An Interventional Perspective on Identifiability in Gaussian LTI Systems with Independent Component Analysis

We investigate the relationship between system identification and intervention design in dynamical systems. While previous research demonstrated how identifiable representation learning methods, such as Independent Component Analysis (ICA), can reveal cause-effect relationships, it relied on a passive perspective without considering how to collect data. Our work shows that in Gaussian Linear Time-Invariant (LTI) systems, the system parameters can be identified by introducing diverse intervention signals in a multi-environment setting. By harnessing appropriate diversity assumptions motivated by the ICA literature, our findings connect experiment design and representational identifiability in dynamical systems. We corroborate our findings on synthetic and (simulated) physical data. Additionally, we show that Hidden Markov Models, in general, and (Gaussian) LTI systems, in particular, fulfil a generalization of the Causal de Finetti theorem with continuous parameters.Comment: CLeaR2024 camera ready. Code available at https://github.com/rpatrik96/lti-ic

Hypergraph Convolutional Networks for Fine-grained ICU Patient Similarity Analysis and Risk Prediction

The Intensive Care Unit (ICU) is one of the most important parts of a hospital, which admits critically ill patients and provides continuous monitoring and treatment. Various patient outcome prediction methods have been attempted to assist healthcare professionals in clinical decision-making. Existing methods focus on measuring the similarity between patients using deep neural networks to capture the hidden feature structures. However, the higher-order relationships are ignored, such as patient characteristics (e.g., diagnosis codes) and their causal effects on downstream clinical predictions. In this paper, we propose a novel Hypergraph Convolutional Network that allows the representation of non-pairwise relationships among diagnosis codes in a hypergraph to capture the hidden feature structures so that fine-grained patient similarity can be calculated for personalized mortality risk prediction. Evaluation using a publicly available eICU Collaborative Research Database indicates that our method achieves superior performance over the state-of-the-art models on mortality risk prediction. Moreover, the results of several case studies demonstrated the effectiveness of constructing graph networks in providing good transparency and robustness in decision-making.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, submitted to IEEE BIBM 202

Exploring Causal Influences

Recent data mining techniques exploit patterns of statistical independence in multivariate data to make conjectures about cause/effect relationships. These relationships can be used to construct causal graphs, which are sometimes represented by weighted node-link diagrams, with nodes representing variables and combinations of weighted links and/or nodes showing the strength of causal relationships. We present an interactive visualization for causal graphs (ICGs), inspired in part by the Influence Explorer. The key principles of this visualization are as follows: Variables are represented with vertical bars attached to nodes in a graph. Direct manipulation of variables is achieved by sliding a variable value up and down, which reveals causality by producing instantaneous change in causally and/or probabilistically linked variables. This direct manipulation technique gives users the impression they are causally influencing the variables linked to the one they are manipulating. In this context, we demonstrate the subtle distinction between seeing and setting of variable values, and in an extended example, show how this visualization can help a user understand the relationships in a large variable set, and with some intuitions about the domain and a few basic concepts, quickly detect bugs in causal models constructed from these data mining techniques

Derivation of diagnostic models based on formalized process knowledge

© IFAC.Industrial systems are vulnerable to faults. Early and accurate detection and diagnosis in production systems can minimize down-time, increase the safety of the plant operation, and reduce manufacturing costs. Knowledge- and model-based approaches to automated fault detection and diagnosis have been demonstrated to be suitable for fault cause analysis within a broad range of industrial processes and research case studies. However, the implementation of these methods demands a complex and error-prone development phase, especially due to the extensive efforts required during the derivation of models and their respective validation. In an effort to reduce such modeling complexity, this paper presents a structured causal modeling approach to supporting the derivation of diagnostic models based on formalized process knowledge. The method described herein exploits the Formalized Process Description Guideline VDI/VDE 3682 to establish causal relations among key-process variables, develops an extension of the Signed Digraph model combined with the use of fuzzy set theory to allow more accurate causality descriptions, and proposes a representation of the resulting diagnostic model in CAEX/AutomationML targeting dynamic data access, portability, and seamless information exchange

Simpson's Paradox, Lord's Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox

This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon – the reversal paradox – depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or enhanced when another variable is statistically controlled for. Understanding the concepts and theory behind these paradoxes provides insights into some controversial or contradictory research findings. These paradoxes show that prior knowledge and underlying causal theory play an important role in the statistical modelling of epidemiological data, where incorrect use of statistical models might produce consistent, replicable, yet erroneous results