Trend Mining

In terms of Information Retrieval (IR), a trend is defined as a topic area that is growing in interest and utility over time. An example of a trend would thus be the general topic financial crisis that started to appear on the market in late 2007 and early 2008, or the Arab Spring that started to appear on the news in 2011. Several approaches based on methods from text mining and machine learning can be successfully applied to the problem of mining trends in text collections. Among others, the most popular are probabilistic topic models and diverse clustering methods. The weakness of the existing research in automatic trend detection in texts lies in: 1\. inconsistency in the definition of a trend 2\. lack of a general scientific approach for trend mining 3\. lack of the integration of explicit knowledge and therefore the difficulty in the interpretation of algorithm's results. The scientific contribution of this research is contained in the suggestion to deal with the trend detection from the perspective of trend mining that is being defined here. As a solution for the problem of difficulty in the interpretation of the results from the common trend detection techniques, this research proposes the trend template that is a knowledge-based trend mining approach. Based on this trend template, two directions of implementation are introduced: trend ontology and trend-indication (the trend weighting method). The trend ontology works as an a-priori model and enables the discovery of a trend structure in the web documents corpus. Tests with this method on a test corpus show that mining trends with an a-priori model while integrating explicit knowledge leads to a better quality of results considering their interpretability. The trend-indication approach is based on time-incorporating weighting methods for selection of trend features from web documents. It enables the reduction of features that are considered in the process of trend mining, and therefore reduces the data so that only time-relevant information is considered for further analysis. This method's results on our web document corpus show that time-based weighting functions alone can help in discovering trend-relevant features. Both the trend ontology and the trend-indication approaches are implemented in the tremit tool (TREnd MIning Tool), a test tool developed for this thesis, and are tested on a test corpus. The test corpus consists of 35,635 business news and 4,696 DAX (Deutscher Aktienindex - German stock market) reports from German web sites in a late 2007 and early 2008. The results are compared with the standard method results of a LDA-based topic model and the k-means clustering algorithm on the same test corpus. Discussion of the results is contained in the experimental part of the thesis.Ein Trend im Kontext des Information Retrievals (IR) ist ein Themengebiet, das über einen Zeitraum an Nutzwert und Interesse gewinnt, wie z. B. das allgemeine Thema Finanzkrise im Zeitraum 2008-2012 oder Arabischer Frühling im Zeitraum 2010-2011. Es gibt Verfahren, verankert in Bereichen des Data Minings, Text Minings und des Maschinellen Lernens, die zur Lösung des Problems der Trenderkennung in Texten herangezogen werden. Zu den oft verwendeten gehören die probabilistischen Topic Models sowie verschiedene Clusteringverfahren. Die Schwachstellen der existierenden Forschung über automatische Trenderkennung in Texten liegen in: 1\. inkonsistenten Definitionen des Trends 2\. fehlendem wissenschaftlichen Ansatz des Trend Mining 3\. fehlendem Bezug zum expliziten Wissen und damit schlechter Interpretierbarkeit der Ergebnisse Der wissenschaftliche Beitrag dieser Arbeit besteht in dem Vorschlag, die Forschung zur automatischen Trenderkennung aus der Sicht des Trend Mining zu betrachten, dessen Definition in dieser Arbeit vorgeschlagen wird. Als Lösung für das Problem der schlechten Interpretierbarkeit der Ergebnisse von gängigen Trenderkennungsalgorithmen wird trend template vorgeschlagen, das ein wissensbasierter Ansatz für trend mining ist. Ausgehend von diesem trend template werden zwei Implementierungsrichtungen gezeigt: die Trendontologie und das Trend- Indication-Verfahren. Die Trendontologie funktioniert nach dem Prinzip eines A -priori-Modells und ermöglicht die Entdeckung einer Trendstruktur in dem Webdokumentenkorpus. Tests mit diesem Verfahren auf dem Testkorpus zeigen, dass Trenderkennung mit einem A-priori-Modell unter Einbezug von explizitem Wissen, zu qualitativ besseren Ergebnissen, vor allem in Hinsicht auf die Interpretierbarkeit, führt. Das Trend-Indication-Verfahren baut auf den zeitbasierten Gewichtungsfunktionen auf und konzentriert sich auf die Selektion der Trend Features aus den Webdokumenten. Mithilfe dieses Verfahrens wird die Dimension der zu untersuchenden Daten im Hinblick auf die Trenderkennung sinnvoll reduziert und somit nur die zeitrelevante Information aus den Texten für weitere Analysen bereitgestellt. Die Tests mit diesem Verfahren zeigen, dass zeitrelevante Trendbegriffe alleine durch geeignete Gewichtungsfunktionen gut aufgedeckt werden. Beide Methoden werden in dem tremit (TREnd MIning Tool), das für diese Arbeit entwickelte Testtool, implementiert und auf dem Testkorpus getestet. Der Testkorpus besteht aus 35.635 Wirtschaftsnachrichten und 4.696 DAX-Berichten des deutschsprachigen Webs aus dem Zeitraum September 2007 bis April 2008. Die Ergebnisse werden mit den Ergebnissen der gängigen Verfahren - LDA-basiertem Topic Model und k-means Clustering - auf dem gleichen gleichen Korpus verglichen und im Experimentierteil der Arbeit diskutiert und evaluiert

