5 research outputs found
Planning as Inference in Epidemiological Models
In this work we demonstrate how existing software tools can be used to
automate parts of infectious disease-control policy-making via performing
inference in existing epidemiological dynamics models. The kind of inference
tasks undertaken include computing, for planning purposes, the posterior
distribution over putatively controllable, via direct policy-making choices,
simulation model parameters that give rise to acceptable disease progression
outcomes. Neither the full capabilities of such inference automation software
tools nor their utility for planning is widely disseminated at the current
time. Timely gains in understanding about these tools and how they can be used
may lead to more fine-grained and less economically damaging policy
prescriptions, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic.Comment: minor typos correcte
Simulation-Based Inference for Global Health Decisions
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of in-silico
epidemiological modelling in predicting the dynamics of infectious diseases to
inform health policy and decision makers about suitable prevention and
containment strategies. Work in this setting involves solving challenging
inference and control problems in individual-based models of ever increasing
complexity. Here we discuss recent breakthroughs in machine learning,
specifically in simulation-based inference, and explore its potential as a
novel venue for model calibration to support the design and evaluation of
public health interventions. To further stimulate research, we are developing
software interfaces that turn two cornerstone COVID-19 and malaria epidemiology
models COVID-sim, (https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim/) and OpenMalaria
(https://github.com/SwissTPH/openmalaria) into probabilistic programs, enabling
efficient interpretable Bayesian inference within those simulators
Simulation Intelligence: Towards a New Generation of Scientific Methods
The original "Seven Motifs" set forth a roadmap of essential methods for the
field of scientific computing, where a motif is an algorithmic method that
captures a pattern of computation and data movement. We present the "Nine
Motifs of Simulation Intelligence", a roadmap for the development and
integration of the essential algorithms necessary for a merger of scientific
computing, scientific simulation, and artificial intelligence. We call this
merger simulation intelligence (SI), for short. We argue the motifs of
simulation intelligence are interconnected and interdependent, much like the
components within the layers of an operating system. Using this metaphor, we
explore the nature of each layer of the simulation intelligence operating
system stack (SI-stack) and the motifs therein: (1) Multi-physics and
multi-scale modeling; (2) Surrogate modeling and emulation; (3)
Simulation-based inference; (4) Causal modeling and inference; (5) Agent-based
modeling; (6) Probabilistic programming; (7) Differentiable programming; (8)
Open-ended optimization; (9) Machine programming. We believe coordinated
efforts between motifs offers immense opportunity to accelerate scientific
discovery, from solving inverse problems in synthetic biology and climate
science, to directing nuclear energy experiments and predicting emergent
behavior in socioeconomic settings. We elaborate on each layer of the SI-stack,
detailing the state-of-art methods, presenting examples to highlight challenges
and opportunities, and advocating for specific ways to advance the motifs and
the synergies from their combinations. Advancing and integrating these
technologies can enable a robust and efficient hypothesis-simulation-analysis
type of scientific method, which we introduce with several use-cases for
human-machine teaming and automated science