Modeling Financial Time Series with Artificial Neural Networks

Financial time series convey the decisions and actions of a population of human actors over time. Econometric and regressive models have been developed in the past decades for analyzing these time series. More recently, biologically inspired artificial neural network models have been shown to overcome some of the main challenges of traditional techniques by better exploiting the non-linear, non-stationary, and oscillatory nature of noisy, chaotic human interactions. This review paper explores the options, benefits, and weaknesses of the various forms of artificial neural networks as compared with regression techniques in the field of financial time series analysis.CELEST, a National Science Foundation Science of Learning Center (SBE-0354378); SyNAPSE program of the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (HR001109-03-0001

A Low-Cost Robust Distributed Linearly Constrained Beamformer for Wireless Acoustic Sensor Networks with Arbitrary Topology

We propose a new robust distributed linearly constrained beamformer which utilizes a set of linear equality constraints to reduce the cross power spectral density matrix to a block-diagonal form. The proposed beamformer has a convenient objective function for use in arbitrary distributed network topologies while having identical performance to a centralized implementation. Moreover, the new optimization problem is robust to relative acoustic transfer function (RATF) estimation errors and to target activity detection (TAD) errors. Two variants of the proposed beamformer are presented and evaluated in the context of multi-microphone speech enhancement in a wireless acoustic sensor network, and are compared with other state-of-the-art distributed beamformers in terms of communication costs and robustness to RATF estimation errors and TAD errors

Asynchronous Gossip for Averaging and Spectral Ranking

We consider two variants of the classical gossip algorithm. The first variant is a version of asynchronous stochastic approximation. We highlight a fundamental difficulty associated with the classical asynchronous gossip scheme, viz., that it may not converge to a desired average, and suggest an alternative scheme based on reinforcement learning that has guaranteed convergence to the desired average. We then discuss a potential application to a wireless network setting with simultaneous link activation constraints. The second variant is a gossip algorithm for distributed computation of the Perron-Frobenius eigenvector of a nonnegative matrix. While the first variant draws upon a reinforcement learning algorithm for an average cost controlled Markov decision problem, the second variant draws upon a reinforcement learning algorithm for risk-sensitive control. We then discuss potential applications of the second variant to ranking schemes, reputation networks, and principal component analysis.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures. Minor revisio

Performance analysis with network-enhanced complexities: On fading measurements, event-triggered mechanisms, and cyber attacks

Copyright © 2014 Derui Ding et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Nowadays, the real-world systems are usually subject to various complexities such as parameter uncertainties, time-delays, and nonlinear disturbances. For networked systems, especially large-scale systems such as multiagent systems and systems over sensor networks, the complexities are inevitably enhanced in terms of their degrees or intensities because of the usage of the communication networks. Therefore, it would be interesting to (1) examine how this kind of network-enhanced complexities affects the control or filtering performance; and (2) develop some suitable approaches for controller/filter design problems. In this paper, we aim to survey some recent advances on the performance analysis and synthesis with three sorts of fashionable network-enhanced complexities, namely, fading measurements, event-triggered mechanisms, and attack behaviors of adversaries. First, these three kinds of complexities are introduced in detail according to their engineering backgrounds, dynamical characteristic, and modelling techniques. Then, the developments of the performance analysis and synthesis issues for various networked systems are systematically reviewed. Furthermore, some challenges are illustrated by using a thorough literature review and some possible future research directions are highlighted.This work was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants 61134009, 61329301, 61203139, 61374127, and 61374010, the Royal Society of the UK, and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation of Germany