Forecasting the real price of oil in a changing world: a forecast combination approach : [Version November 13, 2013]

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) regularly publishes monthly and quarterly forecasts of the price of crude oil for horizons up to two years, which are widely used by practitioners. Traditionally, such out-of-sample forecasts have been largely judgmental, making them difficult to replicate and justify. An alternative is the use of real-time econometric oil price forecasting models. We investigate the merits of constructing combinations of six such models. Forecast combinations have received little attention in the oil price forecasting literature to date. We demonstrate that over the last 20 years suitably constructed real-time forecast combinations would have been systematically more accurate than the no-change forecast at horizons up to 6 quarters or 18 months. MSPE reduction may be as high as 12% and directional accuracy as high as 72%. The gains in accuracy are robust over time. In contrast, the EIA oil price forecasts not only tend to be less accurate than no-change forecasts, but are much less accurate than our preferred forecast combination. Moreover, including EIA forecasts in the forecast combination systematically lowers the accuracy of the combination forecast. We conclude that suitably constructed forecast combinations should replace traditional judgmental forecasts of the price of oil

The Role of Geographic Proximity And Industrial Structure In Metropolitan Area Business Cycles

Measurement and prediction of aggregate economic fluctuations at the region, state, and metropolitan area level is a major challenge. As data quality and analytical techniques have improved, the analysis of coincident economic cycle indicators (CEI) has progressed from national to regional to state levels. This paper continues the trend of geographic disaggregation by constructing and analyzing CEI at the MSA level. The theoretical advantage of MSA level indexes is that they reflect labor market areas. Given lack of quarterly economic time series at the MSA level, we construct a new variable, the EPI (export price index). The EPI is an index number constructed to measure changes in the prices of goods produced by major industries located in metropolitan areas. Using non-agricultural employment and the EPI as MSA-specific variables, we are able to estimate following a Stock/Watson type single factor models. We find that, for larger states, with multiple MSAs, there is substantial variation in the amplitude and timing of cycles across MSAs. Further tests group MSAs within states by applying cluster analysis to the state series for the MSAs within a state. The groupings are interesting for two reasons. First, they confirm the differences observed within states. Secondly, and perhaps most important, the groupings of cyclically similar MSAs are not always based on geographic proximity as might be expected. It appears that industrial similarity of the MSA economies is also important for cyclical performance

Why are Prices Sticky? Evidence from Business Survey Data

This paper offers new insights on the price setting behaviour of German retail firms using a novel dataset that consists of a large panel of monthly business surveys from 1991-2006. The firm-level data allows matching changes in firms' prices to several other firm-characteristics. Moreover, information on price expectations allow analyzing the determinants of price updating. Using univariate and bivariate ordered probit specifications, empirical menu cost models are estimated relating the probability of price adjustment and price updating, respectively, to both time- and state- dependent variables. First, results suggest an important role for state-dependence; changes in the macroeconomic and institutional environment as well as firm-specific factors are significantly related to the timing of price adjustment. These findings imply that price setting models should endogenize the timing of price adjustment in order to generate realistic predictions concerning the transmission of monetary policy. Second, an analysis of price expectations yields similar results providing evidence in favour of state-dependent sticky plan models. Third, intermediate input cost changes are among the most important determinants of price adjustment suggesting that pricing models should explicitly incorporate price setting at different production stages. However, the results show that adjustment to input cost changes takes time indicating "additional stickiness" at the last stage of processing

Determinants of patent citations in biotechnology: An analysis of patent influence across the industrial and organizational boundaries

The present paper extends the literature investigating key drivers leading certain patents to exert a stronger influence on the subsequent technological developments (inventions) than other ones. We investigated six key determinants, as (i) the use of scientific knowledge, (ii) the breadth of the technological base, (iii) the existence of collaboration in patent development, (iv) the number of claims, (v) the scope, and (vi) the novelty, and how the effect of these determinants varies when patent influence—as measured by the number of forward citations the patent received—is distinguished as within and across the industrial and organizational boundaries. We conducted an empirical analysis on a sample of 5671 patents granted to 293 US biotechnology firms from 1976 to 2003. Results reveal that the contribution of the determinants to patent influence differs across the domains that are identified by the industrial and organizational boundaries. Findings, for example, show that the use of scientific knowledge negatively affects patent influence outside the biotechnology industry, while it positively contributes to make a patent more relevant for the assignee's subsequent technological developments. In addition, the broader the scope of a patent the higher the number of citations the patent receives from subsequent non-biotechnology patents. This relationship is inverted U-shaped when considering the influence of a patent on inventions granted to other organizations than the patent's assignee. Finally, the novelty of a patent is inverted-U related with the influence the patent exerts on the subsequent inventions granted across the industrial and organizational boundaries

