Combined Accumulation- and Decumulation-Plans with Risk-Controlled Capital Protection

We base our analysis on an investor, usually a retiree, endowed with a certain amount of wealth W, who considers both his own consumption needs (fixed periodic withdrawals) and the requirement of his heirs (defined bequest). For this purpose he pursues the following in-vestment strategy. The part F is invested in a set of investment funds with the target to achieve an accumulated wealth at the end of a certain time horizon of at least the original amount of wealth W (or the fraction ), measured in real terms. As certain investment risks are implied, we allow for the probability of falling short of the target and implement it into our model as a risk control parameter. The remaining part MM of the original wealth is invested in money market funds in order to avoid additional investment risks and deliver fixed periodic withdrawals until the end of the respective time horizon. The optimal investment strategy is the investment fund allocation that satisfies the probability of shortfall and mini-mizes F, while maximizing the fixed periodic withdrawals. We outline this investment prob-lem in a mathematical model and illustrate the solution for a reasonable choice of empirical parameters.

Asset/Liability Management of German Life Insurance Companies: A Value-at-Risk Approach in the Presence of Interest Rate Guarantees

This contribution analyses the implications of two major determinants influencing the asset allocation decision of German life insurers, which are the capital market development on the one hand and the interest rate guarantees of the traditional life insurance policies on the other hand. The adverse development of the stock prices between 2000 and 2002 asks for a consideration of not only the �normal� volatility but also the worst-case developments in an asset/liability management. In order to meet the latter requirement, we technically apply the risk measures of Value-at-Risk and Conditional Value-at-Risk. German life insurance policies incorporate interest rate guarantees, which are granted on an annual basis. This specific �myopic� nature of guarantees creates � beyond the control of the shortfall risk in general � the necessity to manage the asset allocation on an annual basis to match the time horizon of assets and liabilities. A quantitative approach analyses the impacts on the asset allocation decision. In our research we do not only consider market valuation, but also institutional peculiarities (such as hidden reserves and accounting norms) of German life insurers. We reveal the possibility of a riskless one-year investment, either based on market values or on book values, to be crucial for guaranteeing interest rates on an annual basis.

More Thought - More Framing Effects?

Three studies investigate the impact of the amount of elaboration on framing effects. In all three studies, participants were exposed to decision scenarios similar to the �Asian disease� problem (Tversky & Kahneman, 1981). The results replicated previous findings: Participants avoided the risky option when the scenario was framed in terms of gains, but preferred the risky option when the scenario was framed in terms of losses. Most importantly, these effects were most pronounced when participants spent more time working on the decision, because of either increased elaboration time (Study 1 and 2) or increased processing motivation (Study 3). Moreover, increased elaboration increased framing effects only when the situation required the scenario to be enriched with additional information. The discussion focuses on the possibility that increased elaboration may not necessarily result in less bias in social judgment and decision making.

Trading Goods versus Sharing Money - An Experiment Testing Wether Fairness and Efficiency are Frame Dependent

Systematic experiments with distribution games (for a survey, see Roth, 1995) have shown that participants are strongly motivated by fairness and efficiency considerations. This evidence, however, results mainly from experimental designs asking directly for sharing monetary rewards. But even when not just one kind of monetary tokens is distributed efficiency and fairness are less influential. We investigate and confirm this frame dependency more systematically by comparing net-trade-proposals and payoff-proposals for the same exchange economy with two traders, two commodities and multi-period-negotiations.

A Note on the Equivalence of Rationalizability Concepts in Generalized Nice Games

Moulin (1984) describes the class of nice games for which the solution concept of point-rationalizability coincides with iterated elimination of strongly dominated strategies. As a consequence nice games have the desirable property that all rationalizability concepts determine the same strategic solution. However, nice games are characterized by rather strong assumptions. For example, only single-valued best responses are admitted and the individual strategy sets have to be convex and compact subsets of the real line R1. This note shows that equivalence of all rationalizability concepts can be extended to multi-valued best response correspondences. The surprising finding is that equivalence does not hold for individual strategy sets that are compact and convex subsets of Rn with n>1.

Surprises in a Growing Market Niche - An Evaluation of the German Private Annuities Market

High replacement rates from public old age insurance might lead to the belief that little room is left for private sector annuities in Germany. Taking a closer look, we find a small market with a surprisingly large variety of products. Due to the recent pension reform and future ones to come the market is projected to grow substantially in the upcoming years. This paper describes the available annuity contracts and determines their money’s worth for different subgroups of the population.

Behavioral Finance

Behavioral finance as a subdiscipline of behavioral economics is finance incorporating findings from psychology and sociology into its theories. Behavioral finance models are usually developed to explain investor behavior or market anomalies when rational models provide no sufficient explanations. To understand the research agenda, methodology, and contributions, this survey reviews traditional finance theory first. Then, this survey shows how modifications (e.g. incorporating market frictions) can rationally explain observed individual or market behavior. In the second section, the survey will explain the behavioral finance research methodology -how biases are modeled, incorporated into traditional finance theories, and tested empirically and experimentally- using one specific subset of the behavioral finance literature, the overconfidence literature.

A simple axiomatization and constructive representation proof for Choquet Expexted Utility

We provide a set of simple and intuitive axioms that allow for a direct and constructive proof of the Choquet Expected Utility representation for decision making under uncertainty

Are Amman Stock Exchange Investors Overconfident?

This study highlights the factors that affect investors' overconfidence. Since the overconfidence is considered one of the major psychological traits that impact the investment decision in Amman stock exchange, the importance of this study emerge through the importance of the investment decision itself. Accordingly, this paper studies overconfidence and number of its originators through structured questionnaire. The six factors we focus on include experience, financial knowledge, academic qualifications, opinions of financial advisors, and past performance of the stock. We randomly manage to get 250 respondents' sample of ASE traders. The results indicate that the investor overconfident is significantly increased by experience and financial knowledge factors. Keywords: Overconfidence, Amman Stock Exchange (ASE), Behavioral finance, Experience, Financial knowledge. JEL Classification: E4

Overconfidence of Professionals and Lay Men: Individual Differences Within and Between Tasks?

Overconfidence can manifest itself in various forms. For example, people think that their knowledge is more precise than it really is (miscalibration) and they believe that their abilities are above average (better than average effect). The questions whether judgment biases are related or whether stable individual differences in the degree of overconfidence exist, have long been unexplored. In this paper, we present two studies that analyze whether professional traders or investment bankers who work for international banks are prone to judgment biases to the same degree as a population of lay men. We examine whether there are robust individual differences in the degree of overconfidence within various tasks. Furthermore, we analyze whether the degree of judgment biases is correlated across tasks. Based on the answers of 123 professionals, we find that expert judgment is biased. In most tasks, their degrees of overconfidence are significantly higher than the respective scores of a student control group. In line with the literature, we find stable individual differences within tasks (e.g. in the degree of miscalibration). However, we find that correlations across distinct tasks are sometimes insignificant or even negative. We conclude that some manifestations of overconfidence, that are often argued to be related, are actually unrelated.