Forecasting bus passenger flows by using a clustering-based support vector regression approach

As a significant component of the intelligent transportation system, forecasting bus passenger flows plays a key role in resource allocation, network planning, and frequency setting. However, it remains challenging to recognize high fluctuations, nonlinearity, and periodicity of bus passenger flows due to varied destinations and departure times. For this reason, a novel forecasting model named as affinity propagation-based support vector regression (AP-SVR) is proposed based on clustering and nonlinear simulation. For the addressed approach, a clustering algorithm is first used to generate clustering-based intervals. A support vector regression (SVR) is then exploited to forecast the passenger flow for each cluster, with the use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) for obtaining the optimized parameters. Finally, the prediction results of the SVR are rearranged by chronological order rearrangement. The proposed model is tested using real bus passenger data from a bus line over four months. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model performs better than other peer models in terms of absolute percentage error and mean absolute percentage error. It is recommended that the deterministic clustering technique with stable cluster results (AP) can improve the forecasting performance significantly.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Adaptive particle swarm optimization

An adaptive particle swarm optimization (APSO) that features better search efficiency than classical particle swarm optimization (PSO) is presented. More importantly, it can perform a global search over the entire search space with faster convergence speed. The APSO consists of two main steps. First, by evaluating the population distribution and particle fitness, a real-time evolutionary state estimation procedure is performed to identify one of the following four defined evolutionary states, including exploration, exploitation, convergence, and jumping out in each generation. It enables the automatic control of inertia weight, acceleration coefficients, and other algorithmic parameters at run time to improve the search efficiency and convergence speed. Then, an elitist learning strategy is performed when the evolutionary state is classified as convergence state. The strategy will act on the globally best particle to jump out of the likely local optima. The APSO has comprehensively been evaluated on 12 unimodal and multimodal benchmark functions. The effects of parameter adaptation and elitist learning will be studied. Results show that APSO substantially enhances the performance of the PSO paradigm in terms of convergence speed, global optimality, solution accuracy, and algorithm reliability. As APSO introduces two new parameters to the PSO paradigm only, it does not introduce an additional design or implementation complexity

Adaptive multimodal continuous ant colony optimization

Seeking multiple optima simultaneously, which multimodal optimization aims at, has attracted increasing attention but remains challenging. Taking advantage of ant colony optimization algorithms in preserving high diversity, this paper intends to extend ant colony optimization algorithms to deal with multimodal optimization. First, combined with current niching methods, an adaptive multimodal continuous ant colony optimization algorithm is introduced. In this algorithm, an adaptive parameter adjustment is developed, which takes the difference among niches into consideration. Second, to accelerate convergence, a differential evolution mutation operator is alternatively utilized to build base vectors for ants to construct new solutions. Then, to enhance the exploitation, a local search scheme based on Gaussian distribution is self-adaptively performed around the seeds of niches. Together, the proposed algorithm affords a good balance between exploration and exploitation. Extensive experiments on 20 widely used benchmark multimodal functions are conducted to investigate the influence of each algorithmic component and results are compared with several state-of-the-art multimodal algorithms and winners of competitions on multimodal optimization. These comparisons demonstrate the competitive efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, especially in dealing with complex problems with high numbers of local optima

A Study of recent classification algorithms and a novel approach for biosignal data classification

Analyzing and understanding human biosignals have been important research areas that have many practical applications in everyday life. For example, Brain Computer Interface is a research area that studies the connection between the human brain and external systems by processing and learning the brain signals called Electroencephalography (EEG) signals. Similarly, various assistive robotics applications are being developed to interpret eye or muscle signals in humans in order to provide control inputs for external devices. The efficiency for all of these applications depends heavily on being able to process and classify human biosignals. Therefore many techniques from Signal Processing and Machine Learning fields are applied in order to understand human biosignals better and increase the efficiency and success of these applications. This thesis proposes a new classifier for biosignal data classification utilizing Particle Swarm Optimization Clustering and Radial Basis Function Networks (RBFN). The performance of the proposed classifier together with several variations in the technique is analyzed by utilizing comparisons with the state of the art classifiers such as Fuzzy Functions Support Vector Machines (FFSVM), Improved Fuzzy Functions Support Vector Machines (IFFSVM). These classifiers are implemented on the classification of same biological signals in order to evaluate the proposed technique. Several clustering algorithms, which are used in these classifiers, such as K-means, Fuzzy c-means, and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), are studied and compared with each other based on clustering abilities. The effects of the analyzed clustering algorithms in the performance of Radial Basis Functions Networks classifier are investigated. Strengths and weaknesses are analyzed on various standard and EEG datasets. Results show that the proposed classifier that combines PSO clustering with RBFN classifier can reach or exceed the performance of these state of the art classifiers. Finally, the proposed classification technique is applied to a real-time system application where a mobile robot is controlled based on person\u27s EEG signal

Multimodal estimation of distribution algorithms

Taking the advantage of estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs) in preserving high diversity, this paper proposes a multimodal EDA. Integrated with clustering strategies for crowding and speciation, two versions of this algorithm are developed, which operate at the niche level. Then these two algorithms are equipped with three distinctive techniques: 1) a dynamic cluster sizing strategy; 2) an alternative utilization of Gaussian and Cauchy distributions to generate offspring; and 3) an adaptive local search. The dynamic cluster sizing affords a potential balance between exploration and exploitation and reduces the sensitivity to the cluster size in the niching methods. Taking advantages of Gaussian and Cauchy distributions, we generate the offspring at the niche level through alternatively using these two distributions. Such utilization can also potentially offer a balance between exploration and exploitation. Further, solution accuracy is enhanced through a new local search scheme probabilistically conducted around seeds of niches with probabilities determined self-adaptively according to fitness values of these seeds. Extensive experiments conducted on 20 benchmark multimodal problems confirm that both algorithms can achieve competitive performance compared with several state-of-the-art multimodal algorithms, which is supported by nonparametric tests. Especially, the proposed algorithms are very promising for complex problems with many local optima