Models and methods to make decisions while mining production scheduling

Purpose is to develop a new approach to the design of mining operations basing upon models and methods of decision making. Methods. The paper has applied a complex approach involving approaches of decision-making theory. Analysis of the pro-duction development scenarios is proposed for strategic activity planning; criteria to make decisions under the uncertainty conditions as well as decision-making trees for day-to-day management are proposed to determine balanced production level. Findings. It has been identified that mining production design is of the determined character demonstrating changes in “state of the nature” depending upon the made decisions. The idea of mining production is to reduce uncertainty gradually by means of analysis of production scenarios, and elimination of unfavourable alternatives. Operative management is implemented while constructing decision trees, and optimizing operation parameters. Representation of sets of rational equipment types as well as development scenarios, and their comparison in terms of decision-making parameters makes it possible to determine adequate capacity of a working area, and to reduce expenditures connected with the equipment purchase and maintenance. In this context, limiting factors, effecting anticipatory mining out-put, are taken into consideration. Successive comparison of the alternatives helps identify decision-making area for different scenarios of the production development. Originality. To manage mining production, approaches of decision-making theory have been proposed which involve the use of decision trees, decision-making criteria, and analysis of scenarios basing upon representation of operating procedures in the form of a network model within which the shortest route corresponds to optimum decision. Practical implications. Decision-making system has been developed making it possible to optimize operation parameters, to reduce prime cost of mining, and to select a structure of engineering connections with the specified production level. The described approaches may be applied at the stage of a stope design as well as in the process of a field development. Specific attention has been paid to a software development to implement the approaches.Мета. Розробити новий підхід до проектування гірничого виробництва, який базується на моделях та методах теорії прийняття рішень. Методика. В роботі застосовано комплексний метод, який включає підходи теорії прийняття рішень. Для стратегічного планування діяльності запропоновано досліджувати сценарії розвитку виробництва, для визначення раціонального рівня виробництва – критерії прийняття рішень в умовах невизначеності, а також дерева прийняття рішень для поточного управління. Результати. Виявлено, що процес проектування гірничого виробництва має детермінований характер, який демонструє зміну “станів природи” залежно від прийнятих рішень. Суть проектування гірничого виробництва зводиться до послідовного зменшення невизначеності шляхом дослідження сценаріїв виробництва та виключення несприятливих альтернатив. Оперативне управління здійснюється шляхом побудови дерев рішень та оптимізації параметрів експлуатації. Представлення множин раціональних типів обладнання, сценаріїв розвитку подій та порівняння їх за критеріями прийняття рішень дозволяє визначити раціональний рівень видобутку виймальної дільниці і знизити витрати на придбання та обслуговування обладнання, при цьому враховуються обмежувальні фактори, які впливають на величину очікуваного видобутку. Послідовне порівняння альтернатив дозволяє встановити поле прийнятних рішень для різних сценаріїв розвитку виробництва. Наукова новизна. Для управління гірничим виробництвом запропоновано підходи теорії прийняття рішень, які включають застосування дерев рішень, критеріїв прийняття рішень та аналіз сценаріїв, котрі базуються на представленні технологічного процесу у вигляді мережевої моделі, в якій найкоротший маршрут відповідає оптимальному рішенню. Практична значимість. Розроблена система прийняття рішень, дозволяє оптимізувати параметри експлуатації, знизити собівартість видобутку, вибрати структуру технологічних зв’язків з заданим рівнем продуктивності. Описані в роботі підходи можуть бути використані як на стадії проектування очисного забою так і в процесі експлуатації родовища корисних копалин. Особливу увагу приділено розробці програмного забезпечення для впровадження описаних підходів у виробництво.Цель. Разработать новый подход к проектированию горного производства, который базируется на моделях и методах теории принятия решений. Методика. В работе использован комплексный метод, который включает подходы теории принятия решений. Для стратегического планирования деятельности предложено исследовать сценарии развития производства, для определения рационального уровня производства – критерии принятия решений в условиях неопределенности, а также деревья принятия решений для текущего управления. Результаты. Установлено, что процесс проектирования горного производства носит детерминированный характер, который отражает изменение “состояний природы” в зависимости от принятых решений. Суть проектирования сводится к последовательному уменьшению неопределенности путем исследования сценариев производства и исключения неблагоприятных альтернатив. Оперативное управление осуществляется посредством построения деревьев решений и оптимизации параметров эксплуатации. Представление множества рациональных типов оборудования, сценариев развития событий та сравнение их по критериям принятия решений позволяет определить рациональный уровень добычи очистного участка и снизить затраты на приобретение и обслуживание оборудования, при этом учитываются ограничивающие факторы, которые влияют на величину ожидаемой прибыли. Последовательное сравнение альтернатив позволяет установить поле приемлемых решений для разных сценариев развития производства. Научная новизна. Для управления горным производством предложены подходы теории принятия решений, которые включают применения деревьев, критериев принятия решений и анализ сценариев, основанных на представлении технологического процесса в виде сетевой модели, где кратчайший маршрут соответствует оптимальному решению. Практическая значимость. Разработана система поддержки принятия решений, которая позволит оптимизировать параметры эксплуатации, снизить себестоимость добычи, выбрать структуру технологических взаимосвязей с заданным уровнем производительности. Описанные в работе подходы могут быть использованы как на стадии проектирования очистного забоя, так и в процессе эксплуатации месторождения полезных ископаемых. Особое внимание уделено разработке программного обеспечения для внедрения описанных подходов в горное дело.The study has been carried out within the framework of research project of the National Academy Sciences of Ukraine for young scientists “Resource-saving techniques to support mine workings under the complex hydrogeological conditions”; Agreement #29-04/06-2019; official registration #0119U102370

