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    Parametric Model Discrimination for Heavily Censored Survival Data

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    νœ΄λŒ€μš© μ „μžκΈ°κΈ°μ˜ ν’ˆμ§ˆλ³΄μ¦ λ‚¨μš©λ°©μ§€μš© μž₯μΉ˜μ— λŒ€ν•œ μ„±λŠ₯ μ €ν•˜ λͺ¨λΈ 개발

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    ν•™μœ„λ…Όλ¬Έ (석사)-- μ„œμšΈλŒ€ν•™κ΅ λŒ€ν•™μ› : 기계항곡곡학뢀, 2013. 8. μœ€λ³‘λ™.졜근 μŠ€λ§ˆνŠΈν°μ΄λ‚˜ νƒœλΈ”λ¦Ώ PC와 같은 νœ΄λŒ€μš© μ „μžκΈ°κΈ°κ°€ λ³΄νŽΈν™” λ˜λ©΄μ„œ 그에 λŒ€ν•œ μ‹œμž₯규λͺ¨κ°€ κΎΈμ€€νžˆ μ„±μž₯ν•˜κ³  μžˆλ‹€. 이에 따라 μ „μžμ œν’ˆμ˜ ν’ˆμ§ˆλ³΄μ¦ μ„œλΉ„μŠ€μ— λŒ€ν•œ 관심이 높아지고 μžˆλŠ”λ°, 이와 κ΄€λ ¨ν•˜μ—¬ ν’ˆμ§ˆλ³΄μ¦ λ‚¨μš©μ„ μœ„ν•΄ μ„€μΉ˜λœ 침수라벨의 μ„±λŠ₯에 λŒ€ν•œ λ…Όλž€μ΄ ν™•λŒ€λ˜κ³  μžˆλ‹€. μΉ¨μˆ˜λΌλ²¨μ€ μ „μžμ œν’ˆ μΆœμ‹œ μ „ κΈ°κΈ° 내뢀에 λΆ€μ°©λ˜λ©° λ¬Όμ΄λ‚˜ 앑체에 λ‹ΏμœΌλ©΄ λ³€μƒ‰λ˜λŠ” κΈ°λŠ₯을 가지고 있으며, μ†ŒλΉ„μžκ°€ μ œν’ˆ μ‚¬μš© 쀑에 κΈ°κΈ°λ₯Ό 물에 λΉ λœ¨λ ΈλŠ”μ§€ νŒλ‹¨ν•  수 μžˆλŠ” 기쀀이 되고 μžˆλ‹€. λ³€μƒ‰λœ μΉ¨μˆ˜λΌλ²¨μ„ 가지고 μžˆλŠ” μ œν’ˆμ€ μ†ŒλΉ„μžμ˜ κ³Όμ‹€λ‘œ μΈν•œ νŒŒμ† κ°€λŠ₯성이 크닀고 νŒλ‹¨λ˜μ–΄ μΆ”ν›„ ν’ˆμ§ˆλ³΄μ¦ μ„œλΉ„μŠ€μ˜ 제곡이 λ˜μ§€ μ•ŠλŠ”λ‹€. ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ μ΅œκ·ΌκΉŒμ§€ ν’ˆμ§ˆλ³΄μ¦ μ„œλΉ„μŠ€λ₯Ό 받지 λͺ»ν•œ λ‹€μˆ˜μ˜ μ†ŒλΉ„μžμ—κ²Œμ„œ 침수라벨의 μ˜€μž‘λ™μ— λŒ€ν•œ μ£Όμž₯이 λŠμž„μ—†μ΄ μ œμ‹œλ˜λ©΄μ„œ 이에 λŒ€ν•œ 집단 μ†Œμ†‘μœΌλ‘œ λ¬Έμ œκ°€ ν™•μ‚°λ˜κ³  μžˆλ‹€. μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ 문제의 해결을 μœ„ν•΄μ„œλŠ” λ‹€μ–‘ν•œ ν™˜κ²½μ—μ„œ 침수라벨의 μ„±λŠ₯을 λ³΄μ΄λŠ” μ •λŸ‰μ μΈ κΈ°μ€€κ³Ό μ˜¬λ°”λ₯Έ 침수라벨의 μ„€μΉ˜ 방법에 λŒ€ν•œ 곡학적 κ·Όκ±°κ°€ ν•„μš”ν•˜λ‹€. 이에 λ³Έ λ…Όλ¬Έμ—μ„œλŠ” 침수라벨의 κ°€μ†μˆ˜λͺ…μ‹œν—˜μ„ 톡해 μ„±λŠ₯μ €ν•˜ λͺ¨λΈμ„ μ œμ•ˆν•˜μ—¬ λ‹€μ–‘ν•œ ν™˜κ²½ λ‚΄ 침수라벨의 μ„±λŠ₯을 μ •λŸ‰ν™”ν•˜μ˜€λ‹€. κ°€μ†μˆ˜λͺ…μ‹œν—˜μ˜ κ²°κ³Ό λΆ„μ„μ—λŠ” RGB 색상 λͺ¨λΈμ„ μ΄μš©ν•œ 이미지 ν”„λ‘œμ„Έμ‹± 기법을 λ„μž…ν•˜μ˜€λ‹€. λ‹€μ–‘ν•œ ν™˜κ²½μ—μ„œ μˆ˜ν–‰λœ κ°€μ†μˆ˜λͺ…μ‹œν—˜μ˜ κ²°κ³Όλ‘œλΆ€ν„° 침수라벨의 μ„±λŠ₯을 μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•˜λŠ” λͺ¨λΈ κ΅¬μΆ•μ—λŠ” Arrhenius Relationship을 λ„μž…ν•˜μ—¬ μ‹€μ œ μ œν’ˆ 이용 ν™˜κ²½μ—μ„œμ˜ 침수라벨의 μ„±λŠ₯을 μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•˜μ˜€λ‹€. λ˜ν•œ μ‹€μ œ μŠ€λ§ˆνŠΈν°μ„ μ΄μš©ν•˜μ—¬ λͺ¨λΈ 검증 μ‹œν—˜μ„ μˆ˜ν–‰ν•¨μœΌλ‘œμ¨ μ œμ•ˆλœ μ„±λŠ₯μ €ν•˜ λͺ¨λΈμ˜ μœ νš¨μ„±μ„ λ°ν˜”μœΌλ©°, 침수라벨의 μ˜¬λ°”λ₯Έ μ„€μΉ˜ 기쀀에 λŒ€ν•œ 곡학적 μ˜κ²¬μ„ λ„μΆœν•˜μ˜€λ‹€.The market for portable electronics (i.e. smartphones, tablet PCs, laptops) has been expanding gradually and customers expectations for high reliability cause various controversial issues. Industry use of a liquid damage indicator (LDI) as a method for warranty abuse is one of the problems receiving customers attention. As the price for electronic devices has increased, customers have become more concerned about warranty policies of electronic device manufacturers. Some customers have even abused the warranty service and made unfair profit. As a result, electronic device manufacturers have decided not to provide warranty service for damage resulting from the fault of customers, especially