Intrinsically dynamic population models

Intrinsically dynamic models (IDMs) depict populations whose cumulative growth rate over a number of intervals equals the product of the long term growth rates (that is the dominant roots or dominant eigenvalues) associated with each of those intervals. Here the focus is on the birth trajectory produced by a sequence of population projection (Leslie) matrices. The elements of a Leslie matrix are represented as straightforward functions of the roots of the matrix, and new relationships are presented linking the roots of a matrix to its Net Reproduction Rate and stable mean age of childbearing. Incorporating mortality changes in the rates of reproduction yields an IDM when the subordinate roots are held constant over time. In IDMs, the birth trajectory generated by any specified sequence of Leslie matrices can be found analytically. In the Leslie model with 15 year age groups, the constant subordinate root assumption leads to reasonable changes in the age pattern of fertility, and equations (27) and (30) provide the population size and structure that result from changing levels of net reproduction. IDMs generalize the fixed rate stable population model. They can characterize any observed population, and can provide new insights into dynamic demographic behavior, including the momentum associated with gradual or irregular paths to zero growth.dynamic models, dynamic population models, eigenvalues, Leslie matrices, population momentum

Hybrid Behaviour of Markov Population Models

We investigate the behaviour of population models written in Stochastic Concurrent Constraint Programming (sCCP), a stochastic extension of Concurrent Constraint Programming. In particular, we focus on models from which we can define a semantics of sCCP both in terms of Continuous Time Markov Chains (CTMC) and in terms of Stochastic Hybrid Systems, in which some populations are approximated continuously, while others are kept discrete. We will prove the correctness of the hybrid semantics from the point of view of the limiting behaviour of a sequence of models for increasing population size. More specifically, we prove that, under suitable regularity conditions, the sequence of CTMC constructed from sCCP programs for increasing population size converges to the hybrid system constructed by means of the hybrid semantics. We investigate in particular what happens for sCCP models in which some transitions are guarded by boolean predicates or in the presence of instantaneous transitions

Two population models with constrained migrations

We study two models of population with migration. We assume that we are given infinitely many islands with the same number r of resources, each individual consuming one unit of resources. On an island lives an individual whose genealogy is given by a critical Galton-Watson tree. If all the resources are consumed, any newborn child has to migrate to find new resources. In this sense, the migrations are constrained, not random. We will consider first a model where resources do not regrow, so the r first born individuals remain on their home island, whereas their children migrate. In the second model, we assume that resources regrow, so only r people can live on an island at the same time, the supernumerary ones being forced to migrate. In both cases, we are interested in how the population spreads on the islands, when the number of initial individuals and available resources tend to infinity. This mainly relies on computing asymptotics for critical random walks and functionals of the Brownian motion.Comment: 38 pages, 12 figure

Simple stellar population models including blue stragglers

Observations show that nearly all star clusters and stellar populations contain blue straggler stars (BSs). BSs in a cluster can significantly enhance the integrated spectrum of the host population, preferentially at short wavelengths, and render it much bluer in photometric colours. Current theoretical simple stellar population (SSP) models constructed within the traditional framework of single and binary stellar evolution cannot fully account for the impact of these objects on the integrated spectral properties of stellar populations. Using conventional SSP models without taking into account BS contributions may significantly underestimate a cluster's age and/or metallicity, simply because one has to balance the observed bluer colours (or a bluer spectrum) with a younger age and/or a lower metallicity. Therefore, inclusion of BS contributions in SSP models is an important and necessary improvement for population synthesis and its applications. Here, we present a new set of SSP models, which include BS contributions based on our analysis of individual star clusters. The models cover the wavelength range from 91~{\AA} to 160~$\mu$m, ages from 0.1 to 20 Gyr and metallicities $Z=0.0004, 0.004, 0.008, 0.02$ (solar) and 0.05. We use the observed integrated spectra of several Magellanic Cloud star clusters to cross-check and validate our models. The results show that the age predictions from our models are closer to those from isochrone fitting in the clusters' colour-magnitude diagrams compared to age predictions based on standard SSP models.Comment: 16 pages, 15 figures, 4 tables, accepted for publication in MNRA

Bounding the Equilibrium Distribution of Markov Population Models

Arguing about the equilibrium distribution of continuous-time Markov chains can be vital for showing properties about the underlying systems. For example in biological systems, bistability of a chemical reaction network can hint at its function as a biological switch. Unfortunately, the state space of these systems is infinite in most cases, preventing the use of traditional steady state solution techniques. In this paper we develop a new approach to tackle this problem by first retrieving geometric bounds enclosing a major part of the steady state probability mass, followed by a more detailed analysis revealing state-wise bounds.Comment: 4 page

Coalescent results for diploid exchangeable population models

We consider diploid bi-parental analogues of Cannings models: in a population of fixed size $N$ the next generation is composed of $V_{i,j}$ offspring from parents $i$ and $j$, where $V=(V_{i,j})_{1\le i\neq j \le N}$ is a (jointly) exchangeable (symmetric) array. Every individual carries two chromosome copies, each of which is inherited from one of its parents. We obtain general conditions, formulated in terms of the vector of the total number of offspring to each individual, for the convergence of the properly scaled ancestral process for an $n$-sample of genes towards a ($\Xi$-)coalescent. This complements M\"ohle and Sagitov's (2001) result for the haploid case and sharpens the profile of M\"ohle and Sagitov's (2003) study of the diploid case, which focused on fixed couples, where each row of $V$ has at most one non-zero entry. We apply the convergence result to several examples, in particular to two diploid variations of Schweinsberg's (2003) model, leading to Beta-coalescents with two-fold and with four-fold mergers, respectively.Comment: 41 pages, 1 figur

Fluctuations and correlations in population models with age structure

We study the population profile in a simple discrete time model of population dynamics. Our model, which is closely related to certain ``bit-string'' models of evolution, incorporates competition for resources via a population dependent death probability, as well as a variable reproduction probability for each individual as a function of age. We first solve for the steady-state of the model in mean field theory, before developing analytic techniques to compute Gaussian fluctuation corrections around the mean field fixed point. Our computations are found to be in good agreement with Monte-Carlo simulations. Finally we discuss how similar methods may be applied to fluctuations in continuous time population models.Comment: 4 page