World population projections, 2020

The world's population, today numbering some 5.5 billion people, may approach 12 billion by the end of the next century. By the year 2020, 26 years from today, it will most likely have increased by about 2.5 billion to a total of 8 billion people, an increase of nearly 100 million a year. Over 93 percent of this growth will take place in the developing countries. Nygaard contends that two regions in particular merit attention. South Asia and Africa, where large percentages of the poor live today and where future food production is of concern, face substantial increases in their populations. India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh plus the continent of Africa will add another 1.5 billion people to the population roles.Population forecasting. ,Population Statistics. ,Population growth. ,Africa Economic conditions. ,Asia Economic conditions. ,Bangladesh. ,Pakistan. ,India. ,

U.S. Population Projections: 2005-2050

Projects population growth, new immigrants and their descendants as a percentage of that growth, and changes in the population's ethnic/racial composition. Analyzes the "dependency ratio" of children and elderly to working-age Americans

A stochastic sub-national population projection methodology with an application to the Waikato region of New Zealand

In this paper we use a stochastic population projection methodology at the sub-national level as an alternative to the conventional deterministic cohort-component method. We briefly evaluate the accuracy of previous deterministic projections and find that there is a tendency for these to be conservative: under-projecting fast growing populations and over-projecting slow growing ones. We generate probabilistic population projections for five demographically distinct administrative areas within the Waikato region of New Zealand, namely Hamilton City, Franklin District, Thames-Coromandel District, Otorohanga District and South Waikato District. Although spatial interaction between the areas is not taken into account in the current version of the methodology, a consistent set of cross-regional assumptions is used. The results are compared to official sub-national deterministic projections. The accuracy of sub-national population projections is in New Zealand strongly affected by the instability of migration as a component of population change. Unlike the standard cohort-component methodology, in which net migration levels are projected, the key parameters of our stochastic methodology are age-gender-area specific net migration rates. The projected range of rates of population growth is wider for smaller regions and/or regions more strongly affected by net migration. Generally, the identified and modelled uncertainty makes the traditional ‘mid range’ scenario of sub-national population projections of limited use for policy analysis or planning beyond a relatively short projection horizon. Directions for further development of a stochastic sub-national projection methodology are suggested

Africa region population projections - 1988-89

The report which is part of a series, presents population projection tables for each country in the Africa region. The report provides an explanation on projection results as well as a description of the projection methodology, summarizing the main results. The projections in the report cover the period 1985 - 2150. This time period allows countries to approach stability. The key elements in these projections are the base year (mid 1985). Total population estimates and age - sex structures are for the base period (1985 - 90). Mortality, fertility and migration rates are included in the statistics.Demographics,Health Indicators,Health Information&Communications Technologies,,Earth Sciences&GIS

A Guide to Global Population Projections

Interdisciplinary studies that draw on long-term, global population projections often make limited use of projection results, due at least in part to the historically opaque nature of the projection process. We present a guide to such projections aimed at researchers and educators who would benefit from putting them to greater use. Drawing on new practices and new thinking on uncertainty, methodology, and the likely future courses of fertility and life expectancy, we discuss who makes projections and how, and the key assumptions upon which they are based. We also compare methodology and recent results from prominent institutions and provide a guide to other sources of demographic information, pointers to projection results, and an entry point to key literature in the field.forecasting, population projections, projection methodology, uncertainty

Kagera Regional and District Projections

This report presents population projections for the period 2003 to 2025 for the Kagera Region and its districts. The projections were made using a Cohort Component Method (Spectrum System), whereby three components responsible for population change, namely: mortality, fertility and migration were projected separately as well as HIV/AIDS prevalence. The projected components were then applied to 2002 midyear base population in order to come up with the desired projections from 2003 to 2025. The report gives mortality, fertility, migration and HIV/AIDS assumptions, which depicts Kagera’s demographic and socio-economic future trends. The results include estimated population by sex in single years and five-year age groups as well as some demographic indicators. Population growth for the period 2003 to 2025 shows an increase in growth rates. The projections show that population growth rate will increase from 3.1 percent in 2003 (with a population of 1,982,612) to 3.7 percent in 2025 (with a population of 4,511,927). Sex Ratio at birth is projected to increase from 96 male births per 100 females in 2003 to 99 male births per 100 females in 2025. Mortality estimates show that Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is expected to decline for both sexes from 117 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2003 to 72 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2025. Under Five Mortality Rate (U5MR) for both sexes will also decline from 195 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2003 to 113 deaths per 1,000 live births in the year 2025. The mortality projected estimates further show that the life expectancy at birth for females is higher compared to that of males, which is expected. Life expectancy at birth for Kagera will increase from 48 years in 2003 to 55 years in 2025 for both sexes. For male population, life expectancy at birth will increase from 46 years in year 2003 to 54 years in 2025, while for female population the life expectancy at birth will increase from 49 years in 2003 to 56 years in 2025

Asia region population projections : 1988-89 edition

Population projections are provided here for the individual countries comprising the Asia region. The projections cover the period 1985-2150. The length of the projection period was chosen to allow countries to approach stability, which for several is expected to take as long as two centuries. The paper begins with an introduction which explains what projection results are provided in the detailed tables, describes the projection methodology, and summarizes and interprets the main results.Demographics,Health Indicators,Health Information&Communications Technologies,,Health Monitoring&Evaluation

Africa region population projections : 1990-91

As recently as the mid-1970s, the Africa region had a smaller population than the Asia, the Latin American and the Caribbean, or the Europe, Middle East, and North Africa regions. Explosive population growth of more than 3 percent per year, projected to decline only gradually, will make Africa the second largest region by 2005. Its share of the world's population will increase from less than 10 percent now to 20 percent in the middle of the next century and to 25 percent when stationarity is finally reached. Vital rates vary relatively little among the subregions of sub-Saharan Africa. Fertility is uniformly high, with the total fertility rate higher than 6 children per woman. Linked with high fertility are high infant mortality rates, which are above 100 per thousand births for subregions. A few countries - Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Kenya - are leading the way in the African fertility transition. Recent fertility surveys in these countries show an increase in the use of contraceptives and the first evidence of fertility decline. It is assumed in the projections that this trend will spread to other countries. Most African governments now report their country's population growth rates as too high.Demographics,Health Indicators,Health Information&Communications Technologies,,Earth Sciences&GIS

POPULATION, PROJECTIONS, AND POLICY: A CAUTIONARY PERSPECTIVE

Population projections depend on censuses, vital statistics, and sample surveys, all of which have deficiencies that are most marked in developing countries. Long-range projections by international agencies have recently undergone major revisions, and forecasts of the United States (U.S.) population have changed drastically over the past four years. The United Nations (UN) typically prepares high, medium, and low projections. Even the high projection contains optimistic assumptions about fertility decline, while assumptions of constant or increasing fertility receive no serious attention. This paper suggests that high and constant fertility projections should receive more attention from policymakers. They should treat medium estimates as targets achievable only through considerable programmatic effort. At the same time, they should plan economic and environmental efforts to deal with the population sizes implied by the high projections.Labor and Human Capital,

Victoria in future 2014

Summary Victoria in Future 2014 (VIF2014) is the official state government projection of population and households. Projections are used by decision makers across government and in other areas. The results are driven by assumptions concerning demographic and land use trends. Projections are based on the latest (30 June 2013) population estimates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and incorporate the results of the 2011 Census. For Victoria and major regions, the projections cover the period from 2011 to 2051. For Local Government Areas (LGA), the projections extend to 2031