How does financial theory apply to catastrophe-linked derivatives? En empirical test of several princing models

The paper focuses on the PCS Catastrophe Insurance Option Contracts and empirically tests the degree of agreement between their real quotes and the standard fmancial theory. The highest possible precision is incorporated since the real quotes are perfectly synchronized and the bid-ask spread is always considered. A static setting is assumed and the main topics of arbitrage, hedging and portfolio choice are involved in the analysis. Three significant conclusions are reached. First, the catastrophe derivatives may be very often priced by arbitrage methods, and the paper provides some examples of practical strategies that were available in the market. Second, hedging arguments also yield adequate criteria to price the derivatives and some real examples are provided as well. Third, in a variance aversion context many agents could be interested in selling derivatives to invest the money in stocks and bonds. These strategies show a suitable level in the variance for any desired expected return. Furthermore, the methodology here applied seems to be quite general and may be useful to price other derivative securities. Simple assumptions on the underlying asset behavior are the only required conditions

Micro-credit, risk coping and incidence of rural-to-urban migration

The focus of this paper is on the rural poor of south Asia and their struggle to cope with the seasonal risk of unemployment and the ensuing income risks. In the absence of formal credit or insurance markets the rural poor typically resort to, among other options, the following informal strategies to cope with seasonal income risks: (i) seasonal rural-to-urban migration, and (ii) mutual (ex-post) transfers between families of friends and relatives. Access to credit through a microfinance institution could also provide a competing source of insurance. The question raised in this paper is how the access to credit may affect the more traditional/time honoured means of risk coping, such as seasonal migration. Given that credit, i.e., a credit-financed activity, is potentially a substitute for seasonal migration, it is reasonable to argue that easy access to credit (or high return on credit) will lower the incidence of migration. However, there also exists a potential complementarity between the two activities (if implemented jointly) in terms of gains due to diversification of income risks. That is, given that income from migration is not typically subject to the same shocks as income generated by a credit-financed activity, a joint adoption of both activities creates opportunities for diversification of risk in the family incomes portfolio. If the diversification gains are large enough then the adoption of both activities jointly will be preferred to adopting either of the activities individually. In that event, introduction of microfinance in rural societies may result in raising the incidence of migration. The joint adoption case for rural households is modelled using a choice theoretic framework, and exact conditions are derived for when joint adoption is preferable to adoption of a single project. The model of joint adoption is estimated by applying a Bivariate Probit regression model on a single cross-section of household survey data from rural Bangladesh. Our preliminary results show that indeed the probability of participation in migration by household members is positively related to the probability of the household being a credit recipient.Development, South Asia, Poverty, Microfinance, Rural labour markets, Rural-to-urban migration, Risk-coping strategies

Portfolio regulation of life insurance companies and pension funds

This paper examines the rationale, nature and financial consequences of two alternative approaches to portfolio regulations for the long-term institutional investor sectors life insurance and pension funds. These approaches are, respectively, prudent person rules and quantitative portfolio restrictions. The argument draws on the financial-economics of investment, the differing characteristics of institutions’ liabilities, and the overall case for regulation of financial institutions. Among the conclusions are: · regulation of life insurance and pensions need not be identical; · prudent person rules are superior to quantitative restrictions for pension funds except in certain specific circumstances (which may arise notably in emerging market economies), and; · although in general restrictions may be less damaging for life insurance than for pension funds, prudent person rules may nevertheless be desirable in certain cases also for this sector, particularly in competitive life sectors in advanced countries, and for pension contracts offered by life insurance companies. These results have implications inter alia for an appropriate strategy of liberalisation. 1 The author is Professor of Economics and Finance, Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB3 4PH, United Kingdom (e-mail ‘[email protected]’, website: ‘www.geocities.com/e_philip_davis’). He is also a Visiting Fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, an Associate Member of the Financial Markets Group at LSE, Associate Fellow of the Royal Institute of International Affairs and Research Fellow of the Pensions Institute at Birkbeck College, London. Work on this topic was commissioned by the OECD. Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the XI ASSAL Conference on Insurance Regulation and Supervision in Latin America, Oaxaca, Mexico, 4-8 September 2000, and at the OECD Insurance Committee on 30 November 2000. The author thanks participants at the conference and A Laboul for helpful comments. Views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the institutions to which he is affiliated, nor those of the OECD. This paper draws on Davis and Steil (2000)

