Chance-Constrained Outage Scheduling using a Machine Learning Proxy

Outage scheduling aims at defining, over a horizon of several months to years, when different components needing maintenance should be taken out of operation. Its objective is to minimize operation-cost expectation while satisfying reliability-related constraints. We propose a distributed scenario-based chance-constrained optimization formulation for this problem. To tackle tractability issues arising in large networks, we use machine learning to build a proxy for predicting outcomes of power system operation processes in this context. On the IEEE-RTS79 and IEEE-RTS96 networks, our solution obtains cheaper and more reliable plans than other candidates

Bayesian Methods for Analysis and Adaptive Scheduling of Exoplanet Observations

We describe work in progress by a collaboration of astronomers and statisticians developing a suite of Bayesian data analysis tools for extrasolar planet (exoplanet) detection, planetary orbit estimation, and adaptive scheduling of observations. Our work addresses analysis of stellar reflex motion data, where a planet is detected by observing the "wobble" of its host star as it responds to the gravitational tug of the orbiting planet. Newtonian mechanics specifies an analytical model for the resulting time series, but it is strongly nonlinear, yielding complex, multimodal likelihood functions; it is even more complex when multiple planets are present. The parameter spaces range in size from few-dimensional to dozens of dimensions, depending on the number of planets in the system, and the type of motion measured (line-of-sight velocity, or position on the sky). Since orbits are periodic, Bayesian generalizations of periodogram methods facilitate the analysis. This relies on the model being linearly separable, enabling partial analytical marginalization, reducing the dimension of the parameter space. Subsequent analysis uses adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and adaptive importance sampling to perform the integrals required for both inference (planet detection and orbit measurement), and information-maximizing sequential design (for adaptive scheduling of observations). We present an overview of our current techniques and highlight directions being explored by ongoing research.Comment: 29 pages, 11 figures. An abridged version is accepted for publication in Statistical Methodology for a special issue on astrostatistics, with selected (refereed) papers presented at the Astronomical Data Analysis Conference (ADA VI) held in Monastir, Tunisia, in May 2010. Update corrects equation (3

Neural Feedback Scheduling of Real-Time Control Tasks

Many embedded real-time control systems suffer from resource constraints and dynamic workload variations. Although optimal feedback scheduling schemes are in principle capable of maximizing the overall control performance of multitasking control systems, most of them induce excessively large computational overheads associated with the mathematical optimization routines involved and hence are not directly applicable to practical systems. To optimize the overall control performance while minimizing the overhead of feedback scheduling, this paper proposes an efficient feedback scheduling scheme based on feedforward neural networks. Using the optimal solutions obtained offline by mathematical optimization methods, a back-propagation (BP) neural network is designed to adapt online the sampling periods of concurrent control tasks with respect to changes in computing resource availability. Numerical simulation results show that the proposed scheme can reduce the computational overhead significantly while delivering almost the same overall control performance as compared to optimal feedback scheduling.Comment: To appear in International Journal of Innovative Computing, Information and Contro

On Multi-Step Sensor Scheduling via Convex Optimization

Effective sensor scheduling requires the consideration of long-term effects and thus optimization over long time horizons. Determining the optimal sensor schedule, however, is equivalent to solving a binary integer program, which is computationally demanding for long time horizons and many sensors. For linear Gaussian systems, two efficient multi-step sensor scheduling approaches are proposed in this paper. The first approach determines approximate but close to optimal sensor schedules via convex optimization. The second approach combines convex optimization with a \BB search for efficiently determining the optimal sensor schedule.Comment: 6 pages, appeared in the proceedings of the 2nd International Workshop on Cognitive Information Processing (CIP), Elba, Italy, June 201

Optimal Data Collection For Informative Rankings Expose Well-Connected Graphs

Given a graph where vertices represent alternatives and arcs represent pairwise comparison data, the statistical ranking problem is to find a potential function, defined on the vertices, such that the gradient of the potential function agrees with the pairwise comparisons. Our goal in this paper is to develop a method for collecting data for which the least squares estimator for the ranking problem has maximal Fisher information. Our approach, based on experimental design, is to view data collection as a bi-level optimization problem where the inner problem is the ranking problem and the outer problem is to identify data which maximizes the informativeness of the ranking. Under certain assumptions, the data collection problem decouples, reducing to a problem of finding multigraphs with large algebraic connectivity. This reduction of the data collection problem to graph-theoretic questions is one of the primary contributions of this work. As an application, we study the Yahoo! Movie user rating dataset and demonstrate that the addition of a small number of well-chosen pairwise comparisons can significantly increase the Fisher informativeness of the ranking. As another application, we study the 2011-12 NCAA football schedule and propose schedules with the same number of games which are significantly more informative. Using spectral clustering methods to identify highly-connected communities within the division, we argue that the NCAA could improve its notoriously poor rankings by simply scheduling more out-of-conference games.Comment: 31 pages, 10 figures, 3 table

A Modeling Framework for Schedulability Analysis of Distributed Avionics Systems

This paper presents a modeling framework for schedulability analysis of distributed integrated modular avionics (DIMA) systems that consist of spatially distributed ARINC-653 modules connected by a unified AFDX network. We model a DIMA system as a set of stopwatch automata (SWA) in UPPAAL to analyze its schedulability by classical model checking (MC) and statistical model checking (SMC). The framework has been designed to enable three types of analysis: global SMC, global MC, and compositional MC. This allows an effective methodology including (1) quick schedulability falsification using global SMC analysis, (2) direct schedulability proofs using global MC analysis in simple cases, and (3) strict schedulability proofs using compositional MC analysis for larger state space. The framework is applied to the analysis of a concrete DIMA system.Comment: In Proceedings MARS/VPT 2018, arXiv:1803.0866

Query-Driven Sampling for Collective Entity Resolution

Probabilistic databases play a preeminent role in the processing and management of uncertain data. Recently, many database research efforts have integrated probabilistic models into databases to support tasks such as information extraction and labeling. Many of these efforts are based on batch oriented inference which inhibits a realtime workflow. One important task is entity resolution (ER). ER is the process of determining records (mentions) in a database that correspond to the same real-world entity. Traditional pairwise ER methods can lead to inconsistencies and low accuracy due to localized decisions. Leading ER systems solve this problem by collectively resolving all records using a probabilistic graphical model and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference. However, for large datasets this is an extremely expensive process. One key observation is that, such exhaustive ER process incurs a huge up-front cost, which is wasteful in practice because most users are interested in only a small subset of entities. In this paper, we advocate pay-as-you-go entity resolution by developing a number of query-driven collective ER techniques. We introduce two classes of SQL queries that involve ER operators --- selection-driven ER and join-driven ER. We implement novel variations of the MCMC Metropolis Hastings algorithm to generate biased samples and selectivity-based scheduling algorithms to support the two classes of ER queries. Finally, we show that query-driven ER algorithms can converge and return results within minutes over a database populated with the extraction from a newswire dataset containing 71 million mentions