Filtered derivative with p-value method for multiple change-points detection

This paper deals with off-line detection of change points for time series of independent observations, when the number of change points is unknown. We propose a sequential analysis like method with linear time and memory complexity. Our method is based at first step, on Filtered Derivative method which detects the right change points but also false ones. We improve Filtered Derivative method by adding a second step in which we compute the p-values associated to each potential change points. Then we eliminate as false alarms the points which have p-value smaller than a given critical level. Next, our method is compared with the Penalized Least Square Criterion procedure on simulated data sets. Eventually, we apply Filtered Derivative with p-Value method to segmentation of heartbeat time series

Adaptive p-value weighting with power optimality

Weighting the p-values is a well-established strategy that improves the power of multiple testing procedures while dealing with heterogeneous data. However, how to achieve this task in an optimal way is rarely considered in the literature. This paper contributes to fill the gap in the case of group-structured null hypotheses, by introducing a new class of procedures named ADDOW (for Adaptive Data Driven Optimal Weighting) that adapts both to the alternative distribution and to the proportion of true null hypotheses. We prove the asymptotical FDR control and power optimality among all weighted procedures of ADDOW, which shows that it dominates all existing procedures in that framework. Some numerical experiments show that the proposed method preserves its optimal properties in the finite sample setting when the number of tests is moderately large

BEBERAPA FAKTOR YANG BERHUBUNGAN DENGAN KINERJA BIDAN DI DESA DALAM PENURUNAN KASUS KEMATIAN MATERNAL DI KABUPATEN LAMPUNG BARAT TAHUN 2003 FACTORS RELATED TO THE PERFORMANCE OF MIDWIFE IN THE VILLAGE IN DECREASING MATERNAL MORTALITY CASE AT WEST LAMPUNG DISTRICT 1N 2003

Angka kematian ibu merupakan salah satu indikator status kesehatan ibu dan bayi baru lahir. Pada tahun 2003 di Kabupaten Lampung Barat indikator yang dapat membantu menggambarkan upaya penurunan kasus kematian maternal sebagian besar mengalami penurunan cakupan dari tahun 2002 dan masih dibawah target yang telah ditentukan. Kondisi tersebut menggambarkan bahwa kinerja bidan di desa belum optimal dalam melaksanakan tugas pokok dan fungsinya dan juga peran bidan sebagai tenaga terdepan dalam upaya penurunan kasus kematian maternal. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang berhubungan dengan kinerja bidan di desa dalam penurunan kasus kematian maternal di Kabupaten Lampung Barat. Jenis penelitian yang digunakan adalah penelitian survei dengan pendekatan cross sectional. Lokasi penelitian di Kabupaten Lampung Barat dengan jumlah responden sebanyak 48 orang bidan di desa. Sumber data primer diperoleh dengan menggunakan kuesioner dan data sekunder diperoleh dari instansi yang terkait. Analisis data dilakukan secara deskriptif dan analitik dengan menggunakan uji korelasi rank spearman dan chi square dengan derajat kepercayaan 95% dan signifikansi ditentukan apabila p-value < 0,05. Pengolahan data dilakukan dengan menggunakan SPSS versi 10.0. Berdasarkan uji korelasi rank spearman dan chi square menunjukkan bahwa variabel motivasi (p-value=0,000), sarana kerja (p-value=0,013), kompensasi (p-value=0,000) dan pelatihan (p-value=0,001) terbukti secara statistik mempunyai hubungan yang signifikan dengan kinerja bidan di desa sedangkan variabel masa kerja (p-value=0,689), status perkawinan (p-value=0,415), asal daerah (p-value=0,634), supervisi dinas kesehatan )p-value=0,231), supervisi kepala puskesmas (p-value=0,850) dan letak desa (p-value=0,082) tidak memiliki hunbungan yang signifikan dengan kinerja bidan di desa. Guna meningkatkan kinerja bidan di desa agar lebih menekankan pada variabel organisasi dengan memberikan kompensasi bagi yang beprestasi dan mengadakan pelatihan dalam rangka peningkatan ketrampilan teknis bagi bidan di desa. Kepustakaan : 37, 1994-2004 The maternal mortality rate is one of indicator of mother and newborn baby's health status. In 2003 indicator which can hel to describe an effort to decrease maternal mortality case mostly experienced a scope decreasing rom 2002 and was still under the determined target. This condition indicated that the performance of midwife in the village hasn't been optimum yet in conducting its main duty and function and also the midwife's role as foremost labor in decreasing maternal mortality case. The research aims to know factors related to the performance of midwife in the village in decreasing maternal mortality case at West Lampung District. Kind of the used research was survey research with cross sectinal approach. The research location was in West Lampung District with respondents were in the amount 0f 48 midwifes in the village. The primary data source was obtained by using questioner and the secondary data was obtained from related instition. The data analysis was conducted in the way of descriptive and analytic by using a correlation test of rank spearman and chi square with trust degree of 95% and the significance was determined if p-value < 0,05. The data processing was performed by using SPSS version 10.0. Based on the correlation test of rank spearman and chi square, it was obtained that motivation variable (p-value=0,000), work means (p-value=0,013), compensation (p-value=0,000) ang training (p-value=0,001) statistically have significant correlation with the performance of midwife in the village, meanwhile the variable of work period (p-value=0,689), marriage status (p-value=0,415), place orogin (p-value=0,634), supervision of health official (p-value=0,231), supervision of the head of public health center (p-value=0,850) and the village location (p-value=0,082) have no significant correlation with the performance of midwife in the village. In order to increasing the performance of midwife in the village, it should stresses the organizational variable by giving compensation having achievement and carry out a training to increasing technical skill for midwife in the village. Literature : 37, 1994-2004 Kata Kunci: Kinerja, bidan di desa, kematian maternal Performance, midwife in the village, maternal moralit