as it relates to liquid-damaged products. Electronic device manufacturers have increasingly employed LDIs in products to detect if a device has been damaged by liquid. An LDI is a sticker which consists of multiple layers. The LDI changes in color from white to red when it comes in contact with liquids. When a customer takes his/her device to a service center, the staff will first check the LDIs color in the device and will refuse to provide warranty service for any device with red LDIs. However, existing LDIs exhibit inconsistencies in characteristics which can lead to improper warranty denials. Many websites and a few broadcast media sources have presented examples of LDIs showing a faulty alarm based on environmental conditions. At least one major electronics manufacturer, Apple Inc., has been sued over the LDIs poor performance and therefore a possibly unreasonable warranty policy. However, no quantified engineering data existed for objective evaluation of the LDIs performance. Therefore, for the benefit of the public and the protection of electronics manufacturers, a need arose to develop a method that quantifies LDI performance. In this study, a performance degradation model for an LDI has been developed and validated. The model was developed with following three steps1) accelerated life testing of LDIs on two substrates, 2) performance degradation model development based on the test results, and 3) model validation with environmental cyclic test of LDIs attached in iPhone 3 handsets.Chapter 1. Introduction 1 Chapter 2. Review of Warranty Abuse Detection Methods in Electronic Devices 3 Chapter 3. Overview of Accelerated Life Tests 6 3.1 Stress Acceleration 7 3.1.1 Acceleration method 7 3.1.2 Stress applying method 7 3.2 Types of Stress and Related Stress-Life Models 9 3.2.1 Types of Stress and Related Stress-Life Model 9 3.2.2 Humidity for stress acceleration 10 3.2.3 Non-thermal parameters for stress acceleration 11 3.3 Procedures for Accelerated Life Tests 11 3.3.1 Major failure mechanism 11 3.3.2 Condition settings 12 3.3.3 Data analysis 13 Chapter 4. Pre-tests for Accelerated Life Tests of Liquid Damage Indicators 14 4.1 Main Stress Factor 14 4.1.1 High humidity resistive test 14 4.1.2 Temperature cyclic test 15 4.2 Condition Setting 16 4.2.1 Temperature cyclic test under high and low temperature ranges 16 4.2.2 Temperature stabilization test 18 Chapter 5. Accelerated Life Tests of Liquid Damage Indicators 21 5.1 Procedure of the Accelerated Life Tests 21 5.1.1 Steps for the accelerated life tests 21 5.1.2 Quantification of performance degradation 23 Chapter 6. Development of a Performance Degradation Model 30 6.1 Arrhenius Relationship 30 6.2 Performance Degradation Model for LDI 31 Chapter 7. Validation Tests for the Performance Degradation Model 34 Chapter 8. Conclusion and Discussion 36 Bibliography 38 κ΅­λ¬Έ 초둝 42Maste
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