AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ASPECTS OF PETROLEUM AND MILITARY SECURITY IN THE PERSIAN GULF

Geologic estimates of remaining global petroleum resources place about 50% in the Persian Gulf. Production costs are estimated at $5 per barrel there, and$15 per barrel in the North Sea and Alaska. Using mathematical methods derived from depletion theory is utilized to explain the $15-$20 per barrel price band that existed from 1986 to 1999. New economic forces have displaced this previously stable pattern; a new price range of $22-to$28 may be emerging. International trade in petroleum and conventional weapons are analyzed with econometric methods; the occurrence of nuclear weapons capability in the Persian Gulf region is explored.International Relations/Trade, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

WORLD OIL: THE GROWING CASE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLICY

Can the economic theory of depletion be reconciled with low petroleum? This paper uses a revision of the theory, which reflects demand functions that rise in response to increasing world population and income. The magnitude of producers’ and consumers’ surplus is estimated under both competitive and monopolistic assumptions; the result indicates a present value comparable to or in excess of today’s Gross World Economic Product. Game theory suggests a framework which explains the interaction between oil pricing and military policy, and the economic incentives which result in a general pattern of recent market equilibrium crude oil prices often fluctuating within a $15-$20 per barrel range. The analysis concludes that the economic incentives for political instability in the Persian Gulf will increase, and more formal methods of setting the international framework for Persian Gulf oil may be expected.International Relations/Trade, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

The power of one

This paper provides a blueprint for anyone who would join the effort to prevent future wars by choosing a less energy intensive lifestyle today

Iran, America and Iranian American Community in Firoozeh Jazayeri Dumas\u27 Funny in Farsi

Post 9/11 the United States of America concerns the reconstruction of already demonized identities of Arabs and Middle-eastern cultures. Postcolonial works reside in their rendering a tragic or serious image of Middle Easterners to bring the Western (American) audience into sympathizing with the Middle Eastern ethnicities. Could it be the case that a fundamentally humorous (not derogatory) depiction might contribute to easing such cultural tensions? Firoozeh Jazayeri Dumas\u27 works stand out as critically acclaimed and successful works familiarizing the American audience with the more humane, likeable, sweet and funny aspects of the Iranians and Iranian culture, and the hardships of being an Iranian immigrant and becoming a hybrid individual. This article explores the already-hybridized self and psyche of Firoozeh as an Iranian American. She writes about her mother land and her residence country and comparing the way she has written about them can help readers understand how one can make peace between different parts of her identity

The Costs of U.S. Oil Dependency

This paper first describes trends and future predictions of factors that determine U.S. dependence on oil and oil imports. We then review evidence on the oil premium, that is, the extent to which the costs to the United States as a whole from extra oil consumption may exceed the private costs to individual oil users. The premium has two main components: one reflects the risk of macroeconomic disruptions from oil price shocks, while the other stems from U.S. market power in the world oil market. Our best assessment of the oil premium is $5/barrel (equivalent to 12 cents per gallon of gasoline), which would warrant a broad, though moderately scaled, tax on all uses of oil.energy security; oil imports; oil premium; macroeconomic disruptions

Stability versus Sustainability: Energy Policy in the Gulf Monarchies

The six Persian Gulf monarchies are home to some of the world's largest hydrocarbon reserves, and also some of the cheapest energy prices and highest per-capita consumption. Government subsidies based on socio-political objectives have contributed to regime longevity, but they have also stimulated demand for resources comprising the region's chief export and biggest contributor to GDP. This paper finds that these monarchies – Qatar excepted – face an increasingly acute conflict between maintaining subsidies and sustaining exports. A shift to a higher-cost model of energy provision is underway. The era when primary energy was considered nearly free is being eclipsed by one where new sources of demand are met by more expensive resources. For now, governments have absorbed the increased costs. Consumers have been insulated from higher prices. This counterproductive practice only intensifies the call on exportable resources. The choice for regimes is one of short-term political stability versus longer term economic sustainability. As energy production reaches a plateau, domestic consumption will gradually displace exports. Politically difficult reforms that moderate consumption can therefore extend the longevity of exports, and perhaps, the regimes themselves.rentier stat