Micro-credit, risk coping and the incidence of rural-to-urban migration

The focus of this paper is on the rural poor of south Asia and their struggle to cope with the seasonal risk of unemployment and the ensuing income risks. In the absence of formal credit or insurance markets the rural poor typically resort to, among other options, the following informal strategies to cope with seasonal income risks: (i) seasonal rural-to-urban migration, and (ii) mutual (ex-post) transfers between families of friends and relatives. Access to credit through a microfinance institution could also provide a competing source of insurance. The question raised in this paper is how the access to credit may affect the more traditional/time honoured means of risk coping, such as seasonal migration. Given that credit, i.e., a creditfinanced activity, is potentially a substitute for seasonal migration, it is reasonable to argue that easy access to credit (or high return on credit) will lower the incidence of migration. However, there also exists a potential complementarity between the two activities (if implemented jointly) in terms of gains due to diversification of income risks. That is, given that income from migration is not typically subject to the same shocks as income generated by a credit-financed activity, a joint adoption of both activities creates opportunities for diversification of risk in the family incomes portfolio. If the diversification gains are large enough then the adoption of both activities jointly will be preferred to adopting either of the activities individually. In that event, introduction of microfinance in rural societies may result in raising the incidence of migration. The joint adoption case for rural households is modelled using a choice theoretic framework, and exact conditions are derived for when joint adoption is preferable to adoption of a single project. The model of joint adoption is estimated by applying a Bivariate Probit regression model on a single cross-section of household survey data from rural Bangladesh. Our preliminary results show that indeed the probability of participation in migration by household members is positively related to the probability of the household being a credit recipient. --Development,South Asia,Poverty,Microfinance,Rural labour markets,Rural-to-urban migration,Risk-coping strategies

Optimization of factorial portfolio of trade enterprises in the conditions of the non-payment crisis

The economic mechanism for factoring management of trade enterprises was improved by applying a tool for refinancing receivables involving third parties, which will contribute to the effective management of fundraising processes from the standpoint of the income approach. The instruments for the implementation of the economic mechanism of factoring management of commercial enterprises, consisting of five blocks were improved (analysis of commercial enterprise debtors’ solvency in order to transfer them to factoring services; analysis of accounts receivable and assessment of its real value; planning of cash flows from factoring operations; factoring implementation assessment; monitoring and control of the repayment of receivables in the process of factoring services), that allows substantiating practical recommendations for improving the level of factoring management. Based on the concept of a portfolio of investments, a factoring model was built to optimize the debtors of the enterprise

Fuzzy Logic and Its Uses in Finance: A Systematic Review Exploring Its Potential to Deal with Banking Crises

The major success of fuzzy logic in the field of remote control opened the door to its application in many other fields, including finance. However, there has not been an updated and comprehensive literature review on the uses of fuzzy logic in the financial field. For that reason, this study attempts to critically examine fuzzy logic as an effective, useful method to be applied to financial research and, particularly, to the management of banking crises. The data sources were Web of Science and Scopus, followed by an assessment of the records according to pre-established criteria and an arrangement of the information in two main axes: financial markets and corporate finance. A major finding of this analysis is that fuzzy logic has not yet been used to address banking crises or as an alternative to ensure the resolvability of banks while minimizing the impact on the real economy. Therefore, we consider this article relevant for supervisory and regulatory bodies, as well as for banks and academic researchers, since it opens the door to several new research axes on banking crisis analyses using artificial intelligence techniques

Bank Panics and the Endogeneity of Central Banking

Central banking is intimately related to liquidity provision to banks during times of crisis, the lender-of-last-resort function. This activity arose endogenously in certain banking systems. Depositors lack full information about the value of bank assets so that during macroeconomic downturns they monitor their banks by withdrawing in a banking panic. The likelihood of panics depends on the industrial organization of the banking system. Banking systems with many small, undiversified banks, are prone to panics and failures, unlike systems with a few big banks that are heavily branched and well diversified. Systems of many small banks are more efficient if the banks form coalitions during times of crisis. We provide conditions under which the industrial organization of banking leads to incentive compatible state contingent bank coalition formation. Such coalitions issue money that is a kind of deposit insurance and examine and supervise banks. Bank coalitions of small banks, however, cannot replicate the efficiency of a system of big banks.

Do Stockholders Share Risk More Effectively Than Non- stockholders?

This paper analyzes the extent of risk-sharing among stockholders and among nonstockholders. Wealthy households play a crucial role in many economic problems due to the substantial concentration of asset holdings in the U.S. data. Hence, to evaluate the empirical importance of market incompleteness, it is essential to determine if idiosyncratic shocks are important for the wealthy, who have access to better insurance opportunities, but also face different risks, than the average household. We study a model where each period households decide whether to participate in the stock market by paying a fixed cost. Due to this endogenous entry decision, the testable implications of perfect risk- sharing take the form of a sample selection model, which we estimate and test using a semi-parametric GMM estimator proposed by Kyriazidou (2001). Using data from PSID we strongly reject perfect risk-sharing among stockholders, but perhaps surprisingly, do not find evidence against it among non-stockholders. These results appear to be robust to several extensions we considered. These findings indicate that market incompleteness may be more important for the wealthy, and suggest further focus on risk factors that primarily affect this group, such as entrepreneurial income risk.Perfect risk-sharing, incomplete markets, semiparametric estimation, Generalized Method of Moments, limited stock market participation.

Destructive Effects of Constructive Ambiguity in Risky Times

Unclear bailout policy, underinvestment and calls for bankers? responsibility are some of the observations from the recent financial crisis. The paper explains underinvestment as an inefficient equilibrium. Under ambiguous bailout policy agents suffer from a lack of information with regards to the insolvency resolution methods. Beliefs of bankers regarding whether an insolvent bank is liquidated, may differ from those of depositors even if bankers and depositors possess absolutely symmetric information about the economy. It is shown that such an asymmetry in beliefs results in underinvestment if the investment climate is characterized by high aggregate risk. The paper suggests policy implications aimed at the reduction of anxiety of agents and at aligning their beliefs to restore efficiency