Complexity in Economic and Social Systems

There is no term that better describes the essential features of human society than complexity. On various levels, from the decision-making processes of individuals, through to the interactions between individuals leading to the spontaneous formation of groups and social hierarchies, up to the collective, herding processes that reshape whole societies, all these features share the property of irreducibility, i.e., they require a holistic, multi-level approach formed by researchers from different disciplines. This Special Issue aims to collect research studies that, by exploiting the latest advances in physics, economics, complex networks, and data science, make a step towards understanding these economic and social systems. The majority of submissions are devoted to financial market analysis and modeling, including the stock and cryptocurrency markets in the COVID-19 pandemic, systemic risk quantification and control, wealth condensation, the innovation-related performance of companies, and more. Looking more at societies, there are papers that deal with regional development, land speculation, and the-fake news-fighting strategies, the issues which are of central interest in contemporary society. On top of this, one of the contributions proposes a new, improved complexity measure

Pandemics and United States Pharmaceutical Stocks’ Rates of Return

Understanding the stock market in the 21st century is very important to investors as well as company executives. All publicly traded companies get most of their financing by issuing stock on the various stock markets of the world. These stocks are then brought and sold to investors. The research in this dissertation used the event study methodology to evaluate the United States stock market rate of return for pharmaceutical stocks impacted by pandemics in 2009 and 2020. Using the stocks\u27 historical data before and after the announcement of a pandemic by the World Health Organization, this event study will see if the pandemic affects the stocks\u27 rate of return

Sense-making and storytelling in financial markets: the case of the Istanbul stock exchange

In this thesis, I investigate sense-making processes in financial markets. My focus is on the role of narratives in these routine activities in digital market places or what Cetina and Preda (2007) describe as scopic market systems. I conceptualize narratives told by market professionals in these systems as another form of market device (Callon et al., 2007) which combines different modes of knowing and explanation to cope with flows of data/information and funds, and works to generate value from assets exposed to markets. From a sociological perspective, I argue that the substitution of social network-based information search and face-to-face exchange relationships in financial markets with flow-based and anonymised representations and exchange relationships do not undermine the importance of social networks in shaping sense-making and decision-making in financial markets. However to argue so, I broaden the concept of social network with the help of Bourdieu’s (1997) notion of economic, social and cultural capital. I introduce the notions of field and meta-field of power, habitus, and position-taking by Bourdieu (1997, and Wacquant 1992) to my conceptual discussion of financial markets. In light of this, I describe financial markets as hierarchical and competitive structures inhabited by different groups of investors and intermediaries and shaped by competition and conflict among these groups. I argue that these groups’ position in the field is conditioned by their economic, social, and cultural capital which are generated and sustained within and outwith the field. Consequently, I suggest that these groups’ sense-making and investment activities and their use of market devices including storytelling acts should exhibit distinctive modes in accordance with the specific positions they have voluntarily or involuntarily taken in the field. To substantiate these claims with narrative evidence, I present the case of the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) in Turkey. Opened in 1985, the ISE provides an instrumental case to study the role of sense-making narratives as another form of market device in scopic market systems with a Bourdieusian sociological framework. As gathered from publicly available information and early pilot fieldwork in the ISE headquarters, the ISE as a field has been occupied by three dominant investor types since 1991. These are domestic retail (DRIs), domestic institutional (DIIs), and foreign institutional investors (FIIs). These three groups have a dominant weight in either trading volume or share ownership in the ISE. Drawing on my (participatory) observations between 2008 and 2009 in an asset management company and four brokerage houses which served DRIs and/or DIIs and FIIs, I present evidence on how distinct combinations of economic, social and cultural capitals among these dominant investor-intermediary groups shape their sense-making activities and consequent sense-making stories in the ISE

