of group evolution prediction in complex networks
In the world, in which acceptance and the identification with social
communities are highly desired, the ability to predict evolution of groups over
time appears to be a vital but very complex research problem. Therefore, we
propose a new, adaptable, generic and mutli-stage method for Group Evolution
Prediction (GEP) in complex networks, that facilitates reasoning about the
future states of the recently discovered groups. The precise GEP modularity
enabled us to carry out extensive and versatile empirical studies on many
real-world complex / social networks to analyze the impact of numerous setups
and parameters like time window type and size, group detection method,
evolution chain length, prediction models, etc. Additionally, many new
predictive features reflecting the group state at a given time have been
identified and tested. Some other research problems like enriching learning
evolution chains with external data have been analyzed as well
Are you going to the party: depends, who else is coming? [Learning hidden group dynamics via conditional latent tree models]
Scalable probabilistic modeling and prediction in high dimensional
multivariate time-series is a challenging problem, particularly for systems
with hidden sources of dependence and/or homogeneity. Examples of such problems
include dynamic social networks with co-evolving nodes and edges and dynamic
student learning in online courses. Here, we address these problems through the
discovery of hierarchical latent groups. We introduce a family of Conditional
Latent Tree Models (CLTM), in which tree-structured latent variables
incorporate the unknown groups. The latent tree itself is conditioned on
observed covariates such as seasonality, historical activity, and node
attributes. We propose a statistically efficient framework for learning both
the hierarchical tree structure and the parameters of the CLTM. We demonstrate
competitive performance in multiple real world datasets from different domains.
These include a dataset on students' attempts at answering questions in a
psychology MOOC, Twitter users participating in an emergency management
discussion and interacting with one another, and windsurfers interacting on a
beach in Southern California. In addition, our modeling framework provides
valuable and interpretable information about the hidden group structures and
their effect on the evolution of the time series
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