24,467 research outputs found
Predicting the Effects of News Sentiments on the Stock Market
Stock market forecasting is very important in the planning of business
activities. Stock price prediction has attracted many researchers in multiple
disciplines including computer science, statistics, economics, finance, and
operations research. Recent studies have shown that the vast amount of online
information in the public domain such as Wikipedia usage pattern, news stories
from the mainstream media, and social media discussions can have an observable
effect on investors opinions towards financial markets. The reliability of the
computational models on stock market prediction is important as it is very
sensitive to the economy and can directly lead to financial loss. In this
paper, we retrieved, extracted, and analyzed the effects of news sentiments on
the stock market. Our main contributions include the development of a sentiment
analysis dictionary for the financial sector, the development of a
dictionary-based sentiment analysis model, and the evaluation of the model for
gauging the effects of news sentiments on stocks for the pharmaceutical market.
Using only news sentiments, we achieved a directional accuracy of 70.59% in
predicting the trends in short-term stock price movement.Comment: 4 page
Numeral Understanding in Financial Tweets for Fine-grained Crowd-based Forecasting
Numerals that contain much information in financial documents are crucial for
financial decision making. They play different roles in financial analysis
processes. This paper is aimed at understanding the meanings of numerals in
financial tweets for fine-grained crowd-based forecasting. We propose a
taxonomy that classifies the numerals in financial tweets into 7 categories,
and further extend some of these categories into several subcategories. Neural
network-based models with word and character-level encoders are proposed for
7-way classification and 17-way classification. We perform backtest to confirm
the effectiveness of the numeric opinions made by the crowd. This work is the
first attempt to understand numerals in financial social media data, and we
provide the first comparison of fine-grained opinion of individual investors
and analysts based on their forecast price. The numeral corpus used in our
experiments, called FinNum 1.0 , is available for research purposes.Comment: Accepted by the 2018 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web
Intelligence (WI 2018), Santiago, Chil
Sentiment Analysis of Twitter Data for Predicting Stock Market Movements
Predicting stock market movements is a well-known problem of interest.
Now-a-days social media is perfectly representing the public sentiment and
opinion about current events. Especially, twitter has attracted a lot of
attention from researchers for studying the public sentiments. Stock market
prediction on the basis of public sentiments expressed on twitter has been an
intriguing field of research. Previous studies have concluded that the
aggregate public mood collected from twitter may well be correlated with Dow
Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA). The thesis of this work is to observe
how well the changes in stock prices of a company, the rises and falls, are
correlated with the public opinions being expressed in tweets about that
company. Understanding author's opinion from a piece of text is the objective
of sentiment analysis. The present paper have employed two different textual
representations, Word2vec and N-gram, for analyzing the public sentiments in
tweets. In this paper, we have applied sentiment analysis and supervised
machine learning principles to the tweets extracted from twitter and analyze
the correlation between stock market movements of a company and sentiments in
tweets. In an elaborate way, positive news and tweets in social media about a
company would definitely encourage people to invest in the stocks of that
company and as a result the stock price of that company would increase. At the
end of the paper, it is shown that a strong correlation exists between the rise
and falls in stock prices with the public sentiments in tweets.Comment: 6 pages 4 figures Conference Pape
The role of emotional variables in the classification and prediction of collective social dynamics
We demonstrate the power of data mining techniques for the analysis of
collective social dynamics within British Tweets during the Olympic Games 2012.
The classification accuracy of online activities related to the successes of
British athletes significantly improved when emotional components of tweets
were taken into account, but employing emotional variables for activity
prediction decreased the classifiers' quality. The approach could be easily
adopted for any prediction or classification study with a set of
problem-specific variables.Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables and 1 appendi
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