Online Model Evaluation in a Large-Scale Computational Advertising Platform

Online media provides opportunities for marketers through which they can deliver effective brand messages to a wide range of audiences. Advertising technology platforms enable advertisers to reach their target audience by delivering ad impressions to online users in real time. In order to identify the best marketing message for a user and to purchase impressions at the right price, we rely heavily on bid prediction and optimization models. Even though the bid prediction models are well studied in the literature, the equally important subject of model evaluation is usually overlooked. Effective and reliable evaluation of an online bidding model is crucial for making faster model improvements as well as for utilizing the marketing budgets more efficiently. In this paper, we present an experimentation framework for bid prediction models where our focus is on the practical aspects of model evaluation. Specifically, we outline the unique challenges we encounter in our platform due to a variety of factors such as heterogeneous goal definitions, varying budget requirements across different campaigns, high seasonality and the auction-based environment for inventory purchasing. Then, we introduce return on investment (ROI) as a unified model performance (i.e., success) metric and explain its merits over more traditional metrics such as click-through rate (CTR) or conversion rate (CVR). Most importantly, we discuss commonly used evaluation and metric summarization approaches in detail and propose a more accurate method for online evaluation of new experimental models against the baseline. Our meta-analysis-based approach addresses various shortcomings of other methods and yields statistically robust conclusions that allow us to conclude experiments more quickly in a reliable manner. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our evaluation strategy on real campaign data through some experiments.Comment: Accepted to ICDM201

Statistical Challenges in Online Controlled Experiments: A Review of A/B Testing Methodology

The rise of internet-based services and products in the late 1990's brought about an unprecedented opportunity for online businesses to engage in large scale data-driven decision making. Over the past two decades, organizations such as Airbnb, Alibaba, Amazon, Baidu, Booking, Alphabet's Google, LinkedIn, Lyft, Meta's Facebook, Microsoft, Netflix, Twitter, Uber, and Yandex have invested tremendous resources in online controlled experiments (OCEs) to assess the impact of innovation on their customers and businesses. Running OCEs at scale has presented a host of challenges requiring solutions from many domains. In this paper we review challenges that require new statistical methodologies to address them. In particular, we discuss the practice and culture of online experimentation, as well as its statistics literature, placing the current methodologies within their relevant statistical lineages and providing illustrative examples of OCE applications. Our goal is to raise academic statisticians' awareness of these new research opportunities to increase collaboration between academia and the online industry

The Use of Clustering Methods in Memory-Based Collaborative Filtering for Ranking-Based Recommendation Systems

This research explores the application of clustering techniques and frequency normalization in collaborative filtering to enhance the performance of ranking-based recommendation systems. Collaborative filtering is a popular approach in recommendation systems that relies on user-item interaction data. In ranking-based recommendation systems, the goal is to provide users with a personalized list of items, sorted by their predicted relevance. In this study, we propose a novel approach that combines clustering and frequency normalization techniques. Clustering, in the context of data analysis, is a technique used to organize and group together users or items that share similar characteristics or features. This method proves beneficial in enhancing recommendation accuracy by uncovering hidden patterns within the data. Additionally, frequency normalization is utilized to mitigate potential biases in user-item interaction data, ensuring fair and unbiased recommendations. The research methodology involves data preprocessing, clustering algorithm selection, frequency normalization techniques, and evaluation metrics. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms traditional collaborative filtering approaches in terms of ranking accuracy and recommendation quality. This approach has the potential to enhance recommendation systems across various domains, including e-commerce, content recommendation, and personalized advertising

Engineering for a science-centric experimentation platform

Netflix is an internet entertainment service that routinely employs experimentation to guide strategy around product innovations. As Netflix grew, it had the opportunity to explore increasingly specialized improvements to its service, which generated demand for deeper analyses supported by richer metrics and powered by more diverse statistical methodologies. To facilitate this, and more fully harness the skill sets of both engineering and data science, Netflix engineers created a science-centric experimentation platform that leverages the expertise of scientists from a wide range of backgrounds working on data science tasks by allowing them to make direct code contributions in the languages used by them (Python and R). Moreover, the same code that runs in production is able to be run locally, making it straightforward to explore and graduate both metrics and causal inference methodologies directly into production services. In this paper, we provide two main contributions. Firstly, we report on the architecture of this platform, with a special emphasis on its novel aspects: how it supports science-centric end-to-end workflows without compromising engineering requirements. Secondly, we describe its approach to causal inference, which leverages the potential outcomes conceptual framework to provide a unified abstarction layer for arbitrary statistical models and methodologies