Postprocessing of Ensemble Weather Forecasts Using Permutation-invariant Neural Networks

Statistical postprocessing is used to translate ensembles of raw numerical weather forecasts into reliable probabilistic forecast distributions. In this study, we examine the use of permutation-invariant neural networks for this task. In contrast to previous approaches, which often operate on ensemble summary statistics and dismiss details of the ensemble distribution, we propose networks which treat forecast ensembles as a set of unordered member forecasts and learn link functions that are by design invariant to permutations of the member ordering. We evaluate the quality of the obtained forecast distributions in terms of calibration and sharpness, and compare the models against classical and neural network-based benchmark methods. In case studies addressing the postprocessing of surface temperature and wind gust forecasts, we demonstrate state-of-the-art prediction quality. To deepen the understanding of the learned inference process, we further propose a permutation-based importance analysis for ensemble-valued predictors, which highlights specific aspects of the ensemble forecast that are considered important by the trained postprocessing models. Our results suggest that most of the relevant information is contained in few ensemble-internal degrees of freedom, which may impact the design of future ensemble forecasting and postprocessing systems.Comment: Submitted to Artificial Intelligence for the Earth System

Approximation-Generalization Trade-offs under (Approximate) Group Equivariance

The explicit incorporation of task-specific inductive biases through symmetry has emerged as a general design precept in the development of high-performance machine learning models. For example, group equivariant neural networks have demonstrated impressive performance across various domains and applications such as protein and drug design. A prevalent intuition about such models is that the integration of relevant symmetry results in enhanced generalization. Moreover, it is posited that when the data and/or the model may only exhibit $\textit{approximate}$ or $\textit{partial}$ symmetry, the optimal or best-performing model is one where the model symmetry aligns with the data symmetry. In this paper, we conduct a formal unified investigation of these intuitions. To begin, we present general quantitative bounds that demonstrate how models capturing task-specific symmetries lead to improved generalization. In fact, our results do not require the transformations to be finite or even form a group and can work with partial or approximate equivariance. Utilizing this quantification, we examine the more general question of model mis-specification i.e. when the model symmetries don't align with the data symmetries. We establish, for a given symmetry group, a quantitative comparison between the approximate/partial equivariance of the model and that of the data distribution, precisely connecting model equivariance error and data equivariance error. Our result delineates conditions under which the model equivariance error is optimal, thereby yielding the best-performing model for the given task and data