Models Needed to Assist in the Development of a National Fiber Supply Strategy for the 21st Century: Report of a Workshop

This discussion paper reports on a Workshop on Wood Fiber Supply Modeling held October 3-4, 1996 in Washington, DC. The purpose of this discussion paper is to provide an overview of some of the modeling work being done related to timber supply modeling and some of the issues related to the more useful application of wood fiber supply and projections models. This paper includes brief presentations of three commonly used long-term timber projections and forecasting models: the Timber Assessment Market Model (TAMM) of the Forest Service; the Cintrafor Global Trade Model (CGTM) of the University of Washington; and the Timber Supply Model (TSM) of Resources for the Future. Also, issues related to the useful of the models are addressed as well as a discussion of some applications of other timber or fiber projection models. The usefulness of the models are addressed from both a technical perspective and also from the perspective of their usefulness to various model users.

Blending modelling in a process manufacturing system

integer programming;manufacturing;blending;production

Explaining changes in external funds (Part one: Theory)

Capital Structure;finance

An optimization model for multi-biomass tri-generation energy supply

In this paper, a decision support system (DSS) for multi-biomass energy conversion applications is presented. The system in question aims at supporting an investor by thoroughly assessing an investment in locally existing multi-biomass exploitation for tri-generation applications (electricity, heating and cooling), in a given area. The approach followed combines use of holistic modelling of the system, including the multi-biomass supply chain, the energy conversion facility and the district heating and cooling network, with optimization of the major investment-related variables to maximize the financial yield of the investment. The consideration of multi-biomass supply chain presents significant potential for cost reduction, by allowing spreading of capital costs and reducing warehousing requirements, especially when seasonal biomass types are concerned. The investment variables concern the location of the bioenergy exploitation facility and its sizing, as well as the types of biomass to be procured, the respective quantities and the maximum collection distance for each type. A hybrid optimization method is employed to overcome the inherent limitations of every single method. The system is demand-driven, meaning that its primary aim is to fully satisfy the energy demand of the customers. Therefore, the model is a practical tool in the hands of an investor to assess and optimize in financial terms an investment aiming at covering real energy demand. optimization is performed taking into account various technical, regulatory, social and logical constraints. The model characteristics and advantages are highlighted through a case study applied to a municipality of Thessaly, Greece. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

The theory of international business: the role of economic models

This paper reviews the scope for economic modelling in international business studies. It argues for multi-level theory based on classic internalisation theory. It present a systems approach that encompasses both firm-level and industry-level analysis

Optimization of polling systems with Bernoulli schedules

Optimization;Polling Systems;Queueing Theory;operations research

Production planning mechanisms in demand-driven wood remanufacturing industry

L'objectif principal de cette thèse est d'étudier le problème de planification de la production dans le contexte d'une demande incertaine, d’un niveau de service variable et d’approvisionnements incontrôlables dans une usine de seconde transformation du bois. Les activités de planification et de contrôle de production sont des tâches intrinsèquement complexes et difficiles pour les entreprises de seconde transformation du bois. La complexité vient de certaines caractéristiques intrinsèques de cette industrie, comme la co-production, les procédés alternatifs divergents, les systèmes de production sur commande (make-to-order), des temps de setup variables et une offre incontrôlable. La première partie de cette thèse propose une plate-forme d'optimisation/simulation permettant de prendre des décisions concernant le choix d'une politique de planification de la production, pour traiter rapidement les demandes incertaines, tout en tenant compte des caractéristiques complexes de l'industrie de la seconde transformation du bois. À cet effet, une stratégie de re-planification périodique basée sur un horizon roulant est utilisée et validée par un modèle de simulation utilisant des données réelles provenant d'un partenaire industriel. Dans la deuxième partie de cette thèse, une méthode de gestion des stocks de sécurité dynamique est proposée afin de mieux gérer le niveau de service, qui est contraint par une capacité de production limitée et à la complexité de la gestion des temps de mise en course. Nous avons ainsi développé une approche de re-planification périodique à deux phases, dans laquelle des capacités non-utilisées (dans la première phase) sont attribuées (dans la seconde phase) afin de produire certains produits jugés importants, augmentant ainsi la capacité du système à atteindre le niveau de stock de sécurité. Enfin, dans la troisième partie de la thèse, nous étudions l’impact d’un approvisionnement incontrôlable sur la planification de la production. Différents scénarios d'approvisionnement servent à identifier les seuils critiques dans les variations de l’offre. Le cadre proposé permet aux gestionnaires de comprendre l'impact de politiques d'approvisionnement proposées pour faire face aux incertitudes. Les résultats obtenus à travers les études de cas considérés montrent que les nouvelles approches proposées dans cette thèse constituent des outils pratiques et efficaces pour la planification de production du bois.The main objective of this thesis is to investigate the production planning problem in the context of uncertain demand, variable service level, and uncontrollable supply in a wood remanufacturing mill. Production planning and control activities are complex and represent difficult tasks for wood remanufacturers. The complexity comes from inherent characteristics of the industry such as divergent co-production, alternative processes, make-to-order, short customer lead times, variable setup time, and uncontrollable supply. The first part of this thesis proposes an optimization/simulation platform to make decisions about the selection of a production planning policy to deal swiftly with uncertain demands, under the complex characteristics of the wood remanufacturing industry. For this purpose, a periodic re-planning strategy based on a rolling horizon was used and validated through a simulation model using real data from an industrial partner. The computational results highlighted the significance of using the re-planning model as a practical tool for production planning under unstable demands. In the second part, a dynamic safety stock method was proposed to better manage service level, which was threatened by issues related to limited production capacity and the complexity of setup time. We developed a two-phase periodic re-planning approach whereby idle capacities were allocated to produce more important products thus increasing the realization of safety stock level. Numerical results indicated that the solution of the two-phase method was superior to the initial method in terms of backorder level as well as inventory level. Finally, we studied the impact of uncontrollable supply on demand-driven wood remanufacturing production planning through an optimization and simulation framework. Different supply scenarios were used to identify the safety threshold of supply changes. The proposed framework provided managers with a novel advanced planning approach that allowed understanding the impact of supply policies to deal with uncertainties. In general, the wood products industry offers a rich environment for dealing with uncertainties for which the literature fails to provide efficient solutions. Regarding the results that were obtained through the case studies, we believe that approaches proposed in this thesis can be considered as novel and practical tools for wood remanufacturing production planning