A Deterministic Analysis of an Online Convex Mixture of Expert Algorithms

Cataloged from PDF version of article.We analyze an online learning algorithm that adaptively combines outputs of two constituent algorithms (or the experts) running in parallel to model an unknown desired signal. This online learning algorithm is shown to achieve (and in some cases outperform) the mean-square error (MSE) performance of the best constituent algorithm in the mixture in the steady-state. However, the MSE analysis of this algorithm in the literature uses approximations and relies on statistical models on the underlying signals and systems. Hence, such an analysis may not be useful or valid for signals generated by various real life systems that show high degrees of nonstationarity, limit cycles and, in many cases, that are even chaotic. In this paper, we produce results in an individual sequence manner. In particular, we relate the time-accumulated squared estimation error of this online algorithm at any time over any interval to the time-accumulated squared estimation error of the optimal convex mixture of the constituent algorithms directly tuned to the underlying signal in a deterministic sense without any statistical assumptions. In this sense, our analysis provides the transient, steady-state and tracking behavior of this algorithm in a strong sense without any approximations in the derivations or statistical assumptions on the underlying signals such that our results are guaranteed to hold. We illustrate the introduced results through examples. © 2012 IEEE

Universal Codes from Switching Strategies

We discuss algorithms for combining sequential prediction strategies, a task which can be viewed as a natural generalisation of the concept of universal coding. We describe a graphical language based on Hidden Markov Models for defining prediction strategies, and we provide both existing and new models as examples. The models include efficient, parameterless models for switching between the input strategies over time, including a model for the case where switches tend to occur in clusters, and finally a new model for the scenario where the prediction strategies have a known relationship, and where jumps are typically between strongly related ones. This last model is relevant for coding time series data where parameter drift is expected. As theoretical ontributions we introduce an interpolation construction that is useful in the development and analysis of new algorithms, and we establish a new sophisticated lemma for analysing the individual sequence regret of parameterised models