Britain’s decision to withdraw from the Persian Gulf: a pattern not a puzzle

The reasons for the British decision to withdraw from the Gulf are highly contentious. While some scholars have focused on short-term considerations, especially the devaluation of sterling towards the end of 1967, in the British determination to quit the Gulf, others have concentrated on longer-term trends in British policy-making for the region. This article sides with the latter. Britain's Gulf role came under increasing scrutiny following the 1956 Suez crisis as part of an ongoing debate about the costs and benefits of Britain's Gulf presence. In this sense, British withdrawal fitted into a wider pattern of British decolonisation. By the 1960s, the Treasury, in particular, strongly questioned the necessity and cost-effectiveness of the maintenance of empire in the Gulf to safeguard British economic interests there. Recent interpretations which seek to disaggregate the British decision to leave Southeast Asia from the decision to depart from the Gulf are also questionable. By mid-1967, it had already been determined that Britain would leave both regions by the mid-1970s, the only difference being that this decision was formally announced with respect to Southeast Asia, but not with regard to the Gulf. The devaluation of sterling in November 1967, therefore, merely hastened and facilitated decisions which had already been taken. Despite the end of formal empire in the Gulf, Britain did seek, not always successfully, to preserve its interests into the 1970s and beyond

ECOLOGY AND VIOLENCE: THE ENVIRONMENTAL DIMENSIONS OF WAR

Research reported by Thomas Homer-Dixon characterizes five social effects that can significantly increase the likelihood of violence in the emerging world, effects that are far deeper than can be controlled by security forces: (1) constrained agricultural production, often in ecologically marginal regions; (2) constrained economic productivity, mainly affecting people who are highly dependent on environmental resources and who are ecologically and economically marginal; (3) migration of these affected people in search of better lives; (4) greater segmentation of society, usually along existing ethnic cleavages; and (5) disruption of institutions, especially the state.1 These kinds of social effects create tensions that can erupt in violent expression. It is difficult to envision how additional security forces will solve the embedded social problems that link violence with economic, social, ethnic, and even religious frustrations. This manuscript seeks to address these concerns. Part I elaborates ways in which these issues of violence manifest themselves in a globalized economy. Part II discusses the business implications of these tensions and suggests a way in which business can be a mediating actor to lessen these tensions. Part III concludes with a suggestion for a recharacterization of the corporation in a way to sensitize it to the ecological-mindedness necessary to address the potential issues of violence in societies. We propose sustainable peace as an aim to which businesses should orient their actions both for reasons of the good of avoiding the activities that contribute to the spilling of blood as well as for the good of sustainable economic enterprises, which are fostered by stable, peaceful relationships. Thus, business must do what it does best and address economic development, even in terms of the extraction of natural resources. But it must also be attentive to the rights of others, to the development of community and meaning, and to stop violence when it is likely. Given the dangers ecological stresses pose for the planet, it is hard to think of a more compelling reason to reorient business behavior.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40084/3/wp698.pd

Don't Increase Federal Gasoline Taxes - Abolish Them

Many experts believe that gasoline taxes should be increased for a variety of reasons. Their arguments are unpersuasive. Oil is not disappearing, and when it becomes more expensive, market agents will substitute away from gasoline to save money. The link between oil price shocks and recessions, although real in the 1970s, has been much more benign since 1985 because of the termination of price controls. Market actors properly account for energy costs in their purchasing decisions absent government intervention. Pollution taxes, congestion fees, and automobile insurance premiums more closely related to vehicle miles traveled are better remedies for the externalities associated with automobile travel than a simple fuel tax. Gasoline consumption does not necessarily distort American foreign policy, impose military commitments, or empower Islamic terrorist organizations. State and federal gasoline taxes should be abolished. Local governments should tax gasoline only to the extent necessary to pay for roads when user charges are not feasible. If government feels compelled to more aggressively regulate vehicle tailpipe emissions or access to public roadways, pollution taxes and road user fees are better means of doing so than fuel taxes. Regardless, perfectly internalizing motor vehicle externalities would likely make the economy less efficient -- not more -- by inducing motorists into even more (economically) inefficient mass transit use. The arguments advanced against increasing gasoline taxes are applicable to the broader discussion about America's reliance on oil generally. The case for policies designed to discourage oil consumption is nearly as threadbare as the case for increasing the gasoline tax -- and for largely the same reasons