On the Whittle Index for Restless Multi-armed Hidden Markov Bandits

We consider a restless multi-armed bandit in which each arm can be in one of two states. When an arm is sampled, the state of the arm is not available to the sampler. Instead, a binary signal with a known randomness that depends on the state of the arm is available. No signal is available if the arm is not sampled. An arm-dependent reward is accrued from each sampling. In each time step, each arm changes state according to known transition probabilities which in turn depend on whether the arm is sampled or not sampled. Since the state of the arm is never visible and has to be inferred from the current belief and a possible binary signal, we call this the hidden Markov bandit. Our interest is in a policy to select the arm(s) in each time step that maximizes the infinite horizon discounted reward. Specifically, we seek the use of Whittle's index in selecting the arms. We first analyze the single-armed bandit and show that in general, it admits an approximate threshold-type optimal policy when there is a positive reward for the `no-sample' action. We also identify several special cases for which the threshold policy is indeed the optimal policy. Next, we show that such a single-armed bandit also satisfies an approximate-indexability property. For the case when the single-armed bandit admits a threshold-type optimal policy, we perform the calculation of the Whittle index for each arm. Numerical examples illustrate the analytical results.Comment: Revised version, corrected few typo

Learning in Restless Multi-Armed Bandits via Adaptive Arm Sequencing Rules

We consider a class of restless multi-armed bandit (RMAB) problems with unknown arm dynamics. At each time, a player chooses an arm out of N arms to play, referred to as an active arm, and receives a random reward from a finite set of reward states. The reward state of the active arm transits according to an unknown Markovian dynamics. The reward state of passive arms (which are not chosen to play at time t) evolves according to an arbitrary unknown random process. The objective is an arm-selection policy that minimizes the regret, defined as the reward loss with respect to a player that always plays the most rewarding arm. This class of RMAB problems has been studied recently in the context of communication networks and financial investment applications. We develop a strategy that selects arms to be played in a consecutive manner, dubbed Adaptive Sequencing Rules (ASR) algorithm. The sequencing rules for selecting arms under the ASR algorithm are adaptively updated and controlled by the current sample reward means. By designing judiciously the adaptive sequencing rules, we show that the ASR algorithm achieves a logarithmic regret order with time, and a finite-sample bound on the regret is established. Although existing methods have shown a logarithmic regret order with time in this RMAB setting, the theoretical analysis shows a significant improvement in the regret scaling with respect to the system parameters under ASR. Extensive simulation results support the theoretical study and demonstrate strong performance of the algorithm as compared to existing methods.Comment: A short version of this paper was presented at IEEE International Symposium on Information Theory (ISIT) 201

Sequential Decision Making with Limited Observation Capability: Application to Wireless Networks

This work studies a generalized class of restless multi-armed bandits with hidden states and allow cumulative feedback, as opposed to the conventional instantaneous feedback. We call them lazy restless bandits (LRB) as the events of decision-making are sparser than events of state transition. Hence, feedback after each decision event is the cumulative effect of the following state transition events. The states of arms are hidden from the decision-maker and rewards for actions are state dependent. The decision-maker needs to choose one arm in each decision interval, such that long term cumulative reward is maximized. As the states are hidden, the decision-maker maintains and updates its belief about them. It is shown that LRBs admit an optimal policy which has threshold structure in belief space. The Whittle-index policy for solving LRB problem is analyzed; indexability of LRBs is shown. Further, closed-form index expressions are provided for two sets of special cases; for more general cases, an algorithm for index computation is provided. An extensive simulation study is presented; Whittle-index, modified Whittle-index and myopic policies are compared. Lagrangian relaxation of the problem provides an upper bound on the optimal value function; it is used to assess the degree of sub-optimality various policies