12 research outputs found
Petition Growth and Success Rates on the UK No. 10 Downing Street Website
Now that so much of collective action takes place online, web-generated data
can further understanding of the mechanics of Internet-based mobilisation. This
trace data offers social science researchers the potential for new forms of
analysis, using real-time transactional data based on entire populations,
rather than sample-based surveys of what people think they did or might do.
This paper uses a `big data' approach to track the growth of over 8,000
petitions to the UK Government on the No. 10 Downing Street website for two
years, analysing the rate of growth per day and testing the hypothesis that the
distribution of daily change will be leptokurtic (rather than normal) as
previous research on agenda setting would suggest. This hypothesis is
confirmed, suggesting that Internet-based mobilisation is characterized by
tipping points (or punctuated equilibria) and explaining some of the volatility
in online collective action. We find also that most successful petitions grow
quickly and that the number of signatures a petition receives on its first day
is a significant factor in explaining the overall number of signatures a
petition receives during its lifetime. These findings have implications for the
strategies of those initiating petitions and the design of web sites with the
aim of maximising citizen engagement with policy issues.Comment: To appear in proceeding of WebSci'13, May 1-5, 2013, Paris, Franc
Modeling the Rise in Internet-based Petitions
Contemporary collective action, much of which involves social media and other
Internet-based platforms, leaves a digital imprint which may be harvested to
better understand the dynamics of mobilization. Petition signing is an example
of collective action which has gained in popularity with rising use of social
media and provides such data for the whole population of petition signatories
for a given platform. This paper tracks the growth curves of all 20,000
petitions to the UK government over 18 months, analyzing the rate of growth and
outreach mechanism. Previous research has suggested the importance of the first
day to the ultimate success of a petition, but has not examined early growth
within that day, made possible here through hourly resolution in the data. The
analysis shows that the vast majority of petitions do not achieve any measure
of success; over 99 percent fail to get the 10,000 signatures required for an
official response and only 0.1 percent attain the 100,000 required for a
parliamentary debate. We analyze the data through a multiplicative process
model framework to explain the heterogeneous growth of signatures at the
population level. We define and measure an average outreach factor for
petitions and show that it decays very fast (reducing to 0.1% after 10 hours).
After 24 hours, a petition's fate is virtually set. The findings seem to
challenge conventional analyses of collective action from economics and
political science, where the production function has been assumed to follow an
S-shaped curve.Comment: Submitted to EPJ Data Scienc
Please Sign to Save... : How Online EnvironmentalPetitions Succeed
Social media have become one of the key platforms to support the debate on climate change. In particular, Twitter allows easy information dissemination when running environmental campaigns. Yet, the dynamics of these campaigns on social platforms still remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we study the success factors enabling online petitions to attain their required number of signatures. We present an analysis of e-petitions and identify how their number of users, tweets and retweets correlate with their success. In addition, we show that environmental petitions are actively promoted by popular public campaigns on Twitter. Finally, we present an annotated corpus of petitions posted by environmental campaigns together with their corresponding tweets to enable further exploration
Investigating Political Participation and Social Information Using Big Data and a Natural Experiment
Social information is particularly prominent in digital settings where the
design of platforms can more easily give real-time information about the
behaviour of peers and reference groups and thereby stimulate political
activity. Changes to these platforms can generate natural experiments allowing
an assessment of the impact of changes in social information and design on
participation. This paper investigates the impact of the introduction of
trending information on the homepage of the UK government petitions platform.
Using interrupted time series and a regression discontinuity design, we find
that the introduction of the trending feature had no statistically significant
effect on the overall number of signatures per day, but that the distribution
of signatures across petitions changes: the most popular petitions gain even
more signatures at the expense of those with less signatories. We find
significant differences between petitions trending at different ranks, even
after controlling for each petition's individual growth prior to trending. The
findings suggest a non-negligible group of individuals visit the homepage of
the site looking for petitions to sign and therefore see the list of trending
petitions, and a significant proportion of this group responds to the social
information that it provides. These findings contribute to our understanding of
how social information, and the form in which it is presented, affects
individual political behaviour in digital settings.Comment: Prepared for delivery at the 2014 Annual Meeting of the American
Political Science Association, August 28-31, 201
The impact of open data in the UK: complex, unpredictable, and political
This article examines the democratic impact of the UK coalition government's Transparency Agenda, focusing on the publication of all local government spending over Β£500 by councils in England. It looks at whether the new data have driven increased democratic accountability, public participation, and information transmission. The evidence suggests that the local government spending data have driven some accountability. However, rather than forging new βperformance regimesβ, creating βarmchair auditorsβ, or bringing mass use and involvement, the publication creates a further element of political disruption. Assessment of the use and impact of the new spending data finds it is more complex, more unpredictable, and more political than the rhetoric around Open Data indicates. The danger is that the gap between aims and impact invites disappointment from supporters
A Multi-Appeal Model of Persuasion for Online Petition Success: A Linguistic Cue-Based Approach
Online petitions have become a powerful tool used by the public to affect change in society. Despite the increasing popularity of these petitions, it remains unclear how the public consumes and interprets their content and how this helps the creators of online petitions achieve their goals. This study investigates how linguistic factors present in online petition texts influence petition success. Specifically, drawing upon the dual-process theory of persuasion and the moral persuasion literature, this study examines cognitive, emotional, and moral linguistic factors in petition texts and identifies how they contribute to the success or failure of online petitions. The results, which are based on an analysis of 45,377 petitions from Change.org, show that petitions containing positive emotions and enlightening information are more likely to succeed. Contrary to popular belief, petitions containing heavy cognitive reasoning and those emphasizing moral judgment are less likely to succeed. This study also exemplifies the use of an analytical approach for examining crowd-sourced content involving online political phenomena related to policy-making, governance, political campaigns, and large social causes
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