Identification of general risk-management countermeasures for unsafe driving actions. Volume II: a review of selected literature. Final report

Notes: Report covers the period Sept 1977-Feb 1981. Contract amount $99,750National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/391/2/45773.0001.001.pd

Building a Bayesian decision support system for evaluating COVID-19 countermeasure strategies

Decision making in the face of a disaster requires the consideration of several complex factors. In such cases, Bayesian multi-criteria decision analysis provides a framework for decision making. In this paper, we present how to construct a multi-attribute decision support system for choosing between countermeasure strategies, such as lockdowns, designed to mitigate the effects of COVID-19. Such an analysis can evaluate both the short term and long term efficacy of various candidate countermeasures. The expected utility scores of a countermeasure strategy capture the expected impact of the policies on health outcomes and other measures of population well-being. The broad methodologies we use here have been established for some time. However, this application has many novel elements to it: the pervasive uncertainty of the science; the necessary dynamic shifts between regimes within each candidate suite of countermeasures; and the fast moving stochastic development of the underlying threat all present new challenges to this domain. Our methodology is illustrated by demonstrating in a simplified example how the efficacy of various strategies can be formally compared through balancing impacts of countermeasures, not only on the short term (e.g. COVID-19 deaths) but the medium to long term effects on the population (e.g. increased poverty)

Tradable SO-2-permits in the European Union: a practicable scheme for public utilities

In this paper, a practicable scheme of SO2-emission permits for European power producers is developed. Background is the second UN-ECE Sulphur Protocol from 1994 (Protocol of Oslo). After discussing some theoretical models of spatially differentiated permit schemes, evaluating the U.S. Acid Rain and RECLAIM Program, and considering the setting in the EU-15 countries, a scheme of locally undifferentiated emission permits is proposed which is distinguished by a high degree of both economic efficiency and market functioning. However, as our model simulations indicate, national deposition targets will be violated in all probability due to the scheme?s missing differentiation regarding the receptors. The risk of hot spots is addressed adequately by a differentiated bundle of countermeasures. The general economic impact of an EU-wide permit scheme is low, and, in terms of change in GDP, lower compared to a non-coordinated SO2 policy. The proposed mode of the initial permit allocation allows for early price signals and guarantees maximum static and dynamic efficiency. Balancing the interests of existing and new emitters, a long-term transition from the grandfathering to the free auction procedure is chosen. --

A decision framework for managing the risk of terrorist threats at rail stations interconnected with airports

This paper highlights a risk-based decision-making framework on a basis of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Its aim is to enable stakeholders of transport infrastructures to systematically and effectively allocate their limited resources and consequently improve resilience when facing the potential risk of a terrorist attack. The potential risk of a terrorist attack affects the inter-operation of transportation infrastructures including airports and rail stations, the regional economy, and imposes additional costs of security or any countermeasures. This novel framework is thus established in order to model the security system, to consider a multitude of threat scenarios, and to assess the decisions and choices taken by the aggressors during various stages of their attack. The framework has capability to identify the state of partial neutralization, which reveals the losses incurred when the terrorist could not reach the primary target. In this study, an underground railway station interconnected to an international airport has been used as a case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of this novel framework. By the rigorous assessment of potential losses during a variety of threat scenarios, four countermeasures that could minimise losses are proposed: screening of passengers by observation techniques (SPOT), a surveillance system, increase of the cargo screening rate, and blast-resistant cargo containers. The cost and efficiency assessment is employed to determine the most suitable countermeasures when the value of the security measures equal their cost. Note that ongoing research is still needed to establish better countermeasures since there is no end to the creativity of terrorists. The new technology, such as wireless sensors, will play an important role in the security system in the future. In particular, this study will help insurance and rail industries to model and manage risk profiles at critical infrastructure