Data analytics for stochastic control and prognostics in cyber-physical systems

In this dissertation, several novel cyber fault diagnosis and prognosis and defense methodologies for cyber-physical systems have been proposed. First, a novel routing scheme for wireless mesh network is proposed. An effective capacity estimation for P2P and E2E path is designed to guarantee the vital transmission safety. This scheme can ensure a high quality of service (QoS) under imperfect network condition, even cyber attacks. Then, the imperfection, uncertainties, and dynamics in the cyberspace are considered both in system model and controller design. A PDF identifier is proposed to capture the time-varying delays and its distribution. With the modification of traditional stochastic optimal control using PDF of delays, the assumption of full knowledge of network imperfection in priori is relaxed. This proposed controller is considered a novel resilience control strategy for cyber fault diagnosis and prognosis. After that, we turn to the development of a general framework for cyber fault diagnosis and prognosis schemes for CPSs wherein the cyberspace performance affect the physical system and vice versa. A novel cyber fault diagnosis scheme is proposed. It is capable of detecting cyber fault by monitoring the probability of delays. Also, the isolation of cyber and physical system fault is achieved with cooperating with the traditional observer based physical system fault detection. Next, a novel cyber fault prognosis scheme, which can detect and estimate cyber fault and its negative effects on system performance ahead of time, is proposed. Moreover, soft and hard cyber faults are isolated depending on whether potential threats on system stability is predicted. Finally, one-class SVM is employed to classify healthy and erroneous delays. Then, another cyber fault prognosis based on OCSVM is proposed --Abstract, page iv

Cyber Defense Remediation in Energy Delivery Systems

The integration of Information Technology (IT) and Operational Technology (OT) in Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) has resulted in increased efficiency and facilitated real-time information acquisition, processing, and decision making. However, the increase in automation technology and the use of the internet for connecting, remote controlling, and supervising systems and facilities has also increased the likelihood of cybersecurity threats that can impact safety of humans and property. There is a need to assess cybersecurity risks in the power grid, nuclear plants, chemical factories, etc. to gain insight into the likelihood of safety hazards. Quantitative cybersecurity risk assessment will lead to informed cyber defense remediation and will ensure the presence of a mitigation plan to prevent safety hazards. In this dissertation, using Energy Delivery Systems (EDS) as a use case to contextualize a CPS, we address key research challenges in managing cyber risk for cyber defense remediation. First, we developed a platform for modeling and analyzing the effect of cyber threats and random system faults on EDS\u27s safety that could lead to catastrophic damages. We developed a data-driven attack graph and fault graph-based model to characterize the exploitability and impact of threats in EDS. We created an operational impact assessment to quantify the damages. Finally, we developed a strategic response decision capability that presents optimal mitigation actions and policies that balance the tradeoff between operational resilience (tactical risk) and strategic risk. Next, we addressed the challenge of management of tactical risk based on a prioritized cyber defense remediation plan. A prioritized cyber defense remediation plan is critical for effective risk management in EDS. Due to EDS\u27s complexity in terms of the heterogeneous nature of blending IT and OT and Industrial Control System (ICS), scale, and critical processes tasks, prioritized remediation should be applied gradually to protect critical assets. We proposed a methodology for prioritizing cyber risk remediation plans by detecting and evaluating critical EDS nodes\u27 paths. We conducted evaluation of critical nodes characteristics based on nodes\u27 architectural positions, measure of centrality based on nodes\u27 connectivity and frequency of network traffic, as well as the controlled amount of electrical power. The model also examines the relationship between cost models of budget allocation for removing vulnerabilities on critical nodes and their impact on gradual readiness. The proposed cost models were empirically validated in an existing network ICS test-bed computing nodes criticality. Two cost models were examined, and although varied, we concluded the lack of correlation between types of cost models to most damageable attack path and critical nodes readiness. Finally, we proposed a time-varying dynamical model for the cyber defense remediation in EDS. We utilize the stochastic evolutionary game model to simulate the dynamic adversary of cyber-attack-defense. We leveraged the Logit Quantal Response Dynamics (LQRD) model to quantify real-world players\u27 cognitive differences. We proposed the optimal decision making approach by calculating the stable evolutionary equilibrium and balancing defense costs and benefits. Case studies on EDS indicate that the proposed method can help the defender predict possible attack action, select the related optimal defense strategy over time, and gain the maximum defense payoffs. We also leveraged software-defined networking (SDN) in EDS for dynamical cyber defense remediation. We presented an approach to aid the selection security controls dynamically in an SDN-enabled EDS and achieve tradeoffs between providing security and Quality of Service (QoS). We modeled the security costs based on end-to-end packet delay and throughput. We proposed a non-dominated sorting based multi-objective optimization framework which can be implemented within an SDN controller to address the joint problem of optimizing between security and QoS parameters by alleviating time complexity at O(MN2). The M is the number of objective functions, and N is the population for each generation, respectively. We presented simulation results that illustrate how data availability and data integrity can be achieved while maintaining QoS constraints