Infrastructure investment in network industries: The role of incentive regulation and regulatory independence

This paper finds that coherent regulatory policies can boost investment in network industries of OECD economies. Rate-of-return regulation is generally thought to result in overinvestment, while incentive regulation is believed to entail underinvestment. Yet, previous empirical work has generally found that the introduction of incentive regulation has not systematically changed investment in network industries. According to the theoretical literature, regulatory uncertainty exposes both types of regimes to the danger of underinvestment. However, regulatory uncertainty is arguably higher under rate-of-return regulation because investment decisions (what can be included in the rate base) are usually evaluated in a discretionary manner, while firms operating under incentive regulation are less affected by this behaviour. In addition, incentive regulation encourages investment in cost-reducing technologies. Using Bayesian model averaging techniques, this paper shows that incentive regulation implemented jointly with an independent sector regulator (indicating lower regulatory uncertainty) has a strong positive impact on investment in network industries. In addition, lower barriers to entry are also found to encourage sectoral investment. These results support the importance of implementing policies in a coherent framework.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64379/1/wp956.pd

Performance Evaluation with Stochastic Discount Factors

We study the use of stochastic discount factor (SDF) models in evaluating the investment performance of portfolio managers. By constructing artificial mutual funds with known levels of investment ability, we evaluate a large set of SDF models. We find that the measures of performance are not highly sensitive to the SDF model, and that most of the models have a mild negative bias when performance is neutral. We use the models to evaluate a sample of U.S. equity mutual funds. Adjusting for the observed bias, we find that the average mutual fund has enough ability to cover its transactions costs. Extreme funds are more likely to have good rather than poor risk adjusted performance. Our analysis also reveals a number of implementation issues relevant to other applications of SDF models.

Real-time forecasting and political stock market anomalies: evidence for the U.S.

Using monthly data for the period 1953-2003, we apply a real-time modeling approach to investigate the implications of U.S. political stock market anomalies for forecasting excess stock returns. Our empirical findings show that political variables, selected on the basis of widely used model selection criteria, are often included in real-time forecasting models. However, they do not contribute to systematically improving the performance of simple trading rules. For this reason, political stock market anomalies are not necessarily an indication of market inefficiency. --Political stock market anomalies,predictability of stock returns,efficient markets hypothesis,real-time forecasting

Wage Setting Patterns and Monetary Policy: International Evidence

Systematic differences in the timing of wage setting decisions among industrialized countries provide an ideal framework to study the importance of wage rigidity in the transmission of monetary policy. The Japanese Shunto presents the most well-known case of bunching in wage setting decisions: From February to May, most firms set wages that remain in place until the following year; wage rigidity, thus, is relatively higher immediately after the Shunto. Similarly, in the United States, a large fraction of firms adjust wages in the last quarter of the calendar year. In contrast, wage agreements in Germany are well-spread within the year, implying a relatively uniform degree of rigidity. We exploit variation in the timing of wagesetting decisions within the year in Japan, the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and France to investigate the effects of monetary policy under different degrees of effective wage rigidity. Our findings lend support to the long-held, though scarcely tested, view that wage-rigidity plays a key role in the transmission of monetary policy.monetary policy, wage rigidity, seasonality

Evidence from surveys of price-setting managers: Policy lessons and directions for ongoing research

Understanding the determinants of individual price setting behaviour is crucial for the formulation of monetary policy, especially in an economy experiencing ongoing structural change. These behavioural mechanisms play a fundamental role in influencing the characteristics of aggregate inflation and in determining how monetary policy affects inflation and real economic activity. Thus, this line of research can strengthen the conceptual foundations of general equilibrium models with sticky prices, enabling these models to provide monetary policymakers with an increasingly useful framework for interpreting and forecasting the evolution of the macroeconomy. In this paper, we introduce the Walrasian model as a benchmark for comparison, and we discuss the extent to which recent micro evidence on firms’ price setting behavior provides significant support for some basic elements of the New Keynesian perspective. We then proceed to analyze the implications of the micro evidence in distinguishing between competing theories of price stickiness. Finally, the paper concludes with some brief reflections about the lessons for monetary policy.