Optimal predictive model selection

Often the goal of model selection is to choose a model for future prediction, and it is natural to measure the accuracy of a future prediction by squared error loss. Under the Bayesian approach, it is commonly perceived that the optimal predictive model is the model with highest posterior probability, but this is not necessarily the case. In this paper we show that, for selection among normal linear models, the optimal predictive model is often the median probability model, which is defined as the model consisting of those variables which have overall posterior probability greater than or equal to 1/2 of being in a model. The median probability model often differs from the highest probability model

Optimal Feedback Communication via Posterior Matching

In this paper we introduce a fundamental principle for optimal communication over general memoryless channels in the presence of noiseless feedback, termed posterior matching. Using this principle, we devise a (simple, sequential) generic feedback transmission scheme suitable for a large class of memoryless channels and input distributions, achieving any rate below the corresponding mutual information. This provides a unified framework for optimal feedback communication in which the Horstein scheme (BSC) and the Schalkwijk-Kailath scheme (AWGN channel) are special cases. Thus, as a corollary, we prove that the Horstein scheme indeed attains the BSC capacity, settling a longstanding conjecture. We further provide closed form expressions for the error probability of the scheme over a range of rates, and derive the achievable rates in a mismatch setting where the scheme is designed according to the wrong channel model. Several illustrative examples of the posterior matching scheme for specific channels are given, and the corresponding error probability expressions are evaluated. The proof techniques employed utilize novel relations between information rates and contraction properties of iterated function systems.Comment: IEEE Transactions on Information Theor

Optimal Calibration of PET Crystal Position Maps Using Gaussian Mixture Models

A method is developed for estimating optimal PET gamma-ray detector crystal position maps, for arbitrary crystal configurations, based on a binomial distribution model for scintillation photon arrival. The approach is based on maximum likelihood estimation of Gaussian mixture model parameters using crystal position histogram data, with determination of the position map taken from the posterior probability boundaries between mixtures. This leads to minimum probability of error crystal identification under the assumed model