1,858 research outputs found
Multimodal Machine Learning for Automated ICD Coding
This study presents a multimodal machine learning model to predict ICD-10
diagnostic codes. We developed separate machine learning models that can handle
data from different modalities, including unstructured text, semi-structured
text and structured tabular data. We further employed an ensemble method to
integrate all modality-specific models to generate ICD-10 codes. Key evidence
was also extracted to make our prediction more convincing and explainable. We
used the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC -III) dataset
to validate our approach. For ICD code prediction, our best-performing model
(micro-F1 = 0.7633, micro-AUC = 0.9541) significantly outperforms other
baseline models including TF-IDF (micro-F1 = 0.6721, micro-AUC = 0.7879) and
Text-CNN model (micro-F1 = 0.6569, micro-AUC = 0.9235). For interpretability,
our approach achieves a Jaccard Similarity Coefficient (JSC) of 0.1806 on text
data and 0.3105 on tabular data, where well-trained physicians achieve 0.2780
and 0.5002 respectively.Comment: Machine Learning for Healthcare 201
Preterm Birth Prediction: Deriving Stable and Interpretable Rules from High Dimensional Data
Preterm births occur at an alarming rate of 10-15%. Preemies have a higher
risk of infant mortality, developmental retardation and long-term disabilities.
Predicting preterm birth is difficult, even for the most experienced
clinicians. The most well-designed clinical study thus far reaches a modest
sensitivity of 18.2-24.2% at specificity of 28.6-33.3%. We take a different
approach by exploiting databases of normal hospital operations. We aims are
twofold: (i) to derive an easy-to-use, interpretable prediction rule with
quantified uncertainties, and (ii) to construct accurate classifiers for
preterm birth prediction. Our approach is to automatically generate and select
from hundreds (if not thousands) of possible predictors using stability-aware
techniques. Derived from a large database of 15,814 women, our simplified
prediction rule with only 10 items has sensitivity of 62.3% at specificity of
81.5%.Comment: Presented at 2016 Machine Learning and Healthcare Conference (MLHC
2016), Los Angeles, C
Dipole: Diagnosis Prediction in Healthcare via Attention-based Bidirectional Recurrent Neural Networks
Predicting the future health information of patients from the historical
Electronic Health Records (EHR) is a core research task in the development of
personalized healthcare. Patient EHR data consist of sequences of visits over
time, where each visit contains multiple medical codes, including diagnosis,
medication, and procedure codes. The most important challenges for this task
are to model the temporality and high dimensionality of sequential EHR data and
to interpret the prediction results. Existing work solves this problem by
employing recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to model EHR data and utilizing
simple attention mechanism to interpret the results. However, RNN-based
approaches suffer from the problem that the performance of RNNs drops when the
length of sequences is large, and the relationships between subsequent visits
are ignored by current RNN-based approaches. To address these issues, we
propose {\sf Dipole}, an end-to-end, simple and robust model for predicting
patients' future health information. Dipole employs bidirectional recurrent
neural networks to remember all the information of both the past visits and the
future visits, and it introduces three attention mechanisms to measure the
relationships of different visits for the prediction. With the attention
mechanisms, Dipole can interpret the prediction results effectively. Dipole
also allows us to interpret the learned medical code representations which are
confirmed positively by medical experts. Experimental results on two real world
EHR datasets show that the proposed Dipole can significantly improve the
prediction accuracy compared with the state-of-the-art diagnosis prediction
approaches and provide clinically meaningful interpretation
Predicting diabetes-related hospitalizations based on electronic health records
OBJECTIVE: To derive a predictive model to identify patients likely to be hospitalized during the following year due to complications attributed to Type II diabetes. METHODS: A variety of supervised machine learning classification methods were tested and a new method that discovers hidden patient clusters in the positive class (hospitalized) was developed while, at the same time, sparse linear support vector machine classifiers were derived to separate positive samples from the negative ones (non-hospitalized). The convergence of the new method was established and theoretical guarantees were proved on how the classifiers it produces generalize to a test set not seen during training. RESULTS: The methods were tested on a large set of patients from the Boston Medical Center - the largest safety net hospital in New England. It is found that our new joint clustering/classification method achieves an accuracy of 89% (measured in terms of area under the ROC Curve) and yields informative clusters which can help interpret the classification results, thus increasing the trust of physicians to the algorithmic output and providing some guidance towards preventive measures. While it is possible to increase accuracy to 92% with other methods, this comes with increased computational cost and lack of interpretability. The analysis shows that even a modest probability of preventive actions being effective (more than 19%) suffices to generate significant hospital care savings. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive models are proposed that can help avert hospitalizations, improve health outcomes and drastically reduce hospital expenditures. The scope for savings is significant as it has been estimated that in the USA alone, about $5.8 billion are spent each year on diabetes-related hospitalizations that could be prevented.Accepted manuscrip
Supersparse Linear Integer Models for Optimized Medical Scoring Systems
Scoring systems are linear classification models that only require users to
add, subtract and multiply a few small numbers in order to make a prediction.
These models are in widespread use by the medical community, but are difficult
to learn from data because they need to be accurate and sparse, have coprime
integer coefficients, and satisfy multiple operational constraints. We present
a new method for creating data-driven scoring systems called a Supersparse
Linear Integer Model (SLIM). SLIM scoring systems are built by solving an
integer program that directly encodes measures of accuracy (the 0-1 loss) and
sparsity (the -seminorm) while restricting coefficients to coprime
integers. SLIM can seamlessly incorporate a wide range of operational
constraints related to accuracy and sparsity, and can produce highly tailored
models without parameter tuning. We provide bounds on the testing and training
accuracy of SLIM scoring systems, and present a new data reduction technique
that can improve scalability by eliminating a portion of the training data
beforehand. Our paper includes results from a collaboration with the
Massachusetts General Hospital Sleep Laboratory, where SLIM was used to create
a highly tailored scoring system for sleep apnea screeningComment: This version reflects our findings on SLIM as of January 2016
(arXiv:1306.5860 and arXiv:1405.4047 are out-of-date). The final published
version of this articled is available at http://www.springerlink.co
- …