New trends in the economic systems management in the context of modern global challenges (Vol. 2)

Modern global economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and various changes in the structure of the world market of goods and services require the developing of new models of economic systems management based on appropriate strategic management methodology, implementation innovation, use of prospects for various risks caused by the pandemic, implementation mechanisms for ensuring the security of economic systems. Ensuring effective management of economic systems in the current global challenges is impossible without the introduction of a new concept of functioning and sustainable development of economic entities. To ensure effective management of economic systems in the context of modern global challenges it is necessary to determine the state of the economic process of entities and explore the impact of risks on current activities, justify and developing a system to overcome negative effects on economic activity and obtain a positive economic result. The effectiveness of developed conceptual provisions to ensure effective management of economic systems is determined by the ability of the management system to withstand the destructive effects of the external environment and due to the strengths to direct the resources of economic entities to maintain the economic process, able ensure to save resources and cover current costs economic entities, etc

Financial Markets

ISBN 978-9941-0-5221-7 (Georgia), ISBN 978-83-61429-15-9 (Poland)Ми вважаємо за доцільне в цілому уявити необхідність і можливість існування фінансових ринків, а також їх класифікацію в роботі; а також сучасні тенденції розвитку фінансових ринків, вплив світової фінансової кризи на фінансові ринки; фінансові інститути та їх види та функції; в окремому розділі ми представляємо початкові і похідні фінансові інструменти. Ми приділяємо особливу увагу питанням дослідження сутності, функцій і структур інвестиційного ринку, як складової фінансового ринку, а також основних фінансових інструментів інвестиційного ринку. Перенесення основною складовою інвестиційного ринку в широкі спектри дискусій про інвестиційному ринку, тобто ринку цінних паперів в фінансових інструментах, послідовно представлений в роботі. Ми представляємо теоретичні та практичні аспекти ринку цінних паперів, і в цілому, питання оцінки і управління фінансовими інвестиціями; На перший план висуваються питання фундаментального, технічного та графічного аналізу ринку, а також основні положення технічного аналізу, прийняті на практиці на світовому ринку безпеки. «Фінансові ринки» є продовженням циклу робіт «Інвестиційна діяльність» і призначена для бакалаврів, кандидатів в магістри і доктори, викладачів вузів, вчених і дослідників. Це буде цікаво широкому колу читачів, які цікавляться вищевказаними питаннями.Мы посчитали целесообразным в целом представить необходимость и возможности существования финансовых рынков, а также их классификацию в работе; а также современные тенденции развития финансовых рынков, влияние мирового финансового кризиса на финансовые рынки; финансовые институты и их виды и функции; в отдельной главе мы представляем начальные и производные финансовые инструменты. Мы уделяем особое внимание вопросам исследования сущности, функций и структур инвестиционного рынка, как составляющей финансового рынка, а также основных финансовых инструментов инвестиционного рынка. Перенос основной составляющей инвестиционного рынка в широкие спектры дискуссий об инвестиционном рынке, то есть рынка ценных бумаг в финансовых инструментах, последовательно представлен в работе. Мы представляем теоретические и практические аспекты рынка ценных бумаг, и в целом, вопросы оценки и управления финансовыми инвестициями; На первый план выдвигаются вопросы фундаментального, технического и графического анализа рынка, а также основные положения технического анализа, принятые на практике на мировом рынке безопасности. «Финансовые рынки» является продолжением цикла работ «Инвестиционная деятельность» и предназначена для бакалавров, кандидатов в магистры и доктора, преподавателей вузов, ученых и исследователей. Это будет интересно широкому кругу читателей, интересующихся вышеуказанными вопросами.We considered it purposeful to represent generally necessity and opportunities of existence of financial markets, alongside with their classification in the work; as well as modern trends of financial markets development, influence of global financial crisis upon financial markets; financial institutions and their kinds and functions; in the separate chapter, we represent initial and derivative financial instruments. We pay special attention to the issues of research of the essence, functions and structures of the investment market, as the component of financial market, as well as principal financial instruments of the investment market. Transfer of the principal component of the investment market to the wide spectra discussions about investment market, i.e. security market in the financial instruments is provided in sequence in the work. We represent theoretical and practical aspects of security market, and generally, the issues of assessment and management of financial investments; discussion issues of fundamental, technical and graphical analysis of the market is put in the foreground, as well as basic provisions of technical analysis adopted in practice at the global security market. “Financial Markets” is following work of the cycle of works “Investment Activities” and it is intended for the bachelors, candidates for a master’s and doctor’s degrees, high school teachers, scientists and researchers. It will be interesting for the wide circle of readers interested in the above issues