FARM-AGRIBUSINESS LINKAGES IN SOUTH AFRICA: EMPOWERING DISADVANTAGED COMMUNITIES THROUGH LINKS WITH AGRIBUSINESS

Agribusiness, Community/Rural/Urban Development,

Optimizing the Managerial Decision in Energetic Industry

Making a decision is a complex process which must be based upon a method that is able to establish the optimum criteria in choosing an alternative, in evaluating the main effects of implementing the decision which was taken and in estimating the risks involved. The optimizing methods and techniques fall into several groups. Thus, judging by the number of criteria that was taken into consideration when making decisions, the optimization methods and techniques can be identified as uni-criterial decisions and multi-criterial decisions; considering the objective condition state which affects the problem that needs decisional solution, there can be decisional methods and techniques used in optimizing decisions in conditions of certainty, decisional methods and techniques used in optimizing decisions in conditions of uncertainty and decisional methods and techniques used in optimizing decisions in risky conditions. The continuous improvement of the decisional subsystem - an important component of the firm’s management - represents a necessity under the circumstances that the latest decades reveal a development of the decisional elements, both in the theoretic-methodological field and in the application field. The decisional methods and techniques must be found in the managers’ decisional processes at different hierarchical levels (individual managers or group managers), so that a high scientific materialization level of the methods should be ensured.decision; variant; optimizing methods and techniques; decisional tree; certainty; uncertainty; risk

Irrigation externalities: pricing and charges

Irrigation externalities: pricing and charges by Gavan Dwyer, Robert Douglas, Deb Peterson, Jo Chong and Kate Maddern was released on 14 March 2006. The paper discusses the nature and causes of environmental change related to rural water use, and provides a taxonomy of the many diverse types. It also examines the issues surrounding possible charges on water use for water related externalities. There have been few attempts by water utilities to incorporate externalities into full cost pricing of irrigation water. The aim of this Staff Working Paper was to: examine the extent to which charges imposed by irrigation water utilities could address externalities from irrigation water supply and use; and to develop a framework to identify and characterise changes in environmental conditions from the supply and use of irrigation water that may lead to environmental externalities. The authors found that many factors influence the extent to which charging for water would change water use. These include the volume of water available to irrigators, the extent to which trade can occur, the size of the charge or tax, the price responsiveness for irrigation water and the existing mechanisms to address externalities. A tax on water use may increase economic efficiency where external costs are related only to the level of water use. However, such a tax is an unsuitable instrument if the Government's policy objective is to reduce environmental damage to a predetermined level or to raise a target level of revenue to address the externalities. The views expressed in this paper are those of the staff involved and do not necessarily reflect those of the Productivity Commission.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Research on the design of adaptive control systems, volume 1 Final report

Adaptive control systems - combined optimization and adaptive control, analysis-synthesis and passive adaptive systems, learning systems, and measurement adaptive system

Reference Models and Incentive Regulation of Electricity Distribution Networks: An Evaluation of Sweden’s Network Performance Assessment Model (NPAM)

The world-wide electricity sector reforms have led to a search for alternative and innovative approaches to regulation to promote efficiency improvement in the natural monopoly electricity networks. A number of countries have used incentive regulation models based on efficiency benchmarking of the electricity network utilities. While most regulators have opted adopted parametric and non-parametric frontier-based methods of benchmarking some have used engineering designed ‘reference firm’ or ‘norm’ models for the purpose. This paper examines the incentive properties and other related aspects of the norm model NPAM used in regulation of distribution networks in Sweden and compares these with those of frontier-based benchmarking methods. We identify a number of important differences between the two approaches to regulation benchmarking that are not readily apparent and discuss their ramifications for the regulatory objectives and process

