Search and Matching Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy

I analyze optimal monetary policy in an economy with search and matching frictions in the labor market and staggered nominal wage and price contracts. In this framework, as opposed to the standard New Keynesian model, preset nominal wages need not have any effect on existing employment relationships. However, staggered bargaining of nominal wages distorts aggregate job creation and creates inefficient dispersion in hiring rates across firms. Targeting zero inflation (the optimal policy in the standard New Keynesian model) only magnifies these distortions. The optimal policy allows for non-zero inflation in response to real shocks, so as to reduce the rigidity of real wages. Quantitatively, the case against price stability as the sole goal of monetary policy turns out to be important.search and matching, New Keynesian, staggered nominal wage bargaining

Limited asset market participation: does it really matter for monetary policy?

We study the design of monetary policy in an economy characterized by staggered wage and price contracts together with limited asset market participation (LAMP). Contrary to previous results, we find that once nominal wage stickiness, an incontrovertible empirical fact, is considered: i) the Taylor Principle is restored as a necessary condition for equilibrium determinacy for any empirically plausible degree of LAMP; ii) the implications of LAMP for the design of optimal monetary policy are minor; iii) optimal interest rate rules become active no matter the degree of asset market participation. For these reasons we argue that LAMP is not particularly important for monetary policy.optimal monetary policy; sticky wages; non-Ricardian household; determinacy; optimal simple rules

Staggered Contracts and Business Cycle Persistence

Staggered price and staggered wage contracts are commonly viewed as similar mechanisms in generating persistent real effects of monetary shocks. In this paper, we distinguish the two mechanisms in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. We show that, although the dynamic price setting and wage setting equations are alike, a key parameter governing persistence is linked to the underlying preferences and technologies in different ways. Under the staggered wage mechanism, an intertemporal smoothing incentive in labor supply creates a real rigidity that is absent under the staggered price mechanism. Consequently, the two mechanisms have different implications on persistence. While the staggered price mechanism by itself does not contribute to, the staggered wage mechanism plays an important role in generating persistence.Staggered Contracts; Business Cycle Persistence; Monetary Policy

Trend Inflation, Wage and Price Rigidities, and Welfare

This paper studies the steady-state costs of inflation in a general-equilibrium model with real per capita output growth and staggered nominal price and wage contracts. Our analysis shows that trend inflation has important effects on the economy when combined with nominal contracts and real output growth. Steady-state output and welfare losses are quantitatively important even for low values of trend inflation. Further, we show that nominal wage contracting is quantitatively more important than nominal price contracting in generating these losses. This important result does not arise from price dispersion per se but from an effect of nominal output growth on the optimal markup of monopolistically competitive labour suppliers. We also demonstrate that accounting for productivity growth is important for calculating the welfare costs of inflation. Indeed, the presence of two percent productivity growth increases the welfare costs of inflation in our benchmark specification by a factor of four relative to the nogrowth case.Inflation: costs and benefits

Is there a persistence problem? Part 2: Maybe not

In Part 1 of this two-part series, Evan Koenig explains why some economists are skeptical that staggered price adjustment can account for monetary policy's sustained effects on aggregate economic activity. In Part 2, Koenig looks at labor-market imperfections as a possible source of persistence. He concludes that persistence is much easier to obtain if either labor cannot move freely from firm to firm or wages are set in overlapping wage contracts.Monetary policy ; Employment (Economic theory)

Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models

We use a micro-founded macroeconometric modeling framework to investigate the design of monetary policy when the central bank faces uncertainty about the true structure of the economy. We apply Bayesian methods to estimate the parameters of the baseline specification using postwar U.S. data, and then determine the policy under commitment that maximizes household welfare. We find that the performance of the optimal policy is closely matched by a simple operational rule that focuses solely on stabilizing nominal wage inflation. Furthermore, this simple wage stabilization rule is remarkably robust to uncertainty about the model parameters and to various assumptions regarding the nature and incidence of the innovations. However, the characteristics of optimal policy are very sensitive to the specification of the wage contracting mechanism, thereby highlighting the importance of additional research regarding the structure of labor markets and wage determination.

Persistence and Nominal Inertia in a Generalized Taylor Economy: How Longer Contracts Dominate Shorter Contracts

n this paper we develop the Generalize Taylor Economy (GTE) in which there are many sectors with overlapping contracts of different lengths. We are able to show that even in economies with the same average contract length, monetary shocks will be more persistent when there are longer contracts. In particular we are able to solve the puzzle of why Calvo contracts appear to be more persistent than simple Taylor contracts: it is because the standard calibration of Calvo contracts is not correctPersistence, Taylor contract, Calvo

Inflation dynamics and international linkages: a model of the United States, the euro area and Japan

In this paper we estimate a small macroeconometric model of the United States, the euro area and Japan with rational expectations and nominal rigidities due to staggered contracts. Comparing three popular contracting specifications we find that euro area and Japanese inflation dynamics are best explained by Taylor-style contracts, while Buiter-Jewitt/Fuhrer-Moore contracts perform somewhat better in fitting U.S. inflation dynamics. We are unable to fit Calvo-style contracts to inflation dynamics in any of the three economies without allowing either for ad-hoc persistence in unobservables or a significant backward-looking element. The completed model matches inflation and output dynamics in the United States, the euro area and Japan quite well. We then use it to evaluate the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy. Preliminary results, which are similar across the three economies, indicate little gain from a direct policy response to the exchange rate. JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58, E61

The Role of Money Demand in a Business Cycle Model with Staggered Wage Contracts

The question of the main determinants of persistent responses due to nominal shocks captures, at least since Chari et al. (2000), a major part of the recent macroeconomic debate. However, the question whether sticky wages and/or sticky prices are sufficient for persistent reactions of key economic variables remains open. In the present model we allow for nominal rigidities due to Taylor- like wage setting as well as price adjustment costs. However, as our analysis illustrates, smoothing marginal costs seems crucial to derive a contract multiplier, wage staggering alone is not sufficient. Without considering a more specific analysis of factor market frictions, we enforce a point made by Erceg (1997) by analyzing the structure of money demand. In particular, we analyze a `standard' consumption based money demand function by varying the interest rate elasticity of money demand as well as the steady state rate of money holdings. Our results show that the persistency of the output/price dynamics can be affected crucially by the form of the implicit money demand function. In particular, it is shown that staggered wage contracts have to be accompanied by a sufficiently low interest rate elasticity, otherwise the model fails to reproduce reasonable responses of real variables.Monetary Policy Shocks, Sticky Prices, Staggered Wages, Money Demand