Control and game-theoretic methods for secure cyber-physical-human systems

This work focuses on systems comprising tightly interconnected physical and digital components. Those, aptly named, cyber-physical systems will be the core of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Thus, cyber-physical systems will be called upon to interact with humans, either in a cooperative fashion, or as adversaries to malicious human agents that will seek to corrupt their operation. In this work, we will present methods that enable an autonomous system to operate safely among human agents and to gain an advantage in cyber-physical security scenarios by employing tools from control, game and learning theories. Our work revolves around three main axes: unpredictability-based defense, operation among agents with bounded rationality and verification of safety properties for autonomous systems. In taking advantage of the complex nature of cyber-physical systems, our unpredictability-based defense work will focus both on attacks on actuating and sensing components, which will be addressed via a novel switching-based Moving Target Defense framework, and on Denial-of-Service attacks on the underlying network via a zero-sum game exploiting redundant communication channels. Subsequently, we will take a more abstract view of complex system security by exploring the principles of bounded rationality. We will show how attackers of bounded rationality can coordinate in inducing erroneous decisions to a system while they remain stealthy. Methods of cognitive hierarchy will be employed for decision prediction, while closed form solutions of the optimization problem and the conditions of convergence to the Nash equilibrium will be investigated. The principles of bounded rationality will be brought to control systems via the use of policy iteration algorithms, enabling data-driven attack prediction in a more realistic fashion than what can be offered by game equilibrium solutions. The issue of intelligence in security scenarios will be further considered via concepts of learning manipulation through a proposed framework where bounded rationality is understood as a hierarchy in learning, rather than optimizing, capability. This viewpoint will allow us to propose methods of exploiting the learning process of an imperfect opponent in order to affect their cognitive state via the use of tools from optimal control theory. Finally, in the context of safety, we will explore verification and compositionality properties of linear systems that are designed to be added to a cascade network of similar systems. To obfuscate the need for knowledge of the system's dynamics, we will state decentralized conditions that guarantee a specific dissipativity properties for the system, which are shown to be solved by reinforcement learning techniques. Subsequently, we will propose a framework that employs a hierarchical solution of temporal logic specifications and reinforcement learning problems for optimal tracking.Ph.D

Multi-Layer Cyber-Physical Security and Resilience for Smart Grid

The smart grid is a large-scale complex system that integrates communication technologies with the physical layer operation of the energy systems. Security and resilience mechanisms by design are important to provide guarantee operations for the system. This chapter provides a layered perspective of the smart grid security and discusses game and decision theory as a tool to model the interactions among system components and the interaction between attackers and the system. We discuss game-theoretic applications and challenges in the design of cross-layer robust and resilient controller, secure network routing protocol at the data communication and networking layers, and the challenges of the information security at the management layer of the grid. The chapter will discuss the future directions of using game-theoretic tools in addressing multi-layer security issues in the smart grid.Comment: 16 page