Influenza Evolution and H3N2 Vaccine Effectiveness, with Application to the 2014/2015 Season

Influenza A is a serious disease that causes significant morbidity and mortality, and vaccines against the seasonal influenza disease are of variable effectiveness. In this paper, we discuss use of the $p_{\rm epitope}$ method to predict the dominant influenza strain and the expected vaccine effectiveness in the coming flu season. We illustrate how the effectiveness of the 2014/2015 A/Texas/50/2012 [clade 3C.1] vaccine against the A/California/02/2014 [clade 3C.3a] strain that emerged in the population can be estimated via pepitope. In addition, we show by a multidimensional scaling analysis of data collected through 2014, the emergence of a new A/New Mexico/11/2014-like cluster [clade 3C.2a] that is immunologically distinct from the A/California/02/2014-like strains.Comment: 19 pages, 4 figure

Mining Heterogeneous Multivariate Time-Series for Learning Meaningful Patterns: Application to Home Health Telecare

For the last years, time-series mining has become a challenging issue for researchers. An important application lies in most monitoring purposes, which require analyzing large sets of time-series for learning usual patterns. Any deviation from this learned profile is then considered as an unexpected situation. Moreover, complex applications may involve the temporal study of several heterogeneous parameters. In that paper, we propose a method for mining heterogeneous multivariate time-series for learning meaningful patterns. The proposed approach allows for mixed time-series -- containing both pattern and non-pattern data -- such as for imprecise matches, outliers, stretching and global translating of patterns instances in time. We present the early results of our approach in the context of monitoring the health status of a person at home. The purpose is to build a behavioral profile of a person by analyzing the time variations of several quantitative or qualitative parameters recorded through a provision of sensors installed in the home

Pattern vectors from algebraic graph theory

Graphstructures have proven computationally cumbersome for pattern analysis. The reason for this is that, before graphs can be converted to pattern vectors, correspondences must be established between the nodes of structures which are potentially of different size. To overcome this problem, in this paper, we turn to the spectral decomposition of the Laplacian matrix. We show how the elements of the spectral matrix for the Laplacian can be used to construct symmetric polynomials that are permutation invariants. The coefficients of these polynomials can be used as graph features which can be encoded in a vectorial manner. We extend this representation to graphs in which there are unary attributes on the nodes and binary attributes on the edges by using the spectral decomposition of a Hermitian property matrix that can be viewed as a complex analogue of the Laplacian. To embed the graphs in a pattern space, we explore whether the vectors of invariants can be embedded in a low- dimensional space using a number of alternative strategies, including principal components analysis ( PCA), multidimensional scaling ( MDS), and locality preserving projection ( LPP). Experimentally, we demonstrate that the embeddings result in well- defined graph clusters. Our experiments with the spectral representation involve both synthetic and real- world data. The experiments with synthetic data demonstrate that the distances between spectral feature vectors can be used to discriminate between graphs on the basis of their structure. The real- world experiments show that the method can be used to locate clusters of graphs

Clustering by compression

We present a new method for clustering based on compression. The method doesn't use subject-specific features or background knowledge, and works as follows: First, we determine a universal similarity distance, the normalized compression distance or NCD, computed from the lengths of compressed data files (singly and in pairwise concatenation). Second, we apply a hierarchical clustering method. The NCD is universal in that it is not restricted to a specific application area, and works across application area boundaries. A theoretical precursor, the normalized information distance, co-developed by one of the authors, is provably optimal but uses the non-computable notion of Kolmogorov complexity. We propose precise notions of similarity metric, normal compressor, and show that the NCD based on a normal compressor is a similarity metric that approximates universality. To extract a hierarchy of clusters from the distance matrix, we determine a dendrogram (binary tree) by a new quartet method and a fast heuristic to implement it. The method is implemented and available as public software, and is robust under choice of different compressors. To substantiate our claims of universality and robustness, we report evidence of successful application in areas as diverse as genomics, virology, languages, literature, music, handwritten digits, astronomy, and combinations of objects from completely different domains, using statistical, dictionary, and block sorting compressors. In genomics we presented new evidence for major questions in Mammalian evolution, based on whole-mitochondrial genomic analysis: the Eutherian orders and the Marsupionta hypothesis against the Theria hypothesis.Comment: LaTeX, 27 pages, 20 figure