Final report: Workshop on: Integrating electric mobility systems with the grid infrastructure

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: This document is a report on the workshop entitled “Integrating Electric Mobility Systems with the Grid Infrastructure” which was held at Boston University on November 6-7 with the sponsorship of the Sloan Foundation. Its objective was to bring together researchers and technical leaders from academia, industry, and government in order to set a short and longterm research agenda regarding the future of mobility and the ability of electric utilities to meet the needs of a highway transportation system powered primarily by electricity. The report is a summary of their insights based on workshop presentations and discussions. The list of participants and detailed Workshop program are provided in Appendices 1 and 2. Public and private decisions made in the coming decade will direct profound changes in the way people and goods are moved and the ability of clean energy sources – primarily delivered in the form of electricity – to power these new systems. Decisions need to be made quickly because of rapid advances in technology, and the growing recognition that meeting climate goals requires rapid and dramatic action. The blunt fact is, however, that the pace of innovation, and the range of business models that can be built around these innovations, has grown at a rate that has outstripped our ability to clearly understand the choices that must be made or estimate the consequences of these choices. The group of people assembled for this Workshop are uniquely qualified to understand the options that are opening both in the future of mobility and the ability of electric utilities to meet the needs of a highway transportation system powered primarily by electricity. They were asked both to explain what is known about the choices we face and to define the research issues most urgently needed to help public and private decision-makers choose wisely. This report is a summary of their insights based on workshop presentations and discussions. New communication and data analysis tools have profoundly changed the definition of what is technologically possible. Cell phones have put powerful computers, communication devices, and position locators into the pockets and purses of most Americans making it possible for Uber, Lyft and other Transportation Network Companies to deliver on-demand mobility services. But these technologies, as well as technologies for pricing access to congested roads, also open many other possibilities for shared mobility services – both public and private – that could cut costs and travel time by reducing congestion. Options would be greatly expanded if fully autonomous vehicles become available. These new business models would also affect options for charging electric vehicles. It is unclear, however, how to optimize charging (minimizing congestion on the electric grid) without increasing congestion on the roads or creating significant problems for the power system that supports such charging capacity. With so much in flux, many uncertainties cloud our vision of the future. The way new mobility services will reshape the number, length of trips, and the choice of electric vehicle charging systems and constraints on charging, and many other important behavioral issues are critical to this future but remain largely unknown. The challenge at hand is to define plausible future structures of electric grids and mobility systems, and anticipate the direct and indirect impacts of the changes involved. These insights can provide tools essential for effective private ... [TRUNCATED]Workshop funded by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Travel Demand Growth: Research on Longer-Term Issues. The Potential Contribution of Trip Planning Systems

INTRODUCTION 1.1 The growth in demand for travel Over the 20 years hm 1965, National Travel Survey (NTS) data shows a 61% growth in total person - km of travel. More detailed analysis suggests that this is made up roughly as follows:- due to increased population 4% due to more journeys 22% due to longer journeys 35% This implies that around 60% of the growth in travel has been due to people travelling further, rather than making more journeys. It is interesting to note, too, that the same phenomenon occurs even in the most congested areas. Between 1975 and 1985, NTS shows an 11% growth in person -km by London residents, at a time when population fell by 5%. In this case, the growth is made up roughly as follows:- due to lost population -5% due to more journeys 4% due to longer journeys 12% It is of course difficult to estimate the extent to which future growth in travel will be generated by longer journeys. The NRTF, which predicts a growth in car-km of between 120% and 180% between 1985 and 2025, is not based on a procedure which enables the effects of journey making and journey length to be separated. However, it is worth noting that if the same pattern were to exist at a national level in future, the predicted growth in car travel due to longer journeys could be equivalent to between 75% and 100% of today's car travel. It seems appropriate to ask whether it is a wise use of scarce resources to provide the infrastructure and energy needed to enable people to carry out their activities further from home. (Continues...

Integrated Transport Strategies: A New Initiaitve, or a Return to the 1960’s?

A recurring theme in the debate on urban transport policy in the last few years has been the appropriateness of developing Integrated Transport Strategies as a basis for identifying solutions to current and future urban transport problems. Their proponents, including a growing number of local authorities, see them as a means of ensuring that each element of transport policy complements the others. Those who argue against them, and particularly the Department of Transport, have likened them to the gramd and unattainable, blueprints produced by 1960s land use - transport studies. This paper draws on experience with such studies in London, Birmingham and Edinburgh to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the approach now being adopted, to suggest ways in which it might be further developed, and to identify, in the light of experience to date, those elements of policy which might most effectively contribute to the solution of transport problems