Predicting customer's gender and age depending on mobile phone data

In the age of data driven solution, the customer demographic attributes, such as gender and age, play a core role that may enable companies to enhance the offers of their services and target the right customer in the right time and place. In the marketing campaign, the companies want to target the real user of the GSM (global system for mobile communications), not the line owner. Where sometimes they may not be the same. This work proposes a method that predicts users' gender and age based on their behavior, services and contract information. We used call detail records (CDRs), customer relationship management (CRM) and billing information as a data source to analyze telecom customer behavior, and applied different types of machine learning algorithms to provide marketing campaigns with more accurate information about customer demographic attributes. This model is built using reliable data set of 18,000 users provided by SyriaTel Telecom Company, for training and testing. The model applied by using big data technology and achieved 85.6% accuracy in terms of user gender prediction and 65.5% of user age prediction. The main contribution of this work is the improvement in the accuracy in terms of user gender prediction and user age prediction based on mobile phone data and end-to-end solution that approaches customer data from multiple aspects in the telecom domain

DeepMood: Modeling Mobile Phone Typing Dynamics for Mood Detection

The increasing use of electronic forms of communication presents new opportunities in the study of mental health, including the ability to investigate the manifestations of psychiatric diseases unobtrusively and in the setting of patients' daily lives. A pilot study to explore the possible connections between bipolar affective disorder and mobile phone usage was conducted. In this study, participants were provided a mobile phone to use as their primary phone. This phone was loaded with a custom keyboard that collected metadata consisting of keypress entry time and accelerometer movement. Individual character data with the exceptions of the backspace key and space bar were not collected due to privacy concerns. We propose an end-to-end deep architecture based on late fusion, named DeepMood, to model the multi-view metadata for the prediction of mood scores. Experimental results show that 90.31% prediction accuracy on the depression score can be achieved based on session-level mobile phone typing dynamics which is typically less than one minute. It demonstrates the feasibility of using mobile phone metadata to infer mood disturbance and severity.Comment: KDD 201

Accurate Short-Term Yield Curve Forecasting using Functional Gradient Descent

We propose a multivariate nonparametric technique for generating reliable shortterm historical yield curve scenarios and confidence intervals. The approach is based on a Functional Gradient Descent (FGD) estimation of the conditional mean vector and covariance matrix of a multivariate interest rate series. It is computationally feasible in large dimensions and it can account for non-linearities in the dependence of interest rates at all available maturities. Based on FGD we apply filtered historical simulation to compute reliable out-of-sample yield curve scenarios and confidence intervals. We back-test our methodology on daily USD bond data for forecasting horizons from 1 to 10 days. Based on several statistical performance measures we find significant evidence of a higher predictive power of our method when compared to scenarios generating techniques based on (i) factor analysis, (ii) a multivariate CCC-GARCH model, or (iii) an exponential smoothing covariances estimator as in the RiskMetricsTM approach.Conditional mean and variance estimation, Filtered Historical Simulation, Functional Gradient Descent, Term structure; Multivariate CCC-GARCH models

Predicting Session Length in Media Streaming

Session length is a very important aspect in determining a user's satisfaction with a media streaming service. Being able to predict how long a session will last can be of great use for various downstream tasks, such as recommendations and ad scheduling. Most of the related literature on user interaction duration has focused on dwell time for websites, usually in the context of approximating post-click satisfaction either in search results, or display ads. In this work we present the first analysis of session length in a mobile-focused online service, using a real world data-set from a major music streaming service. We use survival analysis techniques to show that the characteristics of the length distributions can differ significantly between users, and use gradient boosted trees with appropriate objectives to predict the length of a session using only information available at its beginning. Our evaluation on real world data illustrates that our proposed technique outperforms the considered baseline.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Masquerade Detection on Mobile Devices

A masquerade is an attack where the attacker avoids detection by impersonating an authorized user of a system. In this research we consider the problem of masquerade detection on mobile devices. Our goal is to improve on previous work by considering more features and a wide variety of machine learning techniques. Our approach consists of verifying the authenticity of users based on individual features and combinations of features for all users to determine which features contribute the most to masquerade detection. Also, we determine which of the two approaches - the combination of features or using individual features has performed better

Gesture recognition by learning local motion signatures using smartphones

In recent years, gesture or activity recognition is an important area of research for the modern health care system. An activity is recognized by learning from human body postures and signatures. Presently all smartphones are equipped with accelerometer and gyroscopes sensors, and the reading of these sensors can be utilized as an input to a classifier to predict the human activity. Although the human activity recognition gained a notable scientific interest in recent years, still accuracy, scalability and robustness need significant improvement to cater as a solution of most of the real world problems. This paper aims to fill the identified research gap and proposes Grid Search based Logistic Regression and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree multistage prediction model. UCI-HAR dataset has been used to perform Gesture recognition by learning local motion signatures. The proposed approach exhibits improved accuracy over preexisting techniques concerning to human activity recognition