Експериментальна економіка та машинне навчання для прогнозування динаміки емерджентної економіки: матеріали вибраних робіт 8-ї Міжнародної конференції з моніторингу, моделювання та управління емерджентною економікою (M3E2 2019)

This volume represents the proceedings of the selected papers of the 8th International Conference on Monitoring, Modeling & Management of Emergent Economy (M3E2 2019), held in Odessa, Ukraine, on May 22-24, 2019. It comprises 38 papers dedicated to the experimental economics and machine learning that were carefully peer-reviewed and selected from 71 submissions.Цей том представляє вибрані матеріали 8-ої Міжнародної конференції "Моніторинг, моделювання та менеджмент емерджентної економіки" (M3E2 2019), що відбулася в Одесі, Україна, 22-24 травня 2019 року. Він містить 38 робіт, присвячених експериментальній економіці та машинному навчанню, які були ретельно прорецензовані та відібрані з 71 подання

Foreword: Abolition Constitutionalism

In this Foreword, I make the case for an abolition constitutionalism that attends to the theorizing of prison abolitionists. In Part I, I provide a summary of prison abolition theory and highlight its foundational tenets that engage with the institution of slavery and its eradication. I discuss how abolition theorists view the current prison industrial complex as originating in, though distinct from, racialized chattel slavery and the racial capitalist regime that relied on and sustained it, and their movement as completing the “unfinished liberation” sought by slavery abolitionists in the past. Part II considers whether the U.S. Constitution is an abolitionist document. I interrogate the historic abolition constitutionalism by examining antebellum abolitionists’ readings of the Constitution and their partial incorporation into the Reconstruction Amendments, as well as the Supreme Court’s jurisprudence obstructing the Amendments’ transformative potential. I pay close attention to the Supreme Court’s most recent decision interpreting the relationship between the Fourteenth Amendment and carceral punishment — Flowers v. Mississippi— to analyze the Justices’ rejection of an abolitionist approach in their ruling. Finally, Part III links Parts I and II by exploring the relationship between prison abolition and the U.S. Constitution. I argue that, despite the ascendance of proslavery and anti-abolition constitutionalism, we should consider the abolitionist history of the Reconstruction Amendments as a usable past to help move toward a radical future. I hope to show that the prison abolition movement can reinvigorate abolition constitutionalism. In turn, today’s activists can deploy the Reconstruction Amendments instrumentally to further their aims and, in the process, construct a new abolition constitutionalism on the path to building a society without prisons

Three Risky Decades: A Time for Econophysics?

Our Special Issue we publish at a turning point, which we have not dealt with since World War II. The interconnected long-term global shocks such as the coronavirus pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and catastrophic climate change have imposed significant humanitary, socio-economic, political, and environmental restrictions on the globalization process and all aspects of economic and social life including the existence of individual people. The planet is trapped—the current situation seems to be the prelude to an apocalypse whose long-term effects we will have for decades. Therefore, it urgently requires a concept of the planet's survival to be built—only on this basis can the conditions for its development be created. The Special Issue gives evidence of the state of econophysics before the current situation. Therefore, it can provide excellent econophysics or an inter-and cross-disciplinary starting point of a rational approach to a new era