A geometric interpretation of the permutation pp-value and its application in eQTL studies

Permutation $p$-values have been widely used to assess the significance of linkage or association in genetic studies. However, the application in large-scale studies is hindered by a heavy computational burden. We propose a geometric interpretation of permutation $p$-values, and based on this geometric interpretation, we develop an efficient permutation $p$-value estimation method in the context of regression with binary predictors. An application to a study of gene expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) shows that our method provides reliable estimates of permutation $p$-values while requiring less than 5% of the computational time compared with direct permutations. In fact, our method takes a constant time to estimate permutation $p$-values, no matter how small the $p$-value. Our method enables a study of the relationship between nominal $p$-values and permutation $p$-values in a wide range, and provides a geometric perspective on the effective number of independent tests.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS298 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A Proposed Hybrid Effect Size Plus p -Value Criterion: Empirical Evidence Supporting its Use

DOI: 10.1080/00031305.2018.1564697 When the editors of Basic and Applied Social Psychology effectively banned the use of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) from articles published in their journal, it set off a fire-storm of discussions both supporting the decision and defending the utility of NHST in scientific research. At the heart of NHST is the p-value which is the probability of obtaining an effect equal to or more extreme than the one observed in the sample data, given the null hypothesis and other model assumptions. Although this is conceptually different from the probability of the null hypothesis being true, given the sample, p-values nonetheless can provide evidential information, toward making an inference about a parameter. Applying a 10,000-case simulation described in this article, the authors found that p-values’ inferential signals to either reject or not reject a null hypothesis about the mean (α = 0.05) were consistent for almost 70% of the cases with the parameter’s true location for the sampled-from population. Success increases if a hybrid decision criterion, minimum effect size plus p-value (MESP), is used. Here, rejecting the null also requires the difference of the observed statistic from the exact null to be meaningfully large or practically significant, in the researcher’s judgment and experience. The simulation compares performances of several methods: from p-value and/or effect size-based, to confidence-interval based, under various conditions of true location of the mean, test power, and comparative sizes of the meaningful distance and population variability. For any inference procedure that outputs a binary indicator, like flagging whether a p-value is significant, the output of one single experiment is not sufficient evidence for a definitive conclusion. Yet, if a tool like MESP generates a relatively reliable signal and is used knowledgeably as part of a research process, it can provide useful information

A Smoothed P-Value Test When There is a Nuisance Parameter under the Alternative

We present a new test when there is a nuisance parameter under the alternative hypothesis. The test exploits the p-value occupation time [PVOT], the measure of the subset of a nuisance parameter on which a p-value test rejects the null hypothesis. Key contributions are: (i) An asymptotic critical value upper bound for our test is the significance level, making inference easy. Conversely, test statistic functionals need a bootstrap or simulation step which can still lead to size and power distortions, and bootstrapped or simulated critical values are not asymptotically valid under weak or non-identification. (ii) We only require the test statistic to have a known or bootstrappable limit distribution, hence we do not require root(n)-Gaussian asymptotics, and weak or non-identification is allowed. Finally, (iii) a test based on the sup-p-value may be conservative and in some cases have nearly trivial power, while the PVOT naturally controls for this by smoothing over the nuisance parameter space. We give examples and related controlled experiments concerning PVOT tests of: omitted nonlinearity; GARCH effects; and a one time structural break. Across cases, the PVOT test variously matches, dominates or strongly dominates standard tests based on the supremum p-value, or supremum or average test statistic (with wild bootstrapped p-value